New poll of California Democrats shows Bernie Sanders leading as Elizabeth Warren nosedives

[Hassin Bin Sober]

New poll of California Democrats shows Bernie Sanders leading as Elizabeth Warren nosedives

https://m.sfgate.com/politics/article/Bernie-Sanders-Elizabeth-Warren-poll-California-14884628.php?utm_campaign=CMS%20Sharing%20Tools%20(Mobile)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral


Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is slipping in both national and early state polls, and it looks like the slide in support is happening in California as well.

A new poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies conducted for the Los Angeles Times shows that Warren lost seven percentage points since the poll was last conducted in September, and is no longer leading the Democratic primary field.

The new leader is Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is up five percentage points since the poll was last conducted.

Here are top five candidates from the poll:

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders - 24 percent (up five percentage points since September)
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren - 22 percent (down seven percentage points since September)
Former Vice President Joe Biden - 14 percent (down six percentage points since September)
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg - 12 percent (up six percentage points since September)
California Sen. Kamala Harris - 7 percent (down one percentage point since September)
The poll of nearly 1,700 registered California Democrats was conducted before Harris dropped out of the race on Tuesday. No other candidate received more than 3 percent support.

[at140]

1. 2 point diff between Bernie & Liz?

Hardly a nose dive, it is within MOE (margin of error).

[George II]

10. Plus it's a month old, too, before CALIFORNIA Senator Harris dropped out.

[squirecam]

28. I find it funny

That sanders supporters are angry that CNN reportedly used an old Iowa poll....but they are using an old CA poll from when Harris dropped out.....

[sheshe2]

2. ... nt

[David__77]

3. Great to see Sanders and Warren in the top two spots.

...

[George II]

11. They're not.

[David__77]

14. Sanders certainly is.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-6879.html#polls

Of course, the voters will have their say.

[George II]

15. Sorry, 21.2 is higher than 21.0

[David__77]

17. Right.

...

[George II]

19. Indeed. Here you go:

[David__77]

21. Right.

...

[George II]

22. Right.

[David__77]

25. Agree!

...

[TwilightZone]

4. The poll isn't new. The article links to a 12/5 story at the LA Times.

It's the Berkeley poll from 11/21 - 11/27 that looks like an outlier.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-6879.html

Pretty obvious that it's old considering that Harris was still in it.

[squirecam]

29. Yep

Nt

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

5. Say it ain't so Joe!! Bernie & Elizabeth CRUSHIN' IT in Cali... they're gonna make a great team!!

It's going to be a Super Tuesday blowout for them... strike up the band!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[George II]

8. Well, it AIN'T so! Read the link and the links IN the link. This is a month old, and Biden is still

ON TOP!

Yeah Joe, .

[George II]

6. This is interesting, according to RCP, this is the result of the same poll dated 11/21-11/27:

Biden 14
Sanders 24
Warren 22

That poll was a MONTH ago! Look at the link in your link:

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-12-05/democrats-2020-race-california-poll

DECEMBER 5, three weeks ago! What does this accomplish? Nothing positive.

BTW, the RCP average as of TODAY, December 23, is Biden 21.2, Sanders 21.0, Warren 19.6.

Sorry to disappoint.

[highplainsdem]

12. Thanks, George. Btw, that RCP average you gave is just the California average, with the top 3 so

close.

Nationally, as of today, the RCP average is Biden 27.8, Sanders 19.3, Warren 15.2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html


FiveThirtyEight's average, nationally as of today is Biden 26.8, Sanders 17.9, Warren 14.5.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

[George II]

13. By midnight on March 3 I suspect Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. will be our presumptive nominee.

[Green Line]

23. I sure hope so

[highplainsdem]

7. That "new poll" was done last month, before Harris dropped out of the race. Polling was done

Nov. 21-27, and the poll was originally released Dec. 5.

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4bn38460

The A-rated CNN poll done later, Dec. 4-8 and NOT including Harris, had Biden leading:

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/12/11/rel1_ca.pdf


The CNN poll is the most recent A-rated poll of California.

There have been a couple of polls since, one C-rated showing Sanders leading, another unrated by 538, showing Warren leading. Neither Warren nor Sanders had much of a lead over their two closest rivals in those polls.

Given the differing poll results, California still looks like a tossup, and it's likely the top 3 candidates will divide the state's delegates fairly evenly.

[George II]

9. Oh c'mon, you have to ruin the fun!

[NurseJackie]

16. Haaaaaa!

[revmclaren]

18. Before it was Bernie math...

Now it's Bernie calendars.



ONLY!!! 2019 and beyond.

[Hav]

20. Seems like a lazy writer had to produce something before the Christmas break

I don't blame the OP here on DU because the article was written recently. But why would the writer make this story out of an almost 3 weeks old article about a poll taken in the previous month? He even realized that Harris had dropped out after the poll was conducted...Harris dropped out 3 weeks ago.

[ChubbyStar]

24. Eric Ting is not a lazy writer

Have you been published lately? Oh and welcome back to DU.

[Hav]

26. Ok, after reading the article again,

I think that it's possible that this site sat on the story for 2 weeks before publishing it, so I take back the lazy attack.

And what do you mean with welcome back? I've been a member for some time, relatively active over the years and was never banned. It's strange seeing that at least the third time this year.

[TwilightZone]

27. Hav has been here about 15 years longer than you have.

You might want to check profiles before making silly assertions.