Sanders will get no establishment support at the Convention

[Alhena]

Which means he doesn't just have to beat Biden, he has to beat him to such an extent that all the establishment influence at the convention won't be able to take the nomination from him. In fact, there have been a number of reports that Obama would speak out publicly against Sanders to stop him from being the nominee:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/obama-bernie-sanders-2020-nomination_n_5ddd31a1e4b00149f724793b

I really don't see Sanders getting enough support to overcome this kind of establishment opposition.

[Amimnoch]

1. If the numbers are right, most will

Especially if BS is polling better than Biden in the battleground states, and has the majority of elected delegates, I seriously doubt many won’t jump on.

I so don’t see that happening though.

[HerbChestnut]

2. If this is true, then the DNC is just asking for a repeat of 2016.

Unbelievable...

[dware]

3. How so?

Joe Biden has a far better chance of beating that Mango Menace than BS does, whether we like it or not, America is a center left nation and will not vote for an avowed socialist, so your statement is false.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

4. So you are saying you see NO problems

with Bernie being the winner coming out of the primaries but not being selected as the nominee because of the "establishment"? You don't think people will have a problem with that?

[dware]

8. What I'm saying is this is all moot,

BS isn't going to get enough delegates to become the nominee.

There is no danger of the scenario the OP has laid out.

[HerbChestnut]

10. Humor us.

[dware]

13. Ok.

2 drunks walk into a bar...........................

[George II]

23. Two bagels were walking down the street, one was a salted.

[highplainsdem]

16. There's nothing in the article to suggest that if Sanders is actually the winner coming out of the

primaries (which is extremely unlikely), the Democratic establishment will try to block him from getting the nomination.

But no one should be surprised if various members of the Democratic establishment speak out during the primaries against someone who usually runs as an independent (especially if it looks likely that candidate would lose the GE).

The Democratic Party is NOT going to become the Sanders Party. Even if Sanders somehow wins the nomination and by some further miracle wins the GE, you aren't going to see the kind of submission to Sanders that GOP lawmakers have made to Trump (if they haven't given up on their political careers instead).

Sanders himself has admitted in the past that it would take a revolution of sorts for his policy ideas to become reality. The Democratic Party is not going to transform into a democratic socialist party.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

18. From the OP

Which means he doesn't just have to beat Biden, he has to beat him to such an extent that all the establishment influence at the convention won't be able to take the nomination from him.

How does that not mean that Sanders just can be the winner coming out of the primaries, but has to REALLY beat Biden by a lot of votes in order for the establishment to not screw Sanders?

[highplainsdem]

19. Please read more carefully. I referred to the article, not the OP's interpretation of it, which I

don't agree with.

[beastie boy]

41. I can see a problem IF:

1. Bernie wins the Primaries AND
2. Bernie is not selectd as the nominee AND
3. The "establishment" is responsible for denying him the nomination

Otherwise I don't see a problem, and I don't think rank and file will see a problem.

But I do see a problem with an Independent switching party affiliation just long enough to run in the Democratic Primaries. And the Democratic Party "establishment" has managed to work around this problem. So let's not get overly concerned about a problem before it becomes a problem.

[Eliot Rosewater]

52. And if he isnt ahead will we see people claim he was cheated, again? When in fact he wasnt?

Is this a no win situation for the D party?

Sounds like it. sigh

[thesquanderer]

12. re: "Joe Biden has a far better chance of beating that Mango Menace"

Based on current polling, he has a better chance, but not a FAR better chance. Polling nationally against Trump as well as specifically in swing states, and cross-party polling of favorability vs. unfavorability, all indicate Biden and Sanders both doing well against Trump, with Biden only a bit ahead of Sanders overall.

[highplainsdem]

17. Considering that this is likely to be a close GE, being even a bit ahead of Sanders in GE polling

gives Biden a much better chance of beating Trump.

Especially since Trump and the Republicans have been waging a GE style campaign against Biden for months already, spending millions of dollars on ads, and they've barely paid attention to Sanders and the other candidates because they're much less worried about them.

[Doitnow]

26. Plus, polls show that on the ISSUES, Sanders will push for what most Americans want.

[beastie boy]

45. What polls? Any examples that will include specific issues and most Americans?

[George II]

6. There's only one person who can make this "a repeat of 2016". One.

[HerbChestnut]

9. If Bernie comes out of the primaries with the most delegates heading into the convention

But the DNC chooses Biden instead, how do you think that will go over with Sanders supporters?

[George II]

11. Nothing less than the nomination will "go over with Sander supporters".

[HerbChestnut]

14. I see we're dodging questions today.

[George II]

21. It's a hypothetical that simply will never happen.

[OldRed2450]

27. If Biden has just 2 delegates more than Bernie what do you think should happen?

[Demsrule86]

40. The candidate with the most delegates wins...period.

Biden wins. That is how it must be. but it won't be that close or close at all .

[OldRed2450]

50. Hillary won Nevada by 20%

But Bernie's campaign still tried to steal it at the State convention

[Demsrule86]

54. There is no caucus this time...and he can't steal it.

[OldRed2450]

56. It was a primary

Hillary won by 20, they tried to steal it at the state convention because Hillary's delegates showed up late.

[Demsrule86]

66. The delegates were awarded proportionately...Sanders took I think it was about 15 delegates to

Clinton's 19...they were fighting over a handful of delegates...he was never getting all of them.

[Demsrule86]

68. The delegates are awarded for the caucus ...last year ...the primary was moot...it was much closer

than the primary because caucuses suck...they had both a caucus and a primary. But only the caucus counted in terms of delegates. This year there is only a primary.

[Demsrule86]

30. Sanders is not going to win more delegates...he will get zero delegates in some primaries and there

are few caucuses this time. He is way behind in the AA vote too. This is why the left talks about a Warren/ Sanders team...and that won't fly and it shouldn't. Running for president is not a team sport. If Sanders or Warren wants to drop out to give the other an an advantage I think a fair number of Warren supporters won't support Sanders should she fail to win the nomination)...then do it...but you don't get to combine votes and the candidate with the most delegates will be our nominee...and that would include Sanders if he won the primary. I find this sort of thing ridiculous and Sanders was my second choice, but no more.

I will support any nominee in the general, but won't support anyone but Biden in the primary and just so some know...all the switching of whom they support in the primary doesn't fool anyone. Also, the OP's interpretation of the article is a bit of a stretch IMHO...suggest everyone read it themselves. Every candidate must get behind the nominee and that includes Sanders and his supporters whether he is the nominee or not. Trump must go.

At it's core, this article is an attack on the DNC and convention and it makes me angry that anyone would do this. Do we want a 2016 kind of loss and to give Trump four more years? Any of our candidates would be better than Trump by a country mile as my Mother used to say. Vote for the candidate who can beat Trump period. Support any nominee and if any feel like attacking Perez or the DNC just stop. We don't need that divisive shit.

[Demsrule86]

44. The DNC doesn't choose a candidate...there is a vote...those delegates assigned to Sanders

vote for him...should he not have enough to win with the required amount, the supers put him over in the second vote...they vote for the candidate with the most delegates...that is true no matter who the nominee is...Sanders won't win he has from what I can tell half the vote he had last time in a crowded field.

[Demsrule86]

46. What is unbelievable is the posting of this article ...completely fact free, an attack on both the

DNC (Perez) and Obama and very very divisive. That is the entire point to divide and muddy the water. Apparently the author of the piece is OK if Trump wins again.

[Demsrule86]

65. The article is based on a Ryan Lizza article and it doesn't say anything about the

convention. Read the article...or if it is too long which it is ...google Sander's name.

[George II]

5. That "article" is based on absolutely no facts:

Former President Barack Obama, who has so far taken a neutral position publicly on the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, privately indicated he would speak up to stop Bernie Sanders

Asked whether Obama would really step in to prevent a Sanders nomination, one adviser told Lizza that he “can’t really confirm that.”

“He hasn’t said that directly to me,” said the adviser, who was not identified.

Another close Obama friend reportedly told Lizza that “Bernie’s not a Democrat.”

Behind closed doors, Obama and his advisers have assessed the various Democratic contenders. For instance, they reportedly said Biden lacks an intimate bond with the electorate, especially in Iowa. And Obama is “deeply skeptical” about South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s chances, Lizza wrote.

I don't understand the point of posting this "article".

[Doitnow]

28. Check the ISSUES and see if Bernie isn't what most people want.

[Demsrule86]

31. Then he should win the primary...and if he does...so be it. But if he doesn't than he needs to

support the nominee. Personally, I don't think he is what most people want.

[JustAnotherGen]

7. I'm going to wait and see

I'm also not certain President Obama would do that. I think he understands - Senator Sanders would be better than Trump.

Sanders is NOT in my top five (Biden is) - but if the is the Nominee?

I'm voting like my life depends on it. Our Republic cannot withstand four more years of this traitor in the White House.

I'm hoping by the time the primary comes around to me (June) it's pretty much locked down.

We need to pivot to GE spending and fund raising very quickly next year. I'm in the NJ 7th and our Congressman (Malinowski) won't have a primary challenger. Neither will our Council Candidate of choice.

Through June - it's all about them (I'm a Democratic Committee Member). After June my focus will be 50% Presidential, 25% Malinowski, and 25% Council Candidate.


ETA - Thanks for posting this. Most of my Primary Knowledge comes from here and another site of like minded people. I don't trust the talking heads or pollsters.

[Recursion]

15. It's ironic, because people thought the rules change would help Bernie

But the new delegate rules will basically make his winning impossible.

[Demsrule86]

33. The rules were changed to prevent a brokered convention because we lose if this

happens...has nothing to do with any candidate...when they changed the super's rules...something had to be done to prevent anyone from gaming the system... I think it will work...the nominee with the most delegates will be our nominee as he/she should.

[Recursion]

47. Huh? The rules nearly guarantee a brokered convention

If their intent was to prevent one, that was an epic fail. All delegates are released after the first ballot. It's back to smoke-filled rooms if someone doesn't come in with a pledged supermajority.

[Demsrule86]

55. The supers will put over the nominee with the most votes in any second vote...and it won't be close

either.

[crazytown]

20. Warren would get Sander's support, I'm guessing,

if she has more delegates than him.

[Demsrule86]

36. I don't think she would...he would try to force a deal on her most likely...and you can't have

candidates winning with delegate from failing candidates....the individual who has the most delegates at the end of the day wins or we lose the general. Any candidate is free to drop out to improve the chances of a different candidate...but I have heard some Warren supporters say they won't vote for her if her delegates go to Sanders. I am not convinced either's supporters will support the other. I am hoping that all will be gone except for two candidates. This is the best way to win a general...and I hope to God if it becomes clear that Sanders can't win, he suspends his campaign. I know Warren would do the right thing no matter what.

[oasis]

22. Any support must be earned. nt

[highplainsdem]

24. +1,000,000

[Voltaire2]

25. Odd that this 'establishment' you speak of

exists sometimes and other times is denounced as an invention of the ‘far left’.

[BeyondGeography]

29. Lol

Maybe it’s one of those things that’s only there when you need it.

[George II]

34. Why would he want the support of those he's been condemning for decades?

[Voltaire2]

60. So is there an establishment?

[George II]

61. In his eyes and the eyes of some others, yes.

[Voltaire2]

71. You appear to be unable to answer simple questions.

[Me.]

32. Why Should He

He keeps insulting them , saying how terrible they are.

[Wawannabe]

35. He'll keep running anyway

Has already said it.

If he isn’t nominee then he and his supporters will make the same fucking mess they did in 2016. Pathetic, angry old man. Needs to go home.

[Demsrule86]

38. I had hoped he wouldn't run...so now let's hope that he has so few delegate that he has to drop out

when it becomes clear, he won't be the nominee in 20. We must get rid of Trump.

[BeckyDem]

37. If this is true, it would be a travesty for our democracy.

Why would Obama want to go against the will of the people?

[Demsrule86]

39. He wouldn't. Obama will be behind any nominee. This is a hit job against the DNC

and fact free...also an attack on Obama which I bitterly resent. It won't have the effect they think it will ...Sanders was my number two in the primary...now I have no number two...he gets my vote only in a general.

[BeckyDem]

43. I'll be watching, we have a long way to go.

[Demsrule86]

59. The politico article which you can read says no such thing...complete made up BS. It is

three weeks old too...and was really popular in right wing circles.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2019/11/26/barack-obama-2020-democrats-candidates-biden-073025


"Publicly, he has been clear that he won’t intervene in the primary for or against a candidate, unless he believed there was some egregious attack. “I can't even imagine with this field how bad it would have to be for him to say something,” said a close adviser. Instead, he sees his role as providing guardrails to keep the process from getting too ugly and to unite the party when the nominee is clear. There is one potential exception: Back when Sanders seemed like more of a threat than he does now, Obama said privately that if Bernie were running away with the nomination, Obama would speak up to stop him. (Asked about that, a spokesperson for Obama pointed out that Obama recently said he would support and campaign for whoever the Democratic nominee is.)"

[Gothmog]

42. There are a large number of real democrats who will not support sanders

I doubt that sanders would get the support of many super delegates if there is a brokered convention. I was at Philadelphia and there are some people still unhappy about how sanders and his supporters acted at that convention

[ritapria]

48. Sanders wants to create a New Party Establishment

Bernie wants to eject the Donor Class and replace them with the working Class ... The Donor Class owns 1 Party .. Should they own both parties ? The working class need MFA , the 15 dollar an hour minimum wage , the jobs created by a Green New Deal that helps save the Planet … The Donor Class pushed the Party to support the Iraq War, NAFTA, Repeal of Glass/ Stegall , The Bankruptcy Bill … …. A Clean Break from the Past ? Or more of the Same ? .. A status quo so unacceptable that we lost to an Orange Reality TV Host being impeached today

[LanternWaste]

53. Well, if any establishment, beltway-insider politician can do that, I s'pose BS can as well as any.

[Demsrule86]

64. Did you read the Lizza aticle? Google Sanders...it appears twice and it doesn't say what is in the

OP. The link is https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2019/11/26/barack-obama-2020-democrats-candidates-biden-073025

[Demsrule86]

49. Updated...I realized that I had missed the fact that there are not two article but that

Last edited Wed Dec 18, 2019, 02:20 PM - Edit history (1)

this one is from November 26...it is three weeks old! An old fact free article...and of course it is based on a Politico story...Ryan Lizza spoke to etc etc...worthless. All the other stuff is simply made up...no establishment discussion at all.




I read the article from politico...very long and this is where this idea comes from...this one paragraph so the entire thing is BS.


"Publicly, he has been clear that he won’t intervene in the primary for or against a candidate, unless he believed there was some egregious attack. “I can't even imagine with this field how bad it would have to be for him to say something,” said a close adviser. Instead, he sees his role as providing guardrails to keep the process from getting too ugly and to unite the party when the nominee is clear. There is one potential exception: Back when Sanders seemed like more of a threat than he does now, Obama said privately that if Bernie were running away with the nomination, Obama would speak up to stop him. (Asked about that, a spokesperson for Obama pointed out that Obama recently said he would support and campaign for whoever the Democratic nominee is.)"

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2019/11/26/barack-obama-2020-democrats-candidates-biden-073025

[Act_of_Reparation]

51. Fascinating.

[aikoaiko]

57. HuffPo reporting on another reporters conversation with an anonymous source about Obama

Apparently no one tried to confirm with Obama.

How weird is that.

Sounds like serious bullshit.

[Demsrule86]

62. And the article says not a word about support at the convention...it should be deleted.

[Demsrule86]

63. Given me a link or a quote where the convention is even discussed in Ryan Lizza's article...

which is merely a quote by an unnamed source and is denied in the Lizza article by an Obama spokesperson. This post is divisive and the facts are not supported by the article.

'Back when Sanders seemed like more of a threat than he does now, Obama said privately that if Bernie were running away with the nomination, Obama would speak up to stop him. (Asked about that, a spokesperson for Obama pointed out that Obama recently said he would support and campaign for whoever the Democratic nominee is.)'

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2019/11/26/barack-obama-2020-democrats-candidates-biden-073025

[Politicub]

67. The winner of the primaries should be our nominee.

In the article at the link you posted, President Obama agrees:

Publicly, Obama has said he would support whoever becomes the Democratic nominee.

“Look, we have a field of very accomplished, very serious and passionate and smart people who have a history of public service, and whoever emerges from the primary process I will work my tail off to make sure that they are the next president,” he told a crowd at a Democracy Alliance event in Washington earlier this month.

That includes Sanders, someone familiar with Obama’s thinking told HuffPost.

[Demsrule86]

69. Thank you! The entire post is designed by the OP to mislead (no facts and very little truth) and

divide...it is also three weeks old.

[PDittie]

70. I'm not concerned

The people far outnumber "the establishment", and we're past the days of leaders being chosen in cigar smoke-filled rooms. Now it's certainly possible that there will be a hung convention, and the superdelegates will join the second ballot and perhaps thwart the vote of the people and their delegates -- lots more rumor-mongering to that effect than this -- but it's much too early to be worried about any of that at this time.