CNN: Trump could lose Texas 'if the Democrats nominate Biden'

[Gothmog]

I believe that Texas will be a battleground state if we nominate Joe Biden. I and good number of real democrats have been working hard to turn Texas blue. Normal Demographic trends show that Texas will be blue in 2024 but trump is accelerating the process. After the 2010 election, the GOP had 101 seats in the Texas state house compared to 49 seats held by Democrats. We picked up 12 seats in the state house in 2018 and need only 9 more seats to take control of the Texas house. We picked up two congressional seats (Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred) and the DCCC has targeted 6 seats for pickup. If we nominate Biden, Texas will be a battleground state

Link to tweet

CNN analysts believe the Republican stronghold of Texas could turn on President Trump if the Democratic Party picks Joe Biden as its nominee.

While announcing the findings of their latest poll, CNN wrote, “But perhaps the biggest story from our poll is that the formerly deep-red state of Texas looks competitive in the general election if the Democrats nominate Biden.”

CNN’s latest poll found that Biden, 77, and Trump, 73, were in a tight race in the typically red state of Texas. The poll showed 48% of Texans backing Trump in 2020, while Biden had the support of 47% of respondents.

Trump’s support was reflected in his favorability. The poll showed Trump has a 49% approval rating and a 48% disapproval rating in the state. CNN’s poll showed Biden closing the gap between him and the president compared to a Quinnipiac poll from June that showed him trailing the president by 4% with 44% support compared to Trump’s 48% support.

Other 2020 Democrats did not do as well in a hypothetical matchup against Trump. The poll showed Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, all down 7% against the president.

[Thekaspervote]

1. Happy dance 💃

[Gothmog]

2. I am working on two state house seats and one congressional campaign

We can flip all of these seats if Joe Biden is the nominee. If Joe is NOT the nominee, then I fear that we will lose these races and may lose Lizzie's and Colin's seats

[redstateblues]

3. Joe would have the best shot but as much as I'd like to believe it

i would trust the Q poll over the CNN poll. That 4% margin is more realistic. It’s more in line with Beto’s margin in his Senate run

[evertonfc]

4. As a 2016 Sanders

supporter, I'm working my ass off for Joe. I'm hearing this from operatives in Florida and Arizona too. If we screw around and nominate our asses are grass.

[LongtimeAZDem]

5. If it happens, Biden wins in a landslide, but I'm not going to get too optimistic about it

[Gothmog]

6. I want to flip the Texas House and elect a few more Texas congresscritters

I am working on two state house races and one congressional race. That is in addition to donating to Lizzie and Colin. We can make Texas a battleground state which would help these down ballot races. If the Democratic party nominates sanders or Warren as the nominee, we can kiss these down ballot races goodbye

[efhmc]

35. Biden is the ONLY person who can win Texas. After that we can work for more

progressive people.

[fallout87]

7. going to be a negative nancy here.....

Hillary Clinton topped tRump in a washington post poll in Texas, and we know how that turned out.

[Cha]

8. That was then.. this is now.

[fallout87]

9. So the polls were wrong then

but now they are right?

Texas is slowly turning blue, but it won't be in 2020

[Cha]

11. I didn't say that.

[Vogon_Glory]

10. True, we lost, but

The numbers were closer in 2016 than the time before, and the country has had nearly three years of Donnie.

Donnie is a lightning rod for progressives and centrists the way that the Clintons were for the the Righties. The chest-thumping, gun-humping, Bible-waving Right might be in love with Donnie, but the cities and suburbs are getting fed up.

[efhmc]

36. So true. It is painfully slow but it will happen.

But if you throw a (to my fellow Texans) a hard left winger into the fight, we will lose once again.

[Gothmog]

12. Romney won Texas in 2012 by over 16%

trump was held to 9% in 2016. Beto lost to Carnival Cruz by 3%. I like this trend

[democrattotheend]

41. Exactly. Especially when you consider that Obama did so much better overall in 2012

than Hillary did in 2016, yet she cut the loss in Texas by nearly half. I remember noticing that and thinking it was promising. If we can force Trump to defend it this year that alone would be beneficial, though probably less so than in the past when candidates took public funding.

[Sloumeau]

13. Gothmog, thanks for this great post! :)

This is good news for Joe Biden!

[UniteFightBack]

14. Democrats being competitive in Texas is a trend line I like to see!!! nt

[Scruffy1]

19. Texas is like other states.

I live in El Paso which went 80% Dem in 2018. With the thing whose name I can't even stand to type It might be even higher in the next one. A lot of our voters are military since we have Fort Bliss. Houston, Dallas and Austin are also Dem strongholds. It's mostly urban versus rural like a lot of other states. The Big Swing will come from the suburbs of Dallas if there is one.So far the asshole in the WH has managed to piss off a lot of voters who might switch. Texas does billions in trade with Mexico and messing with a highly profitable trade is pissing off a lot of business people. Today was warm and sunny so I thought about walking over to the Mercado in Juarez but the line to reenter was clear across the bridge. On the Mexican side you just walk in. No lines. You are welcome. If its that bad at the commercial crossings there are a lot of shippers and truckers that are pissed off.
it's too early to make predictions but the R's are not going to have a cakewalk in the next Presidential election. It really depends whether or not we have a candidate that can excite the younger voters. Time will tell. I wish we had some yonger top tier candidates but you go to war with what you have. In El Paso were already working on GOTV. Nothing else matters. Even in the 2010 disaster the R's generally didn't get more votes than in 2008. Some of the Obama voters apparantly lost some enthusiasm and didn't show up.

[dalton99a]

45. It's all about turnout

Beto accomplished what he did in 2018 because of Democratic turnout and the enthusiasm he generated

[keithbvadu2]

15. Continuously run against Trump and state/local republicans with the idea of them taking private prop

Continuously run against Trump and state/local republicans with the idea of them taking private property for Trump's wall.

[brer cat]

16. Thank you for your efforts to turn TX blue,

and also for your work on protecting our votes.

[Gothmog]

28. The Texas GOP wins by suppressing the vote

I am happy. One of the attorneys who works on voter protection efforts won a Houston city counsel seat last night.

Link to tweet

Abbie has trained voter protection/war room attorneys and worked in the voter protection war room. I am so happy that Abbie won.

I am also happy that Mayor Turner beat a trump clone who spent $13 million of his own money

Link to tweet

Texas will be a battleground state if Biden is the nominee

[bucolic_frolic]

17. Grabbing Texas would greatly increase Democratic chances in 2020

That's another thing we generally discount .... state party organizations are performing at a high level, better than ever before. If we go to the micro level and outwork them, we also improve our lot. We focus so much and too much on national offices. They fall into place if the work is done everywhere.

[Gothmog]

32. The GOP cannot win in the electoral college without winning Texas

[ananda]

18. Kewl!!

Works for me !!!

[paleotn]

20. Wouldn't that be fun.

I'll admit, if that could happen, it would be nice to go to bed early on election night for a change. Time will tell. A lot of election yet to go.

[Dopers_Greed]

21. If true, I would switch to Joe in an instant

Longtime Texas resident here. I thought we would go blue in 2018, but I'll settle for 2020

[progressoid]

22. "real democrats"??

[Wounded Bear]

23. It's a sad reflection on our country that Biden is thought to be the only one...

capable of winning next year. Trump is the most unqualified to squat in the oval office in at least 100 years.

[Gothmog]

26. Washington Post-It's easy to see how Trump can win reelection

Trump can easily win next year if the economy is strong. I strongly disagree with the concept that any candidate that the Democratic party nominates will easily win. Electability is my most main criterion for supporting a candidate

From Larry Sabato https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-economy-got-nixon-reagan-and-bush-reelected-it-could-do-it-for-trump-too/2019/04/23/b8920d34-65e6-11e9-a1b6-b29b90efa879_story.html?utm_term=.a35b315730d2

Ultimately, Trump may turn out to be at the mercy of conventional factors. In 2016, academic predictive models based on fundamentals such as the state of the economy suggested that Trump, or any other Republican candidate, was in position to win the election or come very close. This time, such models (once they become operative next year) could make Trump the early favorite despite his poor approval ratings.

Credit the powers of incumbency and a strong economy, the state of which may matter more to Trump’s odds than nearly anything else. Incumbency and the economy, among other matters, ended up being more than enough for Nixon, Reagan and Bush. Despite Trump’s unprecedented outlandishness, that same combination might work for him, too. [/d]

[efhmc]

24. I posted early today that this is in our reach, especially if he can hooks up with Beto.

There are millions of Texans hungering for a change but a slow nice white guy one. As a feminist this is hard for me to write but one foot in the door and we can start to make the changes we want and need. If you try to do a "progressive" transition, it will fail big time.

[Gothmog]

34. Beto is out trying to flip control of the Texas State House

Beto is a good man

Link to tweet

?

[Scurrilous]

25. K&R

[Tarheel_Dem]

27. That could potentially make for an electoral landslide.

[Gothmog]

29. It is a win if we force the GOP to devote resources to Texas

I want to win but I would also be happy to force the GOP to expend resources in Texas and for us to pick up some of the down ballot races

[Pachamama]

30. To this I say "That's the Plan"

I fully believe Biden will win Texas and it’s also why we need him as the nominee...

[MineralMan]

31. The hope of that is yet another reason I support Joe Biden for the nomination.

States like Texas are on the edge of flipping. We need to give them every opportunity to do so. Joe has the best chance.

[Gothmog]

33. This makes me smile

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

37. Joe is coming back to Yexas

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

38. Trump is unpopular in Texas. The state won't sit quietly.

Texas will be a battleground state if Biden is the nominee https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/12/31/trump-is-unpopular-texas-state-wont-sit-quietly/?fbclid=IwAR2XxkVSIkS-dL70IGBQR3OqreeTk4kQfIAwzUafiaeFR5vIq3su5WM5YrM

In Texas, the nation’s biggest, most important red state, Trump’s disapproval rating has consistently lagged behind many of the 30 states he carried in 2016. This potentially puts the state — a must-win for the president if there ever was one — in play for 2020.

To think Trump’s unpopularity in Texas is because of Twitter, or Ukraine, or the media, or a smear job by the left is to underestimate the problem. The reality is that Trump’s signature policies are out of step with what most Texans want....

While the United States struggles to adjust to a changing demographic makeup, Texas has been “majority minority” for more than a decade, with Hispanics expected to outnumber non-Hispanic whites in the next few years. Hispanics and non-Hispanics live by, work with, are friends with and go to school with each other, and this familiarity increases fondness. Which is why Trump’s fear and disparagement of immigrants — and Mexicans, in particular — falls flat here.

According to a Texas Politics Project poll, more Texans strongly disapprove of Trump’s immigration approach than strongly approve. Only 39 percent of Texans support additional federal spending on border barriers along the Mexican border, according to a November 2019 report by the U.S. Immigration Policy Center....

Nonetheless, a state that should be a Republican shoo-in increasingly appears weary of the party’s standard-bearer. And if there’s anything I’ve learned living in Texas, it’s that Texans will not sit quietly and be taken for granted.

[Gothmog]

39. Joe Biden says he'll commit resources needed to win Texas for Democrats

Link to tweet

ARLINGTON -- Joe Biden said Wednesday that if he is the Democratic party’s presidential nominee he would commit the cash and resources needed to turn Texas blue.

“The answer is yes,” Biden said when asked whether he would spend precious campaign cash on winning Texas. “I know one thing. It’s not going to be enough to beat Trump. You’ve got to win back the Senate. You got to go in and campaign in states that are in fact doable, gettable, even if I can’t win in that state.”

For decades Texas has been described as an ATM for national candidates who siphon money from Lone Star donors to spend in other parts of the country.

But Texas Democrats predict that in 2020 they will win their first statewide race since 1994. And Democrats are nine seats away from controlling the Texas House for the first time since 2001.
“I think it can flip from red to blue nationally because it is close,” Biden said during a joint interview with The Dallas Morning News and KXAS-TV (NBC5). “Depending on the nominee…I think Texas is gettable.”

[Gothmog]

40. Congressman Colin Allred backs Joe Biden for president in front of Dallas visit

Link to tweet

[Polybius]

42. But they won't

And Trump may still lose Texas.

[peggysue2]

43. Texas

Would that not be beautiful and a grand humiliation for Trump and his loyalists?

Make it so!

[Gothmog]

44. There are a large number of real Democrats who are working hard to flip Trxas

If Joe Biden is the nominee, Texas will be a battleground state