538: Biden, a consistent poll performance.

[crazytown]

Other candidates may have had their ups and downs, but you can draw a ruler on Joe Biden's national poll performance since August.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

[JoeOtterbein]

1. Good to see the Progressives still, when combined, are still dominating our...

...party. Here at DU and in the polls.

[highplainsdem]

3. No, they're not dominating the party. Not when you combine the support for the less leftist

candidates, the way you're combining the support for the more leftist candidates.

[JoeOtterbein]

5. Two out of the Top Three, aint bad...

...to me!

[highplainsdem]

8. That's only because you're deliberately ignoring the candidate in 4th place. His support combined

with Biden's brings their total to 35.8%, according to what that 538 page says currently, versus combined support of 31.9% for Warren and Sanders.

Bloomberg and Klobuchar would add another 6.9% to the support for the less leftwing candidates.

[JoeOtterbein]

9. Again, two of the top three are...

...Progressives!!!!

WOW! I still can't believe it!!!!

[tirebiter]

11. What I know is all of them are progressive

Bernie ascribes too much to Marx. He makes it clear when he ignores racial politics or sexual politics. Not everything comes down to economics, much less class politics.

[TwilightZone]

4. That's not how it works.

And your math only works if you ignore the rest of the candidates and assume the undecideds all go to Warren or Sanders.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

6. Right again Joe... Bernie & Elizabeth make one helluva team!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Thekaspervote]

2. Durable lead for the front runner!!

[judeling]

7. Both Biden and Sanders

have been very stable and their polls are pretty much where they were way back in 2017.

Biden however has had a slight but noticeable downward tilt to his numbers since the 2nd debate round.

[Thekaspervote]

10. Sanders really is not doing that well

Sanders got 40% of Democratic Primary vote in '16, he's running half that this time. Even if he got 100% of Warren's support, he'd still be behind his '16 vote total. Thehill.com

[Tiggeroshii]

12. The 2016 election was a two person race.

This is not. They are apples and oranges.

[MineralMan]

13. Here's the thing, though:

Both Sanders and Warren are flirting with the 15% rule. That's dangerous territory to be in during the primaries. In some states, they are below that dividing line, and will get no or few delegates to the convention.

It wouldn't take much to drop either or both of them below that critical level of voter support. Biden is sitting all alone at the top of the list, and has been since the very beginning. As people start really thinking about next year's primaries, that's going to play an important role in what the undecided voters end up doing.

Warren and Sanders are dividing up the so-called "progressive" voters. As long as they do that, they will remain near that critical 15% rule dividing line.

[judeling]

14. Sanders

is in a stronger position then you think.
And Warren is not that bad off. If she can avoid the temptation to engage as much with Buttigieg as the press would like.

All the volatility in this race has been in the "Wine Track" and that is normal. As you say if this tiff goes on between Warren and Buttigieg Sanders is likely to at the 15% point consolidate the progressive wing and Probably Win.
That would actually hurt Biden.
Additionally if this tiff continues the rest of Warren's support in the caucus is most likely to go to Klobuchar not to Biden and certainly not to Buttigieg. At the same time Buttigieg will be hurt by this and the support he has picked up from Warren recently will not be going to Sanders or Biden again that is Klobuchar. If Klobuchar continues the trend up she is actually in a good position to consolidate that "Wine Track" vote at Caucus time and For the first time Biden would be faced with a younger experienced moderate comparison directly.

Post impeachment and pre-trial is the most dangerous time for Biden since the first debate as more of the focus moves back to the race. This starts with the coming Debate (if it happens and it will). Biden is not that far from 15% either.

[MineralMan]

17. I think you are over-analyzing and making predictions

based on inadequate information, actually.

[judeling]

18. If you look beyond top lines

You would see that essentially all the race volatility since the first debate rounds has been Warren, Harris and Buttigieg switching around the same voters.
Sanders recovered from his health scare and Biden has held steady. Neither of them have gained to any discernable degree form anyone's falling numbers. Their is also no indications that either has firmed up any of their own support.

Warren's Support that has drifted to Buttigieg can be measured by the change in her voters second place picks as that has become much more favorable to Bernie. In addition for really the first time Klobuchar is getting reported in the second choice crosstabs. That indicates a real look at her. If she continues to rise that will be decisive.

Why? 2 things. Gender and Age for one. Organization for another.
People look at top line organization based on paid staff and offices and so miss her underlying organizational strength. Klobuchar has been playing the caucus game longer and more recently then any of the other candidates. And that is certainly even truer in Iowa were she has been supporting even state house candidates for over a decade. I can almost guarantee that she if she is in the mid to low single digits by caucus night she will have more volunteer precinct captains then any other candidate.

[Scurrilous]

15. K&R

[Polybius]

16. I gotta give Biden credit for this

He's been very consistent. Looks like it's gonna be him!