Just a reminder about delegate allocation rules

[nitpicker]

https://www.270towin.com/content/thresholds-for-delegate-allocation-2020-democratic-primary-and-caucus

(snip)
Each state (and territory) has a certain number of pledged delegates that are allocated based on the result of the vote in its Democratic primary or caucus. For those states with more than one congressional district, the available delegates are split - some are awarded based on the statewide (at-large) vote, while the remainder are based on the results in each individual congressional district*.

Pledged delegates are allocated in a proportional manner based on the vote share received by each candidate. This is at both the statewide and congressional district level.

There is a 15% minimum threshold to receive any delegates. Those not receiving the minimum are excluded, with the delegate pool divided proportionately among those candidates receiving 15% or more.

Implications for 2020

The Democratic nominating contest in 2016 was essentially between two candidates - Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. The 2020 field is starting out much larger. Even if a few withdraw later this year, there will likely be 10+ candidates in the race when the Iowa caucuses kick off the nominating process on February 3rd. Given the more front-loaded 2020 calendar, this larger group is likely to be around for more events than would otherwise be the case.

The biggest potential implication of proportional allocation in such a large field is that no candidate arrives at the Milwaukee convention in July with enough delegates to win -- and a brokered convention results.

However, there are a couple issues at the state level that could also arise in these large field 2020 contests that weren't really mathematically possible in the two-person 2016 race
1.No candidate receives 15% of the vote. If no candidate meets the 15% threshold, Democratic Party rules state the minimum to receive delegates will be 50% of the vote received by the front-runner. For example, if candidate A wins with 10% of the vote, delegates will be allocated proportionately to anyone that receives 5% or more.
2.Only one candidate exceeds 15% of the vote -- but just barely. If only one candidate gets 15%, the allocation is effectively winner-take-all. This is not a big deal if that person is the clear frontrunner, getting 40%, 50% or more. However, what if the opposite is true -- a candidate wins with 16% vote share, while the next three candidates are just a few points behind. If that happened repeatedly favoring the same candidate, the party could potentially end up with a nominee that lacks broad support.
(snip)

[George II]

1. The only caveat is that in some states a candidate might get a delegate or two if he/she gets 15%...

....in a particular district. It's not common but it does happen occasionally.

[dsc]

2. it is virtually certain to happen in NC

and many other states with gerrymandered districts. In many gerrymandered states there are a few, very heavily Democratic districts that tend to have lots of POC voters while the rest of the districts are way less POC. Given that one candidate is killing it among POC voters and the rest aren't, that is going to lead to a candidate who is at say 10 to 12 overall in those states likely being at 20 or so in those other districts.

NC also has one very Democratic district that is full of northern transplants, college grads, and is more toward a district in Massachusetts or Connecticut than a typical southern Democratic district which is mostly AA in terms of its primary electorate.

[FBaggins]

3. Neither scenario is particularly likely

Some polling shows the possibility of IA/NH with four candidates above the threshold (which would itself be unprecedented)... but the 8-way split required to get everyone below 15%? That would take quite a shift.

Conversely... getting all but one candidate below the threshold is unlikely because the current polls still have large numbers of undecideds... but the final results won’t.

[Recursion]

4. In Iowa the final results actually can

current polls still have large numbers of undecideds... but the final results won’t.

Unless Iowa has changed this since 2016, caucusgoers at least can "commit" uncommitted delegates, though they try to discourage that.

[Gothmog]

5. Thank you for this post

The 15% rule will be important