Quinnipiac poll, best chance of beating Trump: Biden 46%, Warren & Sanders 10%, Buttigieg 6%,

[highplainsdem]

Bloomberg 3%, all others 1% or less

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3650


Biden's electability numbers went up in their latest poll, from 42% last month.

Even the most liberal Dems, those describing themselves as "very liberal," think Biden is most electable: 34% to 20% for Warren and 18% for Sanders.

And even the youngest voters, the 18-34 year olds, think Biden is most electable: 36% to 19% for Sanders and 13% for Warren.

67% of black voters think Biden is most electable (only 5% think Sanders is, and only 2% think Warren is).

43% of white voters think Biden is most electable (12% think Warren is, and 9% think Sanders is).

46% of both men and women polled think Biden is most electable (compared to 14% of men and 7% of women for Sanders, and 12% of men and 8% of women for Warren).


This is significant, and worth a separate OP, because I think it's very likely that when voters finally cast their votes in primaries and caucuses, electability will be the most important consideration.

And none of his rivals are even close to Biden when this question is asked by pollsters.

[at140]

1. So why is Bloomberg jumping in as a

centrist at this late stage?

[Aquaria]

8. Ego

That's all it ever boils down to with psychopaths.

[at140]

10. Probably correct answer!

But my guess is Bloomberg thinks he can beat Trump easier than Biden.

[boomer_wv]

2. This is why Biden is going to be the nom.

Beating Trump is the main issue in this election for Democrats, and as long as Biden is this far ahead in that he's going to win.

There are going to be voters who, right now, say they like Pete or Warren, but when it comes time to put rubber to road, they are going to end up voting for Biden.

[Julian English]

3. Whether Biden's your first choice or not (he's not my first, btw) this explains the obivious

tRump is scared of Uncle Joe the most. This is why tRump and Russia going after him so hard.

[evertonfc]

4. I'm closer to

Warren and Bernie but this is why I'm supporting Joe. Periid

[LakeArenal]

5. But...but... Andrea Mitchell said Biden in a slump!!

So she was pushing Bloomberg!!!


🤯

[Cha]

15. Andrea

Mitchell has trump blood on her hands, imo. And if she had any self-awareness she would know that.

[Hortensis]

18. She works too long and hard for the Republicans not

to be extremely aware. This goes back through the 1990s, such as when she was spreading the story that First Lady Hillary was having a lesbian affair with her pet groomer. Undoubtedly the themes for her show, and the strategies they fit into, are determined by more than just her. Limbaugh still meets with top Republican strategists to design his messages, even if his show has slid badly.

[thesquanderer]

6. Another one of these silly "electable" polls

The poll question doesn't tell you who is most electable (i.e. who people would vote for), rather it tells you who the people surveyed think is the most electable (i.e. who these people think OTHER people will vote for). Which in turn is somewhat based on the reports they have heard about who other people think is most electable (i.e. it is somewhat circular and self-reinforcing), or how aware they are of actual head-to-head polls. Its best value is perhaps in a study of social psychology.

The only polls that really tell you who would best beat Trump are the ones that poll head-to-head contests between a candidate and Trump, specifically in the states that would swing the electoral college. All the other variations are pretty pointless. Want to know who can beat Trump and is therefore really most electable? Look at the head-to-head polling in the battleground states. The answer might be the same, but at least its based on actual data, and not some combination of other people's reactions to that data, or their gut.

[highplainsdem]

11. It isn't a silly question. It's the single most important question IF you care about winning.

And voters have every right, and every reason, to make assessments of electability, based on what they read and hear.

The people who complain about this question in polls are usually supporters of candidates who aren't faring as well when their electability is polled. Those unhappy supporters of less electable candidates often include journalists and pundits, which is why you tend to hear the often-repeated but always foolish advice to "vote with your heart and not with your head" in the primary.

If two candidates seem equally electable in a primary race, then by all means vote for the one who appeals to you most for other reasons, whatever they may be.

But if one candidate is clearly more electable than the others, voting for one of the much less electable candidates shows either wild optimism or lack of interest in winning.

[thesquanderer]

13. Agree and Disagree

re: "It's the single most important question IF you care about winning."

I agree electability may well be the single most important thing to consider. And to poll for. But polling for who people THINK is most electable (an entirely different question from who IS most electable) is dumb. Poll who they would vote for, and that actually tells you who is most electable. I don't care who these people think OTHER people will vote for.

re: "voters have every right, and every reason, to make assessments of electability, based on what they read and hear."

I agree, with that, too. I just (again) think it's a stupid thing to poll. Give us the facts, not what other people think the facts are.

re: "The people who complain about this question in polls are usually supporters of candidates who aren't faring as well when their electability is polled."

The leader in the pretty worthless "who is most electable" polls is... Biden. The leader in the actual, truly valuable head-to-head polls that tell us who really IS most electable, is, again... Biden. No difference. But one is a real measure, and one is a measure that is an amalgamation of people regurgitating those real measures and other things they have heard along with their own psychological feelings of how they think other people will feel about the canididates. Why do we care what people think OTHER people feel about the candidates, when we can just ASK those other people? The latter is what the useful polls do. And at least at the moment, the results are Biden either way, no difference there. Except in one case you're measuring Biden's actual strength, and in the other, you're doing a one-generation removed version where you're measuring, not Biden's actual strength, but people's psychological perceptions of Biden's strengths. Again, why do we need people's perceptions of something, when we can measure the thing itself?

All IMO, of course.

[Vogon_Glory]

7. I Like Elizabeth Warren On The Issues BUT

My first priority is and remains getting Individual One OUT of the White House, no matter how baffling and hair-tearing I find some of Good Old Joe’s attitudes towards some of the issues. I’ll vote for Good Old Joe in the primaries first if I think it has the best chance of making Vladimir Vladimirovich’s good buddy a one-term President.

I REALLY want Individual One GONE, and I’m not willing to risk next autumn’s election by voting for a candidate who’d lose to the Orange Entity by half a percentage point or more.

[stonecutter357]

9. good let's go Joe !

[TomSlick]

12. Interesting poll but we do not conduct a national election.

We conduct 50 individual state elections. The last election was lost by precious few votes in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The Clinton margin of victory in California and the Trump margin in Mississippi were really irrelevant.

Conduct similar polls in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Hampshire (swing states in 2016) and you will have my attention. I would be curious to see such a poll in Texas just to know if a purple Texas is a pipe dream.

I know, I know, the Electoral College is an undemocratic travesty but I am reasonably confident the 2020 election will be decided by the Electoral College.

[Tarheel_Dem]

14. I'm fairly confident the "electability" question will be the deciding factor when folks are...

finally in the privacy of the voting booth.

[Gothmog]

16. Tony Evers says a pragmatic Democrat can carry Wisconsin in 2020

Link to tweet

[Hortensis]

17. Agree. And these numbers sound credible, no "funny" numbers.