Anyone else have the feeling we are headed towards a brokered convention?

[madville]

I'm not seeing anyone that can break away and get 50.1% of delegates in the first round of voting. It's not farfetched to imagine a scenario where Biden, Bernie and Harris come into the convention with about 25-30% of delegates each.

Which way do you think the super delegates would swing it in that scenario? We all know that Bernie won't get the nomination if he can't pull it off in the first round. That would leave it between Biden and Harris, I have a feeling the super delegates would go with Joe and then Biden would offer Harris VP.

[JI7]

1. we are way too early for anyone to have huge lead at this point

Biden hasn't even said what he will do. no debates yet either.

candidates will drop out as we have each election. some will drop out even before voting starts to take place.

[madville]

7. I think we are set up to have three split the delegates all the way to the convention

Sure all the other lower tier candidates will drop outaftehr the first few primaries and/or Super Tuesday. But Biden, Bernie, and Harris wouldn't drop out if they are essentially tied in a three-way split.

[highplainsdem]

2. I think it's way too early to tell.

[bernie59]

3. Aren't the super delegates supposed to prevent that?

[madville]

6. The super delegates can't vote in the first round

So everyone has to rely on their awarded delegates only in the first round. If no one has a majority then it goes to the second round and the super delegates get to decide along with all the other first round delegates who are now released from their obligation to vote for their original candidate in the first round.

[bernie59]

40. Thanks for the explanation.

I guess if going into the convention no-one has a majority, there will be some serious deal-making in side rooms, trying to form a coalition for the 2nd vote. It might or might not be good for the party, but it sure would be exciting to see.

[ehrnst]

50. Who do you think will be "deal-making in side rooms" that will be "bad for the party?"(nt)

[bernie59]

53. I said it "might or might not be good for the party"

I imagine the people doing the dealing would be party leadership, and the candidates themselves. Those who feel they can't get the nomination would be negotiating for the VP spot, top cabinet spots, etc. Sort of how parliamentary governments form coalitions.

I say it "might or might not be good for the party", because at this point it is purely about power.

But I really don't know how it would work, and I don't know how well it is defined.

I read about the 68 Democratic Convention that was very interesting but before my time.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGovern%E2%80%93Fraser_Commission

What took place in Chicago went well beyond party leaders' ignoring one candidate, Eugene McCarthy, who could claim to have demonstrated his appeal to voters in the primaries and nominating another, Hubert Humphrey, who had not entered a single primary. Dissatisfaction with the perceived undemocratic nature of the nominating process led Democrats to create a commission that would ensure greater democratic input into how nominees were selected

[democratisphere]

4. This election is so far away.

No one knows nothing.

[SFnomad]

5. We haven't had a brokered convention in nearly 70 years. We won't know if that's even a remote

possibility for another year.

I've seen people post this a number of times in the last couple of weeks. Why are so many people trying to stir up this steaming pile unnecessarily?

[madville]

10. Because it's a possibility

And speculating is fun

[SFnomad]

13. Stirring up steaming piles about Superdelegates isn't "fun"

It's just stirring up things because you want to see what kind of havoc you can cause. If that's what you want to be known for ... well, that's up to you.

A brokered convention hasn't happened in nearly 70 years. This year is no more likely than any other to end up with one.

[madville]

14. Would you agree it's not impossible?

Just because it hasn't happened in 70 years doesn't mean it can't happen.

[SFnomad]

17. I could talk about Joe Biden having a heart attack and asking how would that affect his campaign

Because, it could happen, right? Just because it hasn't happened yet, doesn't mean it can't ... right?

And all I would be was someone stirring things up, not being honest about asking a question.

So, do you really just want to be known as a steaming pile disturber? Maybe you should ask an honest question, rather than one that is not likely to happen and there is NOTHING we can do about it between now and then ... then being at least a year away.

[bernie59]

54. Wasn't the 68 convention considered "brokered"?

Not quite 70 years ago.

[SFnomad]

55. The 1968 Convention wasn't even close to being a brokered convention

A brokered convention is one that does not choose a candidate on the first ballot.

Humphrey won on the first ballot with over 2/3rds of the delegates.

The last brokered conventions were in 1952 ... both Democrats and Republicans had brokered conventions that year. Neither have had one since.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

8. Lol nope.

[Hortensis]

44. +1. Just more "dems in disarray" spin. And for some, hope.

[BannonsLiver]

9. The only way that happens is if Bernie is close.

I don’t think he will get anywhere near that close. He will do worse than last year IMO and will be out of it by ST if not before. I can’t see any of the other candidates forcing a brokered convention. Someone would do the honorable thing for the good of the party and country.

[R B Garr]

12. This is what it's looking like. He won't be around long

enough for it to matter.

[madville]

16. If Biden, Bernie, and Harris were in a 3-way tie

at say 30/30/30%, who would drop out before the convention? I also doubt Bernie would, I don't know which way Biden or Harris would go, both would still have a shot at getting the nomination. Do you think one of them would bow out?

[Blue_true]

20. That is my concern. If Bernie falls behind decisively, will he drop out so

that his supporters can decompress and get behind one of the leaders, or will he stay in and potentially create schisms in the party that carries into November?

[Agschmid]

25. He won't drop out.

IMO

[Blue_true]

32. I am afraid so and that is worrisome. nt

[Hortensis]

45. :) Simple truth. HE won't drop out for anything.

But he won't need to. Mr. 8% isn't going one on one with our first serious female candidate for president this time, echoing and vastly benefiting from the deluge of "corrupt Hillary" and "kill the evil witch" messages of the right and Russia.

[NastyRiffraff]

59. Agreed. His giant ego won't let him

He really really REALLY wants to be president.

[R B Garr]

11. It seems if someone was so disillusioned about my

party, and has so much interest in 3rd parties, hmmm.

[WeekiWater]

15. Way too far out to make an assumption. NT

[SFnomad]

18. And some people are treating this like it's something we urgently need to focus on ... #smmfh n/t

[Blue_true]

19. No.

I think that two clear front runners will emerge on Super Tuesday. My only question is if Bernie is not one of them what will he do.

[madville]

21. What's your definition of a frontrunner in that scenario?

Two people pulling about 30-40% each? I don't think it will be Bernie either, he'll probably be stuck around 20%.

[Blue_true]

23. The landscape gets tougher for Bernie at Super Tuesday and beyond.

If he walks out of Super Tuesday 10% or more behind two other candidates, he is finished for all intents and purposes because the remaining big states were very hostile to him in 2016. He will likely win small lowly populated states, but he will be falling farther and farther behind if he stays in the race.

[madville]

22. What happens to awarded delegates if someone drops out before the convention?

Say Beto or Warren or whoever had a 100 delegates but they drop out before the convention. Are their delegates still obligated to vote for them in the first round or re they released to vote for another candidate still in the race? Specifically talking about the first round of voting since all delegates are released in the second round.

[Blue_true]

24. They get freed up to vote for someone else. nt

[SFnomad]

28. The rules vary by state and party what happens

Some are bound to the candidate they were chosen for the first round
Some are released and can vote for who they want in the first round
Some are given marching orders by their candidate to vote for a different candidate and are expected to abide those wishes.

[gopiscrap]

26. wow

[CentralMass]

27. No. I think that it will play out naturally.

[EveHammond13]

29. no

[WheelWalker]

30. I expect fellow Democrats to nominate a clear choice from a most excellent field.

[customerserviceguy]

31. I've been suspecting that for quite some time now

I don't see an even three-way split, though. I see Joe Biden getting about 30-35% of the delegates, Bernie Sanders getting 20-25%, Beto O'Rourke getting 15-20%, Kamala Harris with about 10-15%, and the remaining amount split up among candidates who think they can be the dark horse at the convention.

I do see the super delegates swinging it towards Joe Biden, but that might not be enough. And if Sen. Harris has spent a lot of her debate time dissing Joe, don't expect him to pick her. He'd probably be smart enough to pick Stacy Abrams to check off the two boxes that Sen. Harris fills.

[madville]

33. Completely plausible

Or we could see two candidates partner up, like a Biden/Beto scenario, prior to the convention to consolidate delegates/support.

Not sure about the Abrams scenario, I don't think she's qualified for VP. She should run for Senate in Georgia or a House seat if that opportunity comes up.

[customerserviceguy]

35. I agree

on Abrams. But if the powers that be in the DNC tell Joe that he's got to secure the women and African-American vote by picking Harris, and she's been a burr under his saddle in the debates and on the campaign trail, he'd refuse to do so.

I don't see any partnering up going on. Everybody knows that this time around, the Democratic nomination is worth more than it's ever been to a non-incumbent, and I expect that there will be fierce fighting for it. It won't leave too many candidates as friends for life afterwards.

[leftofcool]

34. So, you have decided that 2 old white men will take the lead?

[customerserviceguy]

37. Anybody

can read the tea leaves as they are right now. Sure, things can change, but Biden will place in the top two or three slots essentially everywhere in the country, and nobody else can say that. Also, the folks who thought that the Democratic Party screwed Bernie in 2016 will back him to the bitter end, and as some of them showed, a little bit longer.

Somebody else running may contend for a third front-runner spot, but it will take a lot of elbowing others in their lane out of the way. Neither Beto or Booker has the stomach for that.

[madville]

38. I'm not following

I said a three-way tie including Harris and in that scenario it comes down to Harris and Biden. Where did you get your accusation from?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

36. Big duh...who has the highest chance of sending the devil back to hell?

[madville]

39. Right now, Biden :) N/T

[VarryOn]

41. Anytime either party has a slug of candidates running, this subject comes up...

I think chances are remote. At some point, it'll narrow down, someone will take the lead, get momentum, and most delegates will fall in line. If not on the first ballot, then the second.

[JCMach1]

42. No, I seem to remember easier primaries

The more candidates in the past... We will be down to 2-4 by Super Tuesday

[Tipperary]

43. No.

[SKKY]

46. So, so, so very early to even be thinking about this as a possibility...

...Nothing, and I mean nothing will be even remotely clear until after the first, or perhaps second debate. We'll see what happens after that, but you're omitting a lot of potential candidates who could catch fire and make things interesting. A brokered convention, while creating some tense moments, just shows the absolute insane depth and talent of our candidate pool. I guess I'm just slow to recognize the negative in that.

[NurseJackie]

47. Nope.

[PDittie]

48. No

[hack89]

49. No. I think Dem voters will be ruthless in making their choices

and they will make them early in the process.

All we want is Trump defeated. Everything else is secondary to that and I think primary voters will make a quick decision on who can win.

[Basement Beat]

51. To be honest...

everyone who announced so far has been kind of disappointing to me. If I had to choose today, I would most likely go with Elizabeth Warren.

[madville]

52. The debates will really separate and eliminate

The media will pick their favorites and promote them as well. A full year of primary campaigning, it's gonna be interesting seeing how some of them evolve to distinguish themselves in a crowded field.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

56. Is the convention next week? If so, then yes, it might be brokered.

Somehow, I think most of the people running now will "suspend" their campaigns. And, some people not yet running will announce their candidacy. It's a bit early to predict the convention. DU has not yet begun to cast asparagus on itself, with circular firing squads, "farewell cruel world" migrations to JPR, etc.

Miles to go before we sleep.

[McCamy Taylor]

57. Nope. Not at all. Smoke filled rooms are already filling with smoker. This election is too

important to leave to the whims of a bunch of Russian trolls.

[brooklynite]

58. No.

People have a matinee brokered conventions for years. Never happens.