Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBiden falls to 4th place in Iowa as support among voters under 45 drops to 2%
I've been saying for a long time this will come down to the youth vote:
https://www.salon.com/2019/11/01/joe-biden-falls-to-fourth-in-iowa-as-support-among-voters-under-45-drops-to-2-percent-poll/
If Biden doesn't win Iowa, NH or Nevada, or worse, places 3rd or lower in all those contests, the media horse race narrative will evaporate whatever slim momentum he might have going into the SC primary, and then Super Tuesday.
He'll still probably win SC, but I can see his lead shrinking dramatically.
Biden is running out of money, can't get many donations from the working class voters he claims to champion, and has resorted turning to the fat cats at the Super PACS.
The candidate who energizes the youth vote is almost certain to be the nominee.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
CaliforniaPeggy
(149,622 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,576 posts)a word from these folks.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
CaliforniaPeggy
(149,622 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Interesting.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
evertonfc
(1,713 posts)Good news for the Trump campaign
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bucolic_frolic
(43,166 posts)He has reminded us how to fight and stand tall, and answer Trump's lies immediately. That was a real Obama-Biden strategy in 2008 and 2012. Campaigns and polls have their ups and downs, that's what makes a horse race.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to Fiendish Thingy (Original post)
TidalWave46 This message was self-deleted by its author.
ritapria
(1,812 posts)His support within that subgroup probably in the range of 8% .Which means his total Iowa Support level is around 19% .. Warren is ahead by around 3% ..Buttigieg, Bernie and Biden are locked in 3 way tie for second place ...The candidate with the most enthusiastic supporters will challenge Warren for the victor's title in Iowa ...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to Fiendish Thingy (Original post)
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Hav
(5,969 posts)Especially regarding drawing conclusions from subgroups of an already small sample. While it doesn't seem to be a great poll for Biden, I'm not sure much emphasis should be put on that 2% (somehow rounded down for the 2% and 3% for the two groups under 45 years) just yet when the margin of error approaches 8% for that group.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)@ChrisJackson/twitter Biden campaign mgr
The next time you hear about fundraising, remember this:
@JoeBiden: $37.7 million raised/186 days= ~$202,700 per day
@ewarren: $50.3 million raised/261 days= ~$191,600
Joe Biden on avg. has raised about $11k more per day than Warren, contrary to the narrative being pushed
Candidates that have the most positive support
A new Business Insider report reveals that when looking at three of the publications polls from September 25 to October 17th, Andrew Yang and Joe Biden have the most net positive support among undecided voters. 42% say they would vote for Biden! 🥁🥁🥁
A rated poll Suffolk IA
Biden 18%
Warren 17%
More at the link
https://www.axios.com/2020-iowa-poll-pete-buttigieg-95136b69-4686-4f78-a064-52bc972c26be.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,240 posts)Thank you for your valuable information!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,383 posts)https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/29/gen-z-millennials-and-gen-x-outvoted-older-generations-in-2018-midterms/
We (I am on the Gen Z/Millennial boundary) are far more likely to vote Democratic than Boomers and the even older gens. We will be the ones who will most suffer (as will the post Gen Z (Gen Alpha, born 2010 and after) cohort as well) for the Boomer's and older gen's poorest choices and yet also the ones to sort the mess they left us as well. I have faith we can do it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)The boomers brought YOU:
Roe V Wade,
civil rights laws
Voting rights laws
Medicare
CHIP
AIDS research
Man on the moon
Woodstock
Sexual freedom
Barack Obama.... yes born in 1963 he is a boomer
Bill & Hillary Clinton
Elijah Cummings
Adam Schiff
Like it or not this are hefty accomplishments
Instead of being critical why not post something positive,
In 2018, among those age 65 and older, voter turnout was 65 percent for women and 68 percent for men. In contrast, 38 percent of women 18-29 years old voted and 33 percent of men of the same age group voted.
More at the link
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,383 posts)come out out of those older gens.
You are far too defensive, and I also see far more reverse ageism here on DU that the other way around.
you said
I said
also you claimed:
Roe V Wade,
civil rights laws
Voting rights laws
Medicare
CHIP
AIDS research
Man on the moon
Woodstock
Sexual freedom
Barack Obama.... yes born in 1963 he is a boomer
Bill & Hillary Clinton
Elijah Cummings
Adam Schiff
sorry, you are trying to steal thunder from the pre Boomers on many of those
Boomers are born 1946 to 1964
so
civil rights laws << not Boomer started at all
Voting rights laws << not Boomer started at all
Medicare <<< not Boomers
Man on the moon << not Boomers
Sexual freedom <<< not Boomer started at all
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)The energy, the driving force behind those ideas belong to the boomer generation.
As far as being defensive, the mess they left us to clean up. Thats less than neutral
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,383 posts)Man on the moon, lolol
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(92,190 posts)for Civil Rights, workers rights, women's rights, environmental rights, Supreme Court Justices like Ginsberg, and all the issues you named and more, that are being whittled away with the help of some who push the FALSE narrative that there is no difference between republicans and Democrats.
In general I don't give much credibility to Salon's analysis.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BannonsLiver
(16,387 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Fiendish Thingy
(15,616 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)EW and sanders transferred money from their senate re-election fund. EW to the tune of 10 million
Ill let you do the math
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Fiendish Thingy
(15,616 posts)And she's been campaigning since last December - still not looking good for Joe's ability to inspire small donors.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Fiendish Thingy
(15,616 posts)As it doesn't capture the shift in momentum as candidates increase or decrease their fundraising.
Warren, Sanders, and Pete all have 2-3 times the cash on hand than Biden, and they've all been in the race longer.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Beartracks
(12,814 posts)Who's pushing this narrative (read: made-up story, wishful thinking, lie) if in fact the facts on the ground do not support it?
======
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,767 posts)More at the link
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287331605
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,576 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,854 posts)I'll vote for the Democratic nominee in the general election regardless, but it seems like the Biden supporters are pretty vociferous here given the internal polling. Not just this thread, but elsewhere.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MarcA
(2,195 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,264 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Capt. America
(2,477 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
still_one
(92,190 posts)evidence to the contrary that he is losing much of that support to Warren
As to "Joe" losing momentum, I don't think that can be determined from the Iowa caucus. I understand all the hype given the Iowa caucus, but the reality is the caucus process is quite un-Democratic and discriminatory, especially against people with mobility problems, or those who can't be there physically.
NH is a better standard because it is a primary, but in my view it will be Super Tuesday that will actually determine who has the momentum. Everything thing else is just hype among various political competitors
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Capt. America
(2,477 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
comradebillyboy
(10,148 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to Fiendish Thingy (Original post)
BannonsLiver This message was self-deleted by its author.