UPDATE: Corps d'Elite Day-by-Day Presidential Tracking Poll-October: Biden 28, Warren 22, Sanders 17

[UncleNoel]

Last edited Wed Oct 30, 2019, 11:00 AM - Edit history (6)

New YouGov Poll out. The good news is that Biden is up three though this does not show in the tracking averages. Always friendly to Warren, she is up a tab, but the bad news is that Sanders took a dip. Scroll down for previous chart.


Previous compilation:

Data Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

Commentary:
Biden is rising, Warren flattening, and Sanders coming up on Warren.

Disclaimer: All averages are mine alone. 538 does not provide averages. I am going cross-eyed reading polls and calculating. All errors are mine alone and any corrections, additions, or comments on the method will be appreciated.numbers

This is a work in progress. A & B rated polls(538) are tracked with day-by-day averages of polls available for each day with an aggregate average as given above. This provides a daily tracking so that trends can be seen rather than simply lumping all polls together with arbitrary listing of the number of polls covered. I am going from the October Debate until the November debate. However, aggregate averages can be made at any point.

Noel

[UncleNoel]

1. You can compare the results with RCP. Not so different, but the day-by-day shows the trends.

Democratic Presidential Nomination

Biden27.5
Warren21.7
Sanders17.7

[oasis]

2. Good work. Thanks for posting.

[UncleNoel]

3. Oops! That shuld be [Biden +7]

[Skya Rhen]

4. Awesome - thanks!

[UncleNoel]

6. Thanx, Skya!

[crazytown]

5. Well done Noel!

More useful & informative than RCP. Congratulations

[UncleNoel]

8. I don't know what it would look like if narrowed to only A rrated or broadened to include C rated.

But I an disinclined to do C rated and don't know if there are enough A rated polls to make it useful.

[crazytown]

11. You can play around with the ratings

assign a number to each letters A+=10 A=9 etc, and just run a table. My issue with HarrisX is not so much the rating, as the principals. This week HarrisX is Biden +8, two weeks ago it was Biden +20. These are not credible results.

[UncleNoel]

12. A number of C rated polls have odd results, but A and B are fine with me.

But a creme de la creme A rated would be interesting.

[Peacetrain]

7. This has just been such a good start to my day!!

Thanks Noel

[UncleNoel]

9. I do this in Taiwan where it is the end of my day--and a good way to end it as well.

[Peacetrain]

10. Happy Dance!!

[peggysue2]

13. Turning out to be another good week for Joe

Thanks for all the work, UncleNoel. Interesting to see the trends in action.