Let's Talk Elections: Sanders (303) v. Trump (235)

[floppyboo]

This channel is pretty fun.

&feature=em-uploademail

[Hortensis]

1. Fun? Or fun fantasy? McConnell & co reelected by a landslide to

keep the Democrats from going too far under a socialist president? And the same dynamic sweeping many of us out of the house and state governments? Electorates have a nasty tendency to balance power, especially when they're faced with just too much change, such as balancing our first black president by putting both houses of congress in control of conservatives.

We have to consider the big picture if we're to get enough power to restore and advance our national wellbeing and very belatedly try to halt or at least lessen global warming. The very prospect of winning the presidency only to have McConnell and Mccarthy continue their scorched-earth march toward fascism and the nation blame Democrats in 2024 for a disastrously failed four years makes me feel sick.

[NurseJackie]

2. Pure fantasy. Why skip the primaries? Oh wait... I know!

Pure fantasy. Why skip the primaries? Oh wait... I know! Because BS is behind and has zero chance of becoming our party's nominee.

It doesn't matter how well "Bernie polls against Trump" because he must first poll-better-than ALL THE REST of the Democrats during the primary. He must get more votes than any other Democrat during the primary. (He's not doing that.)

[floppyboo]

3. Electability is of top, if not THE top, consideration for primaries.

Don't underestimate Bernie!

[Amimnoch]

6. That's why I support Biden.

Electability isn't polling best or even winning primaries, and it isn't winning the popular vote (national match-up polls) in the GE. Electability is who will swing the swing states that gains the 270 to win. For the last 2 months running, Biden has a distinct edge in these.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

1st and September edition here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287282316

Highlights: Only 2 new polls have come out in the battleground states since last months posting. Florida Atlantic University poll put out in the end of September, and an Emmerson poll covering Ohio. All 3 of our frontrunners have lost ground and are now in near tie ups when matched up against the Cheeto in Florida. In Ohio, Biden has slipped by 2 points while Warren and Sanders have both made gains of 5 points and 7 points respectively.

Below is the raw numbers from each of the most recent RCP polls that covers all 3 candidates available. Ones in Bold are the only changes with updated matchup polls.

Florida - 29 electoral votes - Florida Atlantic University - September 2019 (new poll) - MoE 3.1
https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2019/florida-poll-finds-trump-popular-in-the-sunshine-state-while-biden-dominates-democratic-field.php
Biden: -1 loss - Slipped from +9 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Warren: 0 tie - slipped from +4 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Sanders: -1 loss - slipped from +6 win from the June Quinnipiac poll

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019 - MoE 4.2 no new poll
https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620
Biden: +11 win
Warren: +3 win
Sanders: +7 win

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from this past week - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - slipped from +8 win from July Quinnipiac poll
Warren: +4 win - gained from -1 loss from July Quinnipiac poll
Sanders: +6 win - gained from -1 loss from July Quinnipiac poll

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019 Moe 4.0
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/
Biden: +10 win
Warren: +6 win
Sanders: +4 win

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019 MoE 4.0
https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-trumps-job-approval-decreases/
Biden: +2 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -10 loss

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019 MoE 3.9
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf
Biden: +9 win
Warren: 0 tie
Sanders: +4 win

As before, here are what the maps would look like assuming these polls were election reality. Within the MoE remains battleground, within 2 points outside the MOE will indicate light blue/red indicating "leans", and >2 points outside the MoE will be solid Blue/Red.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map

[floppyboo]

7. Bernie is winning too! Except Arizona. But he's the only one winning Iowa! ;)

[TidalWave46]

4. While it's a bunch of pie in the sky...

It also ignores the point that he can’t win the primary. His support has evaporated since 16. By evaporated, I mean found much better options.

Sanders has to generate fear in order to gain support. He can’t do that with the field we are hosting. In 16 it was much easier getting the irrational ant-Clinton brigade onboard.

[floppyboo]

8. Guess we'll see. If young voters come out like they did in '18...

...Sanders has a real advantage!