Trump v Sanders: RCP polls show him on top every time!

[floppyboo]

His average now is 6, Biden's is 6.3, despite Biden coming in the negative red in one poll. Bernie is true blue positive all the way!!!

Now, if the pollsters could just figure out what the heck is the disconnect with numbers within the party for primaries and the national polls, maybe they won't be so surprised in 2020.

[evertonfc]

1. maybe but

unfortunately Bernie isn't going to be the nominee

[Tiggeroshii]

2. He has a better chance than the vast majority of the candidates running.

FWIW. Also, how can you say that when there hasn't even been one caucus or primary yet?

[NJCher]

3. pay no attention to that kind of comment

It's intended to discourage support for Sanders. The poster is not psychic and has no way of knowing who the nominee will be. People do it all the time, not just here but at various political forums.

[Tiggeroshii]

4. Thanks

I'm super excited about this comeback Sanders is clearly making!

[zentrum]

5. Sanders is

Last edited Thu Oct 24, 2019, 10:16 PM - Edit history (1)

.....doing great.

[Tiggeroshii]

6. As is Warren!!

Anybody who says that we can't nominate a strong progressive (ie warren or sanders) needs to have their marbles checked!

[zentrum]

14. Agree totally.

[brooklynite]

41. He has a worse chance than Biden and Warren

[ritapria]

7. He leads in every Poll, Yet he is unelectable

The people will never elect a Socialist we hear ... Yet Bernie proudly proclaims himself a Democratic Socialist and the lead stays solid ...Why haven't the masses already abandoned what the pundits say is almost surely a sinking ship ? ….

[Tiggeroshii]

8. I also find it noteworthy that VT was a red state when he came around.

[beastie boy]

10. Surely you are jesting!

I am not aware of one poll that he leads in, let alone every poll.

The best he has done so far was #2. It is #3 in most polls, and I saw one where he is #4

[NJCher]

12. why is Bernie leading in donations

when Biden is running out of cash?

Why did Bernie have the biggest turnout at a rally? Last Saturday Bernie drew 26,000 in Long Island City and even more people wanted to attend but they were turned away because the venue was filled to capacity.

Biden had a turnout of 400 in his hometown of Scranton.

You can make yourself feel good over polls if you want, but marketing people know the value of name recognition. Biden had eight years in the White House. This is the THIRD time he's tried for the presidency. Biden's "lead" in the polls, at least at this point, is most likely little more than name recognition.

[beastie boy]

13. Are these examples of polls? The poster said Bernie is leading in every poll.

Before we go on, we have to agree on what "poll" means.

But if you are soliciting my opinion on the questions you have raised, I believe the answer is the same to all of them: Bernie has a relatively small (as reflected in polls) but loyal following, and Biden has a vast but temperate base of support. The former inspires excitement, the latter inspires confidence. And it appears, especially in light of the 2016 elections, that confidence is a more valuable currency than excitement.

Because... polls!

[NJCher]

22. what does that mean?

"vast but temperate base of support":


Does that mean "mile wide and an inch deep?" Because it appears that Biden supporters can't be bothered to donate to their candidate. Now Biden has to take Super PAC money, making him beholden to special interests, AKA "dark money."

Or does "temperate" mean "unenthusiastic?"

No, what it means is what I said it means: Biden has name recognition and little else. Now that he has to mainline on Super PACs to survive and he has to compete with candidates who don't, he will be subject to attacks from the other candidates, which have already started. Beto attacked this practice and says he will never accept PAC money. Needless to say, Bernie has already called him on it.There will be more.

As Trump goes down, the belief that Biden is the only one who can beat him becomes less important. There isn't another person with two terms of v-p and three tries at the presidency to plug in.

[beastie boy]

24. It means, whatever the dimentions of his support you want to suggest, its volume is consistently #1.

And temperate means lacking drama. The unwavering support is there, but it doesn't make the news with rallies and calls for a revolution.

[UncleNoel]

28. CNN poll: Biden wins the "enthusiasm" factor! A record level of enthusiasm heading into 2020

CNN poll: Biden wins the "enthusiasm" factor! A record level of enthusiasm heading into 2020
So much for that meme!

1 hr 54 min ago
TL;DR: Biden leads Democrats and all top Democrats lead Trump
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-10-23-2019/index.html
Biden leads Democrats and all top Democrats lead Trump
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-10-23-2019/index.html
snip//

A record level of enthusiasm heading into 2020

Democratic elites may not like their choices, but voters do.

One of the most interesting nuggets from our poll is that 43% of potential Democratic voters would be enthusiastic if Biden were the nominee. Warren, at 41%, and Sanders, at 39%, post similar percentages.

I was interested if these were lower than normal, given that there are reports that party actors are unhappy with how the primary is playing out. They're hoping for someone new to jump in the race.

Well, the percentages for the leading Democrats this year look as good, if not slightly better, than the last two Democratic nomination fights at this point. Back in early November 2007, 30% said they’d feel enthusiastic if Barack Obama was the Democratic nominee. For Clinton, it was 39%. John Edwards rang in with a mere 18% on this score.

Jump ahead to 2015 and you see something similar. In September 2015, 43% said they would be enthusiastic if Clinton were the nominee. It was 37% for Biden and 31% for Sanders.

[NJCher]

29. I'm sure you're aware

that market research surveys, polls, and the like have to be read with the understanding that people will say things that they don't necessarily mean. How a question is phrased, what the interviewee thinks the survey taker wants to hear--all play a role in the measurement.

The most accurate measure of enthusiasm is who is taking the time and trouble to go out for their candidate. Here we have a situation where someone felt the need to measure enthusiasm in terms of a survey. I think that's very interesting and it says a lot, if you can read between the lines. Can you?

Biden: 400
Bernie: 26,000

[UncleNoel]

30. Enthusiam that counts is not that of activists, but of he voters.

I was a McGovern supporter. We rode high on enthusiams, but the voters had a different view and he was swamped.

I met him personally. I liked him. I worked for him when I was a campaign manager for a Black candidate for congress in Montgomery, Alabama. I testified before the McGovern Committee on Party Reform in Meridian Mississippi (Birvh Bayh chairing).

I know something about grassroots support.

[Tiggeroshii]

15. There are 21 candidates. He is in at least 3rd place in every poll. I do consider that leading.

As he is easily leading 18 candidates.

[beastie boy]

17. Leading and leading 18 out of 21 candidates are two different things.

By this measure, I can say that Harris is consistently leading in the polls since she is leading 15 candidates. And Booker is consistently leading in the polls since he is leading 11 candidates. And Tim Ryan is leading in the polls because... oh wait, he dropped out.

[Tiggeroshii]

19. Correct about harris. But leading the vast majority of candidates is a little easier than

Leading 1 of 21.

[beastie boy]

23. In Bernie's case, leading the vast majority means he is consistently #3.

That makes him a contender, not a leader. English language is a bitch.

[UncleNoel]

27. Biden 27, Warren 21, Sanders 17, Buttigieg 7, Harris 5 (Biden +6)

All post third debate polls from RCP and 538:

Candidates Biden Warren Sanders Buttigieg Harris
RCP Average (rounded) 10/16-22: 27 21 17 7 5 Biden +6
Quinnipiac A- (LV) 10/17-21: 21 28 15 10 5 Warren +7
CNN/SSRS A- (RV) 10/17-20: 34 19 16 6 6 Biden +15
YouGov B (LV) 10/20-22: 24 21 15 8 5 Biden +3
The Hill C+ (RV) 10/21-22: 27 19 14 6 5 Biden +8
Emerson B+ (LV) 10/18-21: 27 21 25 6 5 Biden +2
Morning Consult B- (LV) 10/16-20: 30 21 18 6 6 Biden +9
Ipsos B+ (RV) 10/17-18: 24 17 15 5 4 Biden +7
SUSA A (LV) 10/15-16: 32 22 17 5 7 Biden +10

[UncleNoel]

33. I share a distrust of RCP. I make my own averages based primarily on 538.

[beastie boy]

36. And what is your own average based on 538?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

[beastie boy]

9. That Biden negative outlier you mentioned is from Rasmussen!

And they didn't even bother to rate Sanders to Trump. So the comparison is not exactly apples to oranges, but surely apples to orane-apple hybrids.

[Me.]

11. How Did RCP Get Such A Foothold On Polls

An October 2019 article in The Daily Beast reported that Real Clear Media manages a Facebook page of "far-right memes and Islamophobic smears." Anand Ramanujan, Chief Technology Officer for Real Clear Media, responded that the company created the website that was affiliated with the Facebook page"as part of an effort to understand the flow of traffic from social media—particularly Facebook—to political websites.”

Patrick Stack of Time magazine has described the site's commentary section as "right-leaning".[16] The site has been described as being run by conservatives, and containing "opinion pieces from multiple media sources".[17] In 2009 RealClearPolitics was described as a weblog "in the conservative pantheon" by Richard Davis.

In an interview with the conservative magazine Human Events, McIntyre described the philosophy behind the Web site as based on "freedom" and "common-sense values". Said Bevan, "We think debate on the issues is a very important thing. We post a variety of opinions". He further stated, "we have a frustration all conservatives have", which is "the bias in media against conservatives, religious conservatives, [and] Christian conservatives".

RealClearPolitics also owns RealClearMarkets, RealClearWorld, and RealClearSports.[24] RealClearMarkets and RealClearSports were launched in November 2007. RealClearWorld, the international news and politics site, was launched in August 2008. RealClearScience and RealClearReligion launched in October 2010.[25] RealClearHistory launched in 2012; in 2013 RealClearDefense was launched to cover military, intelligence, and veterans issues.[26]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RealClearPolitics

[Hortensis]

25. THIS. Everyone should know this.

[Me.]

31. I Only Found Out By Accident

[OldRed2450]

16. Sanders supporters...

Don't believe polls.. so I thought.

[Tiggeroshii]

20. That's an obfuscation if i never saw one

Largely we understand that polls of all kinds should be taken with a grain of salt whether or not our guy is doing well in them, but have more meaning the closer to the election we get. For instance, many polls around this time in the cycle in the 2008 election had obama losing to mccain.

[OldRed2450]

21. I see.

This is going to be a tough election for whoever wins the primary. It's clear, Barr will use the full force of the DOJ to steal this election.

[PhoenixDem]

18. That is because they both attack the Democrats n/t

[Hortensis]

26. RCP president: "we have a frustration all conservatives have,"

"the bias in media against conservatives,..."

John McIntyre and Bevans are the cofounders and McIntyle the president of Real Clear Politics.

Below is from 2001. "RCP"'s conservative contributions to electing Republicans have continued since its founding. They puffed Sanders and then Republicans against Democrats in 2015-16, as a review of their articles then shows. And so far are repeating that for 2020.

"The articles selected invariably demonstrate McIntyre and Bevan's political bent, ... Their Web site itself informs that " RealClearPolitics attempts to counterbalance the common liberal bias of the mainstream press by providing a more realistic look at the issues. Above all, we believe in freedom, personal responsibility, and the free market capitalist system..."

"I'm not really a die-hard Republican because my interests are less on social issues, more on taxing and spending," explains McIntyre, ... "But I definitely don't want the government telling me what to do with my property...

https://www.princeton.edu/~paw/web_exclusives/more/more_20.html

Sanders supporters should consider what it means that conservative and Russian powers keep pushing democratic socialist Sanders as the Democratic nominee. Don't for a moment imagine RCP's owners want him for president. If all goes as it should, the primaries will rain on McIntyre's and Bevans' parade in spite of their efforts. Plan to.

[Me.]

32. This

"Sanders supporters should consider what it means that conservative and Russian powers keep pushing democratic socialist Sanders as the Democratic nominee"

[LanternWaste]

34. Sanders is a very good third-tier candidate.

Now, if he could just figure out how to stop blaming polls and media for every misstep of his, maybe he can actually rise to second-tier status in a few months.

[Amimnoch]

35. National "popular vote" polls maybe,

But when it comes to the battleground states.. the states that are needed for 270 he’s been doing the worst of the top 3:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

May have evolved, I will be running another one of those in 2 weeks.

[floppyboo]

37. I don't know if that's correct, based on polling. check out this video:

&feature=em-uploademail

[Amimnoch]

38. No thanks, I'd rather stick with actual battleground state polling data.

Nice fantasy bit, but it still bases it all on national (or popular) polls. The fantasy election map has him winning state that frankly, and in reality he is not polling in nearly as well as Biden, and trails Warren.

Nevada is not impossible, it is battleground territory for Bernie, but that is likewise very optimistic that it'd be a given win.

Michigan and Wisconsin both do have a lean Bernie margin, but in both Biden polls better when matched up (as of most recent polls at least). In both those states, Bernie is points ahead, but within the margins of error, Biden is polling above the MOE.

In Ohio, both Biden and Bernie are indeed polling above the MOE. However, Whereas Bernie has gone up in the most recent poll in Ohio, Biden has been trending above the MOE over the last few polls. Just 2 polls ago, Bernie was at a -1 loss to Trump there.

I also, personally, put a LOT of stock in how Ohio polls, that is the only state in the nation that seems to continuously, over decades, vote in the direction that the outcome of the election reflects. No president has risen to office without Ohio's electoral votes since JFK.

Of course this is subject to change as time goes on, and may change a lot once the actual election season kicks off, but as of this time, I'm sticking with the one that is consistently winning the states that must be won.

[Kahuna7]

39. Bernie hasn't been vetted and subjected to the gop smear machine....

They'd love to run against him and the Squad.

[NurseJackie]

40. Put ME in the poll and I'd do better than Trump too...

... I think that when someone uses Trump as the yardstick, then it's a very low bar indeed.

What matters most is how the Democratic candidates poll with relation to EACH OTHER. The one who comes out on top after all the votes have been counted will be the one who gets to go up against Trump.

So many of the "Trump v. Sanders" posts going on right now, it seems as though the BS campaign just wants to SKIP the primary and head directly to the General Election. But I guess that makes sense when BS has such dismal numbers... which strongly suggest he's reached his peak... his high-water mark... his ceiling.