The Electability Argument at This Point is Mostly Political Spin

[Tom Rinaldo]

I wince or laugh (or both) every time I see some pundit on TV (or on DU for that matter) now seriously implore that only this or maybe that Democrat can defeat Trump in 2020. To begin with, there is no track record on earth historically more reliably wrong than the predictions made by political pundits almost two years out regarding who can and who can not win the presidency in the coming election. At this point in 1991 George Bush was viewed as unbeatable for reelection and Bill Clinton was merely an asterisk in an overview of the potential Democratic field of nominees. That example jumps out at me, but the litany of broken presidential crystal balls is endless.

Any Democrat with the wherewithal to make it onto a DNC sanctioned presidential debate stage can plausibly defeat Donald Trump in 2020, and most of them would at the least be likely to. "Likely to" of course is not a guarantee but there are rarely any guarantees in politics. Of course I believe that electability is a crucial factor in picking who Democrats should run in 2020, I just think it absurd for anyone to insist that they know now who can best defeat Donald Trump then. At this point in 2015 who do you know believed that Donald Trump would become the Republican nominee with Scott Walker, Mark Rubio and Jeb Bush all knocked out in the early rounds? Who thought Hillary Clinton wouldn't waltz through all of the Democratic primaries without losing more than one or two of them if any?

Donald Trump is a historically unpopular President no matter how you look at it. Women are the majority of the electorate and Trump does horribly with women, much worse in polling now than he did in 2016. The demographic shift long underway in America will be 4 years further along in 2020 than it was in 2016. Trump barely squeaked through a pin hole of a path to winning the Electoral College in 2016, and Democrats surged back during the midterms (which historically are better years for Republicans than Presidential election years) in the States that Trump squeaked through with in 2016.

Any Democrat who captures the imagination and enthusiasm of the electorate stands an excellent chance of defeating Trump in 2020. I would argue that no Democrat can capture the imagination and enthusiasm of the general electorate without first doing the same with Democrats. It is excitement that generates interest, and whoever excites on the Democratic side in the runoff to the Democratic Convention will be bestowed with national excitement and interest beyond just Democratic ranks. Right now serious arguments are made that Beot O'Rouke might just be that person. I accept the potential legitimacy of those arguments. But who among us could even conceive that Beto O'Rouke might be our best bet for defeating Donald Trump for President back back in March of 2017? No one. I repeat, no one.

A Hillary Clinton presidency loomed big at this stage in the 2008 race. A Hillary Clinton presidency loomed big at this stage in the 2016 race. She would have made an excellent President either time, not my personal ideal president but excellent still the same. In 2015/2016 one of the arguments used by Clinton supporters against Bernie Sanders was electability. I knew many personally and read many others here who admitted back then that they preferred Sanders on the issues to Clinton, but believed that Sanders could not win a General Election. This despite the fact that many polls found him running stronger against Trump than Clinton did. This despite the fact that Sanders favorability numbers were among the best of all national politicians while Clinton's were among the worst.

Hillary Clinton would have won the Electoral College in 2016 were it not for James Comey and the Russians. Agreed. But she was running against a deeply flawed and generally unpopular opponent in Donald Trump. Who knows how well Sanders would have done instead? That can be debated endlessly but none of us will ever really know. It was a very unusual year in politics. The old guard in the Republican Party, Jeb Bush and the like, certainly did not have the force with them that year. When it came to Democrats, to what extent was that a factor as well with Independent voters, who make up a larger bloc than either Democrats or Republicans?

One thing is certain. 2020 will not be the same as 2016. No two elections are ever the same and the mood of the public seldom stays fixed for long. All of this is just a long way of saying that I don't have the faintest idea now which of our potential Democratic candidates will seem most "electable" when the 2020 General Election is upon us. Anyone who expresses certainty on that point I am tempted to simply tune out. I am fine with all who make arguments in favor of why this or that candidate might be the more electable option, as long as they are not delivered as the Gospel Truth. We will all know a lot more by December, and a whole lot more by next March. To call America's politics volatile right now is an understatement of epic proportions.

I am for the moment very open to arguments in favor of this or that candidate on her or his merits. Electability? Not so much. Our most electable candidate could well end up being someone tried and true like Vice President Joe Biden. Or it could be the strongest shake up the system candidate out there, potentially a Bernie Sanders. Or a charismatic young new star candidate. Or a charismatic former prosecutor turned Senator female candidate. Or whoever else manages to bottle lightning between now and then.

Yes I will be assessing electability when it comes time to cast my primary ballot. That is over a year away.

[Firestorm49]

1. Couldn't agree more. It's far too early to be conjecturing who the nominee may be.

We still have candidates entering the game and a lot of soul searching to examine. Once the field is more defined, I’ll make a choice.

My bigger concern is how “fair” the election will be. This one will be a doozy, both during the campaign and after the results are determined.

[bigbrother05]

2. Exactly

In 1991, Poppy Bush wasn't worried about WJC and Ross Perot wasn't trending yet.

In 2007, John Edwards and HRC were set to battle it out and Rudy was the darling of the GOP.

There is a long way to go and we've got a lot of solid folks to sift through.

edit for correction