National Poll: Sanders Tied with Biden; O'Rourke Gets Post-Announcement Bump

[workinclasszero]

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders are tied at 26% in the most recent Emerson national poll.

Sanders’ support has increased 9 points from the Emerson February national poll, taken before he announced his campaign for President.

Following the frontrunners in the poll are California Senator Kamala Harris at 12% and former Texas Representative Beto O’Rourke at 11%.

Sanders holds a strong advantage among 18-29 year olds, receiving 42% of their vote.

Sanders also leads among 30-49 year olds with 30% support, while Biden leads among those 50-64 years old (39%) and 65 years or older (33%).

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/national-poll-sanders-tied-with-biden-o-rourke-gets-post-announcement-bump

[workinclasszero]

3. Emerson is rated B+ on FiveThirtyEight

[Uncle Joe]

10. Yes and Joe hasn't even entered the race, so that begs the question

how much of his support is based on him standing next to President Obama as Vice-President (nostalgia in the age of Trump) and how would it compare to a Candidate Joe Biden running for President?

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

21. Yes, I expect Biden to go down in the polls relative to Bernie...

though (the other) Uncle Joe would give Bernie the most competition, no doubt. The other candidates, not so much.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[workinclasszero]

15. All I know is...

You have to win the primary first.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

2. Go Bernie!! Sweeeet!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[workinclasszero]

4. Bernie is plus 9!!!!

Let the Berning begin!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

12. Bernie's killin' it... and he's only getting started!!!

Bernie's lead will only grow from here.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[George II]

40. In your OP you said they were tied. Which is it?

[workinclasszero]

8. Bernie leads in age categories from 18 to 49!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

17. Bernie connects with people of ALL ages because he speaks to the interests of ALL people...

Bernie doesn't speak to or for corporations and their board members, or Wall Street bankers, or special interest groups, or otherwise engage with those connected to PAC money interests, or the oil and gas industry... no, Bernie speaks to and for just regular folks looking to get a fair shake in life. That's what makes Bernie so special... that's why Bernie is going to walk away with the Democratic nomination and easily defeat pee-resident tRump!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[workinclasszero]

19. Totally agree

Bernie is not walking away from M4A like some and he is not dancing around issues either.

Bernie is the only pol in the race I trust on important issues.

And obviously I’m not the only one! 👍

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

23. Bernie's been a consistent leader on those important issues... he's no "Johnny come lately"

who needs pollsters and advisors to tell him what he believes or should say. No shit people trust Bernie... that's one of the main reasons why!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[workinclasszero]

25. You damn right brother!

[CentralMass]

33. I like that kind of talk.

[George II]

41. If you're using this poll as your yardstick, he obviously doesn't connect with 74% of the people.

[Uncle Joe]

6. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread workinclasszero

[workinclasszero]

9. No prob Uncle Joe

Bernie is on Fire 🔥

Up 9 points tying Joe and check those age brackets brother! Wow!

[namahage]

7. Interesting.

But why stop there? Surely the next paragraph is just as interesting:

Among those who supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Primaries, Joe Biden leads with 36%, followed by Harris and Sanders at 13%, O’Rourke at 12% and Warren at 8%. Of those who supported Sanders in the 2016 primary, 41% still support him, 18% now support Biden, 11% support Harris, 10% support Warren and 9% support O’Rourke.

I would think Bernie would have been able to hold on to at least half of his 2016 support. Instead, nearly half his 2016 support not only won’t support Bernie, but actually have another candidate in mind...

[Uncle Joe]

11. Not when taking in to consideration having teen number of opponents, retaining 41% is a good start,

not to mention Bernie's base is already and will be even more diversified in 2020.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

18. Exactly! Those numbers are astounding & will only go up, up, up as candidates drop out of the race.

Feel the Bern!!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[namahage]

22. That would seem to indicate, then,

That a large part of Bernie’s support was not FOR him, but AGAINST Hillary.
Perhaps they simply want to be part of the “new thing”? If so, how does Bernie win them back—or does he try for dissatisfied Trump voters? His choice of Briahna Gray, advocate of having conversations with racists, would seem to indicate the latter.

[Uncle Joe]

28. Shoppers or consumers are always on the lookout for new products

that's why new flavors or models are always coming out.

So they try something new, the test will be time.

Some of Bernie's supporters may not have known if he was even going to run, so they committed to other candidates.

As for Briahna, I believe she is correct, this is a nice in-depth article as to her point of view

Recently, I’ve been thinking about how to talk to white supremacists.

Conventional wisdom says that it can’t be done, at least not productively. For decades, Americans on both ends of the political spectrum have engaged in the project of shunting outright racism to the margins. As a result, we now consider racists to be monsters as foreign and grotesque as Godzilla. In fact, in the aftermath of the election, hundreds of thousands of keystrokes were devoted to answering the question of whether the left should deign to talk to any Trump voters, never mind avowed white supremacists. For many, the racist rhetoric that Trump rode to victory was so overt that anybody who voted for him lacked any “plausible deniability” of their bigotry.

These voters, it is assumed, cannot be persuaded. Although they are nearly demographically identical to the electorate that supported Romney, Bush, and McCain in past cycles, because Trump voters are real racists, the act of reaching out to them is a kind of political treason on the left, for whom explicit (but apparently not tacit) racism is a bridge too far. According to this logic, prejudice is as immutable a characteristic as skin color itself. And since racism is argued to be the single animating voting issue for this population, no appeals to other interests are worth making.

Not only is talking to Trump voters seen as futile, a desire to better understand them is often stigmatized as reflective of a preference for Trump voters and/or the bigoted ideologies that serve to marginalize communities of color, LGBTI persons, and religious minority groups. Bernie Sanders’ statement that Democrats should talk to Trump voters has been used to imply he’s racist. An A&E documentary about the Ku Klux Klan set to air in January was canceled in the wake of public backlash: audiences were convinced that the show would glamorize the KKK—a dangerous proposition in the age of Trump. In fact, the show was designed to do the opposite: it emphasized efforts to help extricate members of hate groups, including young children, from their environments. Regardless, the show was pulled from the schedule after it was revealed that its subjects were paid to participate—a tipping point that felt more like pretext than principle.

Moreover, among the political left, those who would talk to Trump voters to persuade them are recklessly conflated with those who would appease them through triangulation and compromise. People who empathize with these voters’ legitimate economic concerns are accused of caring more about Trump voters than about other groups perceived to be more deserving of empathy. Strategists who seek to better understand right-wing beliefs in order to undermine them are perceived to value them instead. No conversation with a Trump supporter (and certainly none with white nationalists) is acceptable unless it is openly antagonistic.

I’m not convinced this approach is helping.


(snip)


https://www.currentaffairs.org/2017/12/should-we-talk-to-white-supremacists

[namahage]

32. Except this poll is recent, from the last couple days,

So the possibility that supporters “didn’t know” he would be running is unlikely at best (what, they didn’t get the email?)

[TwilightZone]

31. Good point that rarely gets mentioned.

The assumption of many has been that his support was his alone and wouldn't leak to other candidates in the 2020 cycle. As we're already seeing, that's a shaky assumption and leads one to wonder how much of it was, as you noted, anti-Hillary sentiment. He doesn't have that to count on this cycle.

[workinclasszero]

13. And....

Bernie is still tied with Joe. Up a whopping +9 and climbing!

He also leads 18 to 29 year olds and 30 to 49 year olds!

This is massive good news for Bernie!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

20. I'm not the least bit surprised... Bernie's got the "Big mo"!!

Woooo-hoooo!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[workinclasszero]

24. Big MO!

I can’t wait till all the campaigns update on money raised and donor breakdowns.

And those million plus Bernie volunteers are doing stand up work for for the man I would say.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

26. I read somewhere that Bernie is closer to TWO million volunteers...

We're talkin' BIG MO on steroids!! No way the other campaigns will be able to keep up with Bernie... that is, unless the FBI investigation into shower-gate derails his campaign!! haha!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[workinclasszero]

27. TWO million!?

Wow! Well considering the +9 jump in mere days, I can believe that number!

I think Showergate has run its course.

Fake news

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

29. No, some are still worked up into a "lather" over shower-gate trying to dig up "dirt" on Bernie.

They won't be happy til his campaign "goes down the drain."


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[workinclasszero]

30. Well in some small places online I guess

But obviously polls show showergate is not resonating with the general public

[CentralMass]

34. You have me in stitches on that one.

[msongs]

14. gee you're no fun lol nt

[still_one]

16. Sanders has sent a clear message by three appointments to his campaign who all voted for Jill Stein

in 2016.

Briahna Joy Gray, David Sirota, and Nina Turner

These three people who not only voted for Jill Stein, but encouraged others NOT to vote for the Democratic nominee in the 2016 general election, contributed to who is in the WH now, and the loss of two SC appointments

hint:

It isn't a message of unity

and for those that want to believe national polls, that isn't how primaries and general elections are determined

[Freddie]

35. Thank you

It’s Dem Circular Firing Squad, Part 2

[bobGandolf]

36. I wouldn't mind Harris / Biden either.

I can not support Bernie, because he believes sticking to his agenda is more important than defeating Trump in 2020. He may not say that, but his actions in 2016, and 2019 show it.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

37. This is good news for Sander's supporters. It

is interesting how different our member support (at least half of us anyway) is so different than this poll).

I would think that our membership would reflect this strong support. I don't recall how we split last time...but seems I remember there was more support for Sander's than Hillary in primary.

[Amimnoch]

38. heh, last time, I think it was kind of hard to tell just how many each had.

I think there were periods where more were on FFR time outs than were active

Was a bait and band fest last time with both sides working to taunt members to crossing that thin line and get a time out.

I know I wasn't without guilt then.. I spent some time out, and did some baiting myself.

Hoping like hell it doesn't get that bad again, but as this is rolling along, I'm thinking that's a futile hope.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

39. Wish we had anonymous polling