The Caucus Map Shrinks in 2020

[RandySF]

March 11, 2019 at 3:18 pm ∙ Analysis, Mapping ∙ Brandon Finnigan

As we race towards 2020, state governments and parties have been changing their calendars. But some have gone a step further, switching from caucuses to primaries. The 2016 cycle saw a total of twenty states and territories nominate in the former method, and it gave a bit of a lift to one candidate who is facing this party’s voters yet again.

Bernie Sanders performed far more strongly in caucus states than in traditional primary ones, winning 387 delegates out of the 634 available from the 2016 caucuses. The difference in performance between the two styles of contest can be found in Washington’s results.

Sanders absolutely dominated the 3/26 state caucus, earning 72.72% of the legislative district delegates. Two months later, in the non-binding primary election, Hillary Clinton won the state by 5%, 420,461 votes to 382,293. Washington Democrats will decide on April 7th if they want to award delegates by caucus again or take advantage of the state’s move-up date for the Presidential primary.

Washington isn’t the only potential change on the map this year.

Nebraska, Minnesota, Colorado, Utah and Idaho have already restored their Presidential primaries. Maine passed legislation establishing a primary in 2016, but due to a legal quirk, it expired. The current Democratic trifecta in Augusta is trying to re-establish the primary date, with the cost of the operation being the biggest obstacle. Assuming they go for it and Washington follows through on it’s eyed change, only seven states would hold caucuses in 2020, joining the territories and Democrats Abroad. Fewer than 10% of all delegates available would be awarded through this method.

You might think that Bernie Sanders will face a tougher time winning nomination without caucuses, but that would ignore the size of the current field (over a dozen challengers versus a one-on-one fight in 2016) and the fact that he earned tens of millions of votes in primaries in 2016. The larger the crowd, the smaller the percentage you need to earn a delegate count advantage, and he’s maintained a loyal following even as the landscape has changed. A change in the rules state by state isn’t going to help or hurt him any more than it would the baker’s dozen of opponents he will face.


https://decisiondeskhq.com/the-caucus-map-shrinks-in-2020/

[Amimnoch]

1. Great news!

Thank you.



Democracy wins.

Here’s to hoping even more drop that non-Democratic methodology!

[RandySF]

3. And of Washington goes to a ptimary, then state election laws kick in

and you know what that might means...

[question everything]

2. And when you remember that the Iowa caucus are in February, when it can be quite cold

and the sun sets early..

Four years ago it was on a Monday, not a Tuesday. As luck had it, Monday was a nice day, Tuesday was a blizzard.

This was when ABC David Muir told his audience to "caucus early.."

[SFnomad]

5. This is excellent news ... glad to hear things are going in the right direction n/t

[Gothmog]

6. caucuses are very undemocratic and need to be eliminated

[R B Garr]

7. Amen! Glad to see this timely reduction.

People should be able to vote without being harangued and bullied.

[Gothmog]

8. I was part of the Obama voter protection team in 2008

In 2008, Texas had the Texas two step where 2/3rds of the delegates were allocated in the primary and ono-third in a caucus. The Obama people were into game theory and really did a great job of coaching people as to how to maximize the results in the caucuses. Clinton won the primary but Obama got the most Texas delegates due to the caucuses

[oasis]

9. Now we are really getting somewhere.

[manor321]

10. Good riddance. Now we just need to eliminate all remaining caucuses, and have closed primaries.

[NurseJackie]

11. Caucuses are undemocratic. They invite bullying and intimidation...

Caucuses are undemocratic. They take too long. They exclude many. The sacredness of the secret-ballot is trampled. They invite bullying and intimidation... and for some reason the candidate who is the LEAST qualified ends up being the one with the most rude and aggressive caucus goers (that's been my observations through the years). It makes a mockery of the entire democratic process. It's a total sham.