Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBiden retakes lead in RCP polling average
https://www.mediaite.com/news/biden-re-takes-lead-over-warren-in-polling-average-surges-with-black-voters-in-new-poll/On Tuesday, Warren took the lead in the RCP average for the first time, 26.6 percent to Bidens 26.4, but two days later Biden is back in the lead by a .2 percent margin. Thats because of a new Economist/YouGov poll that still shows Warren leading, but in which Biden improved on his performance since the last time the poll was taken.
Overall, Warren leads Biden in that poll 29 percent to Bidens 25, but that result is tighter than the 28-22 percent margin from last weeks Economist/YouGov poll. Thats not the most auspicious way to retake a lead, but it beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
The good news for Biden in this poll is that he surged six points with black voters, from 36 percent to 42 percent, increasing his dominance with a key Democratic constituency. He also gained two points each with white and Hispanic voters. Warren was steady with black voters at 15 percent, but she gained 4 points with Hispanic voters and three points with whites.
-snip-
Warren has significant momentum nationally, and has seen her support double since July, but shes only gained five points with black voters since then. The Democratic primary calendar gives outsize influence to predominantly white states like Iowa and New Hampshire, but a diverse coalition is crucial to the success of the partys primary candidates. Warren leads the RCP average in Iowa, but trails Biden in every other state that the site is tracking.
-snip-
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I'm editing the OP because it was pointed out RCP is using the Registered Voters #s (not the same #s 538 uses from this poll) for their polling average.
There were a number of discussions several weeks ago of RCP getting their numbers wrong, in more than one thread.
I'd missed the subthread of one OP where one DUer pointed out that RCP was using the Registered Voters #, which is well down the file from the top numbers.
The main point of this OP still stands.
If a lead of .2% for Warren was enough for DUers and many in the media to crow about her taking the lead in the RCP average, then a lead of .2% for Biden is enough to point out that he's retaken the lead.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)lol
Let's ALL celebrate Joe being back on top with a... 0.2% lead!
See the current RCP POLLS trend:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Seriously though, we are suppose to think a swing of a fraction of a percent is significant?
Hey, any port in a storm, eh? Will we be celebrating every time this goes back and forth by fractions over the next week or so?
Meanwile, Warren's surge to close to a dead heat and become a co-frontrunner is the real story, isn't it?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,034 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)I guess that's not worth discussing?
I mean, just look at what's happened over the last 6 weeks:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Warren has become a co-frontrunner!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Look again at the RCP POLLS Tracker:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
If Biden supporters wish celebrate swing of a fraction of a percent, hey, god bless 'em.
Meanwhile, Warren supporters do get to celebrate her amazing progress and her becoming a co-frontrunner, right?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,652 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,240 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,240 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,034 posts)if RCP hadn't padded her numbers.
It got her a lot of free publicity.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)THAT would certainly have been splashed all over the news regardless.
Any reasonable person would look at the trend and say "wow, Warren has really caught up with Biden and is a co-frontrunner now"
Anyone can see this for themselves at RCP POLLS:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
And, have you forgotten that RCP POLLS uses the REGISTERED voter results and not the likely voter results in its numbers?
This was pointed out to both you and me when we raised this issue in the past. Did you take this into account in your OP? I think perhaps not.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)You corrected and edited your OP, but you seem to have overlooked this post.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Warren was ahead in the latest poll btw, it's just that Biden "closed the gap" by enough to increase his RCP average by a fraction.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Quibbling over fractions of a percentage point while ignoring Warren's surge into co-frontrunner status is not a good look.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hav
(5,969 posts)or whether the pollster published several results for different voter groups (likely voters, registered etc.). But the OP has nothing to do with unskewing polls. It's about questioning why an outlet repeatedly uses different poll results than other outlets or what the pollster seemed to have published.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,034 posts)would never have been the frontrunner in their polling average.
Their mistake, if it was just a mistake, gave her lots of free favorable publicity.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Because that's where RCP has been using its numbers from the YouGov polls.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bluewater
(5,376 posts)The entire OP is moot.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,034 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)We all make mistakes, but the entire premise of your OP is mistaken.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,034 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Honestly, the OP loses it's punch without the accusation that RCP padded Warren's numbers since its now only about Joe regaining the lead by A FRACTION OF A PERCENT.
Again, that seems to be a small thing to grasp onto since Biden has lost his commanding lead and now is virtually tied with Warren.
But hey, thanks for the discussion.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)You have corrected your mistake in the OP, but this post is still making an incorrect claim.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)data that showed Warren with such a slight lead she was considered in a virtual tie with Biden. Call it leading by half a nose, a co-frontrunner, or tied with Biden, RCP data was flawed. Corrected to show an accurate reading of the YouGuv poll, Warren does not lead.
Please re-read the OP. Nothing has been skewed to get to the accurate RCP number.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Not the likely voter results in the polls it posts.
Another DU-er pointed this out to me and the OP author in the past when we both questioned the RCP numbers.
A poll's results for registered voters can be slightly different than the results that include likely voters.
So, the entire premise of the OP is flawed and simply mistaken.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,497 posts)polls in Morning Consult and especially HarrisX.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSi5aaWoVmwcb6Ct9z_7-AuP5I1UTQV-yXF-7U0sramBKveq00DQXw2EbgzL2Tpn9nAj5Lwrawn795d/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&gid=0
If anything truly thinks Biden has a 19 point lead over the field (HarrisX's spread) well then,
I have a bridge for sale:
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)For the record, they only use the Harris polls that are "partnered" with the Wall Street Journal or Harvard.
Those come out about once a month or so.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,497 posts)Harvard-Harris is no prize either, it is run by the Rump apologist Mark Penn and also is an outlier, just not as bad as HarrisX and Morning Consult
https://theharrispoll.com/our-firm/#leadership-sec
HarrisX is run by the RW pollster Scott Rasmussen (he sold off the shitty, RW loaded Rasmussen Reports poll years ago, and now his HarrisX poll is showing Rump with even higher approval ratings than Rasmussen Reports, lol)
https://blog.harrisx.com/blog/2018/08/harrisx-partners-with-veteran-pollster-scott-rasmussen-on-new-daily-poll-tracking-american-political-sentiment
https://web.archive.org/web/20190930152329/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)Thanks for pointing that out and clearing up my confusion.
At least the daily HarrisX polls are not included every week, The Hill/HarrisX poll comes out less often.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,497 posts)I do believe Biden still has a massive lead in the southern states and with my fellow POC, but that can all change (ask Hillary 2008) with a huge showing by his opponents in IA, NH, and NV, coupled with poor showings by Biden in those 3 states.
Biden needs to get in front of this Ukraine RW claptrap and with a quickness. I still think that a Biden/Abrams ticket is the surest shot (followed by a Biden/Harris ticket) to defeat the monster Rump in general, but he needs to dig deep and show that he is fully the dominant player, a player who can overcome the Rumpian squad's hit jobs.
I am having a hella hard time selling this within my age-cohort/social set in real life. I am 23 and most of my social set is 18 to 30ish. The front runners with them are Warren, Pete, and Harris, in that order. Almost all the Bernie people from 2016 (I was O'Malley, so there is that, lolololol, I did not even get to vote for him as he dropped out before the California primary) are either in the Warren camp or for my choice, Pete. It is mostly my California mates who are for Harris. She has trailed off (with them) NOT because of the Biden argy bargy, but because so many are unsure of what she truly stands for. She made a large mistake, IMHO, by trying to veer into the far left lane dominated by Bernie and Warren. She should have went in a direction similar to Buttigieg or even more towards Biden's stances, but with a fresher perspective and facing up.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Skya Rhen
(2,701 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,034 posts)unedited version.
I'd thought RCP was using incorrect #s, something there had been earlier DU discussions about.
I hadn't seen a subthread in one DU discussion later that brought up RCP using the registered voters #, which is a couple of tables below the top #s.
So I've edited my OP to focus on what had been the main point anyway, that Biden has retaken the lead in the RCP average.
There was a LOT of media coverage of Warren having taken the lead when she was .2 points ahead of Biden.
We'll see if the same outlets and reporters give any coverage to Biden having retaken the lead.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)That's the real story about the state of the primary race, not if the lead changes back and forth by small percentages or, as in this case, a mere fraction of a percent.
I mean, just look at the RCP Polls Tracker chart... it's a stunning development.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,652 posts)Thank you, highplainsdem
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,554 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)They tied for the lead.
Why do you care if someone wants to "crow."
The reality is what it is, it's currently tied.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided