Eight of 12 Democratic Nominees Emerged Late

[bluewater]

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Implications for 2020

Gallup's historical preference polls for the Republican and Democratic nominations show that much can change in voter preferences in the last six to 12 months before the parties' nominating conventions. Candidates who have emerged early on as the favorite among the party's rank-and-file often have succeeded in capturing the nomination. However, across both major parties, there are just as many examples of the winner not emerging from the field until the start of the election year or later.

The historical guidance for a vice presidential candidate, such as Joe Biden, isn't clear. All four sitting vice presidents who ran for their party's nomination succeeded: Gore in 2000, Bush in 1988, Humphrey in 1968 and Nixon in 1960. And of these, those who entered the race early (all but Humphrey) led the field early. Of the four candidates who ran as former vice presidents -- Dan Quayle in 2000, Mondale in 1984, Humphrey in 1972 and Nixon in 1968 -- two (Mondale and Nixon) led early and captured the nomination; one (Humphrey) picked up steam midway, but lost; and one (Quayle) never got off the ground, polling weakly in 1999 before dropping out after a few months.

Biden has led the field in national polls continuously all year, but with his margin over Elizabeth Warren narrowing a full four months before the start of the primary season, there is no precedent to indicate the likelihood he will hold on.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/267179/democratic-nominees-often-secured-lead-late-campaign.aspx?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=o_social&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=

[Funtatlaguy]

1. I would bet you Trumps new orange jumpsuit it will be Biden or Warren.

[George II]

2. I'll see your trump's orange jumpsuit and raise you donnie jr.'s orange jumpsuit...........

Couldn't resist, but I'm pretty sure you're correct.

[Thekaspervote]

3. Funnieeeee!!

[Mr.Bill]

4. California moving their primary up to Super Tuesday

changes the importance of coming to the front early. Whole different ball game.

[elleng]

5. Is this a threat, or a promise????

[brooklynite]

6. Perhaps so...but none of the available data show any of the late arrivals trending...

Let's also stipulate that election mechanics have changed since the 70s and 80s.