Fox News SOUTH CAROLINA primary poll: Biden 41%, Warren 12%, Sanders 10%, Harris & Steyer 4%,

[highplainsdem]

Booker 3%, Buttigieg 2%, all others 1% or less


Polling done Sept. 29 - Oct. 2.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-results-september-29-october-2-2019-south-carolina

[LovingA2andMI]

1. We're quoting polls from Faux News

now? On DU? Really?

[highplainsdem]

3. A-rated poll, according to FiveThirtyEight, and Fox News polls have been quoted here regularly.

They haven't exactly been favorable to Trump, and he's been doing a lot of bitching about it.

Haven't seen Democrats complaining about those polls, till now.

[George II]

12. I was just going to post exactly that - they're rated A, and Fox News polls....

....have been posted frequently.

[Perseus]

4. It doesn't matter where the news comes from as long as it fits my narrative, interesting isn't it?

But now it goes back to my fear and my question on why are republicans pushing so hard for Biden? Why do they want Biden to win?

They are definitely pushing hard for Biden, almost campaigning for Biden...Someone forgot to put the fish in the refrigerator and the kitchen is starting to stink.

[highplainsdem]

9. A-rated poll according to FiveThirtyEight.. The pollster Fox uses is headed by a Democrat and a

Republican.

They had Hillary leading Trump in 2016, though that lead was down to 4% by the day before the election.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-clinton-moves-to-4-point-edge-over-trump

They had her at 48%. She got 48.2% of the popular vote.

They had Trump at 44%. He got 46.1% of the popular vote.

They had Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, at 3%. He got 3.27% of the popular vote.

They had Jill Stein at 2%. She got 1.07%.

[Skya Rhen]

15. There is no one so blind as one who refuses to see. Everyone knows that this is a gold standard

pollster accepted by the DNC and all major news networks, including CNN and MSNBC.


https://democrats.org/news/third-debate/

DNC Announces Details For Third Presidential Primary Debate

Each poll must be sponsored by an approved organization, which presently includes the following: Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Des Moines Register, Fox News, Monmouth University, NBC News, New York Times, National Public Radio (NPR), Quinnipiac University, University of New Hampshire, Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Washington Post, and Winthrop University. Any candidate’s four qualifying polls must be conducted by different organizations, or if by the same organization, must be in different geographical areas. The DNC and its media partners reserve the right to add a Nevada-specific poll sponsor to this list in the near future.

[Cha]

43. Thanks, Skya!

[cwydro]

20. Yes, interesting.

I do hope Warren does some more appearances down there.

[Thekaspervote]

28. If it's an A rated poll by 538, then it's squeaky clean... that means no manipulation regardless

Of the publisher

[emulatorloo]

35. Examples of Republicans "pushing hard" and "campaigning" for Biden?

[Cha]

41. lol!

[honest.abe]

11. I trust nothing that comes directly from Fox news but this poll was done by a third party pollster.

Who has a very high rating at 538. I think its legit.

[honest.abe]

21. Methodology

Interviews were conducted September 29 - October 2, 2019 among a random sample of 803South Carolina Democratic primary voters contacted on landlines (234) and cellphones (569).Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3.5 percentage points.Telephone numbers were randomly selected from a statewide voter file of registered SouthCarolina voters using a probability proportionate to size method, which means phone numbersare proportionally representative to the number of voters in all regions across the state.Respondents were screened to identify potential participants in the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary election.

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) (formerlyknown as Anderson Robbins Research) and Shaw & Company Research (R).

Note: In 2019, the firm Anderson Robbins Research changed its name to Beacon Research; the Fox Newsbipartisan polling team remains unchanged.

Fieldwork conducted by Braun Research, Inc. of Princeton, NJ.
Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted. An asterisk (*) is used for percentages of less than one-half percent. A dash (-) represents a value of zero.Some percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. In the same way, percentages in “total”columns may be one point more or less than the sum of their parts due to rounding.

[Demsrule86]

23. We always have...these polls are A rated.

[George II]

2. In other words, Biden gets 100% of the delegates, all others zero.

[MineralMan]

5. Bingo! And how many delegates does SC send to the convention?

Counting delegates hasn't really begun yet, but it will soon enough. Really, when it comes to choosing a Democratic nominee, nothing else matters, and even red states send delegations to the Convention.

Remember the 15% rule as we get closer to the primaries and caucuses. it will be in play in a major way.

[George II]

10. South Carolina has 54 delegates...

In the first four states, here's how it stacks up (RCP averages):

41 Iowa Warren 26.2, Biden 24, Sanders 16.3 (16, 15, 10)
24 New Hampshire Biden 23.2, Warren 21.0, Sanders 17.2 (9, 8, 7)
36 Nevada Biden 24.0, Sanders 21.7, Warren 18.3 (14, 12, 10)
54 South Carolina Biden 38.3, Warren 16.0, Sanders 13.3 (38, 16, 0)

That would give:

Biden 15+9+14+38 = 76
Warren 16+8+10+16 = 50
Sanders 10+7+10+0 = 27

[MineralMan]

14. The calculations can be very difficult, really,

because of the 15% rule.

[George II]

19. Yes. As soon as anyone drops below 15% it changes the entire calculation dramatically.

[MineralMan]

22. It can be a nightmare to figure out.

I remember a local race here where the calculations were really, really complex. I'm not sure anyone really understands the formulas completely. It gets even more complicated when you break it down to the district level and are assigning delegates from individual districts.

I"m glad I'm not involved with any of those calculations. Really...

[George II]

25. The numbers I calculate can be off by one or two in each case simply because of the district level..

Even though a candidate gets less than 15% overall in a state, there could be a few districts where he/she could exceed 15%, giving that candidate one or two delegates (depending upon how that state allocates delegates). There's no way this can be accounted for in advance of the actual voting.

[MineralMan]

26. Exactly. Still, a rough calculation is usually close enough, in the end.

The media is typically pretty good at making the calculations, too, once the election returns are in. Some states, like Iowa, though, can't really provide an accurate delegate count until after the state convention.

[honest.abe]

16. Which would give Joe a nice boost into Super Tuesday.

Which I suspect would be a very good day for him.

Thanks for working out those numbers!

[Thekaspervote]

29. Thx for the breakdown!! Always good to see them laid out so clearly

[Perseus]

7. Well, according to a very reliable news outfit like Faux News, yes...

You see, Faux News is not reliable, unless it fits my narrative, then I can pick and choose. If their "news" supports my candidate, then of course it is reliable, anything else is not.

I have said it a lot, but no one seems to notice the push republicans are making to not only talk about Biden as "trump's opponent" while dismissing all others, even though at DU Warren has a huge lead, and people I talk to seem to be favouring her (I understand my circle of friends does not make for a full poll), but what I hear in other places. I am worried that republicans are driving the narrative in favour of Biden, and I worry we are falling for some trap.

Since when has anyone at DU considered Faux News reliable? When did that start?

[highplainsdem]

17. See reply 15. The DNC accepts Fox News polls.

[Thekaspervote]

30. Since it's an A rated poll by 538, it means it's very legit regardless of the publisher

Nate Silver and harry entire do not play favorites. They are techie pollster nerds... that’s it. They do not play favorites

[peggysue2]

37. So, Republicans are playing 10-dimensional chess . . .

As they slam Biden day-and-night for fictional qualities of corruption, shaking down Ukraine and any country that will dig up dirt on the Biden family. While Trump calls out China (China if you're listening . . .), it's really a head fake because he WANTS to compete with Joe Biden. And all those Republican members marching before TV cameras, saying how the Biden family MUST be investigated over corruption is really a way to sweet talk Democrats into nominating Biden over Warren because . . .

They're so damn smart, so devilishly clever.

LOL. Really?

There's convoluted and then there's this reasoning.

And btw, DU and/or any other social media platform is not the Democratic Party. It's a mere sliver. Out in the hinterlands? There are legions.

[Skya Rhen]

6. Among AAs Biden 50%, Sanders 9%, Warren 8% - somebody has a lot of work to do with this part of the

base...

[Thekaspervote]

31. This! For those interested SC is the bellwether for the AA voting block. Keep your eye on SC and

That pretty much will tell the national story for AA voters

Happy to provide factual links!!

[ritapria]

8. Fox News do good polls

I realize they lie morning, noon and night but they sponsor good polling ……..Although they do allow Shep Smith on air . He's great …. Wow , Joe is killing it in SC !.... I'm impressed

[highplainsdem]

18. I wonder if Trump will take time out from smearing Romney and Schiff and Biden to attack Fox for

this poll?

The last time he attacked their polling, they pushed back.

[Demsrule86]

24. I have had my differences with Sen. Sanders but he is my second choice as I believe he is the only

candidate other than Biden who has a chance (Wisconsin). I was very sorry to see he had a heart attack or heart issues...the media is all over the place. I want you to know I wish him a speedy recovery and should he choose to do so...will welcome him back on the campaign trail with best wishes.

[Thekaspervote]

32. Same here...we must win at all costs

[UniteFightBack]

39. Thank you for your honest objectivity. It's refreshing. nt

[honest.abe]

13. As I have said before no Democrat can win without the black vote.

Warren and Sanders cannot win if these numbers are any indication of the rest of the country.

[Gothmog]

27. From Nate

Link to tweet

[Thekaspervote]

33. This from the mouth of one of if not the single most reliable pollster .

Thx for posting Gothmog

[Gothmog]

34. I have been following Nte for a very long time

I really like Nate

[Thekaspervote]

36. Me too! He took a lot of heat in '16 for saying he didn't think Hillary had it "sewed up"

And with great misfortune.... he was right

[Gothmog]

38. Biden now at 50% with Black voters in South Carolina.

Link to tweet

[UniteFightBack]

40. Wow this is really impressive. I wonder if rump's baseless attacks and his obvious fear of Biden

will actually give him a boost. My support for Biden is ROCK SOLID and it ain't going ANYWHERE.

[Tarheel_Dem]

42. The South belongs to Biden. n/t