Warren Leads Biden By 4% in New National Poll

[DrFunkenstein]

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) leads the Democratic primary field by 4 points in the latest Economist/YouGov weekly tracking survey, leapfrogging former Vice President Joe Biden as she continues to enjoy a boost in the polls.

Twenty-six percent of respondents who say they will vote in their Democratic presidential primary or caucus said Warren is their first choice, a 1-point bump from last week’s survey, while 22 percent said the same for Biden, down from 25 percent last week.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was the only other candidate to register double digit support, at 14 percent, while South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) rounded out the top five at 7 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Warren topped the poll in part by chewing into key demographics for Biden and Sanders. The Massachusetts lawmaker cut her deficit on Biden to 2 points among voters aged 65 years and older and is only behind Sanders by 3 points among voters aged 18-29. She also leads among white voters with 31 percent support, compared to 18 percent for Biden and 13 percent for Sanders.

Warren also edges out Biden by 5 points among self-identified Democrats, 28 percent to 23 percent, though the poll shows a stiff competition for independents, with both Warren and Biden coming in at 20 percent and Sanders getting 18 percent among such voters.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/463997-warren-passes-biden-to-lead-field-by-4-points-nationally-poll

[Tiggeroshii]

1. Warren is establishing her dominance in this race.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

28. No question!! So damn proud of the campaign Elizabeth is running!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[Tiggeroshii]

34. Me too...

Not gonna lie, hope Bernie can make a comeback soon too! With both his support and his health... Like you, I love them both!

[LongtimeAZDem]

2. But she cannot win the Rust Belt; she has no Electoral path to victory

We're going to throw it away. Again.

[Voltaire2]

4. oh nonsense.

[cwydro]

10. Ditto!

Complete and utter.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

31. Can we just call it what it is... bullshit?! Elizabeth would DESTROY tRumpy all across the country!!

Elizabeth is poised to break the glass ceiling and, as the most competent female candidate to ever run for President, it would be awesome thing to watch. Go Elizabeth!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

32. All some have are nonsensical talking points...it's just confirmation that Elizabeth

is kickin' ass and takin' names!! Go Elizabeth!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[TheFarseer]

6. Interested to know

Why you think she can’t win the rust belt.

[cwydro]

11. I could make a pretty good guess why posters say that about the rust belt.

We all know why.

[LongtimeAZDem]

15. Of course we do. I don't like it, but it's stupid to ignore it.

Wishful thinking and unsupported optimism are not going to help us when Trump is reelected and we lose Ginsburg.

[cwydro]

17. I agree completely.

Kinda sad too.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

33. It's so obvious!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

[griffi94]

8. I think she will win the Rust Belt.

And she's exactly what's needed to energize voters under 40 years of age.

[Demsrule86]

13. Yes, just like in past elections...this is a winnable election but we will lose the EC ...

Let's hope that this is more BS on the part of the media and pollsters.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

16. Malarkey!

[bluewater]

21. Warren will certainly win the rustbelt.

Trump is toast.

[DrFunkenstein]

22. A $2 TRILLION Investment in Green Manufacturing in the Rust Belt?

Warren released an “economic patriotism” platform that she said would include a $2 trillion investment over the next 10 years in green research, manufacturing and exporting green energy technology.

Warren would help create domestic demand for new American products through $1.5 trillion in federal procurement over a decade.

“The federal government’s World War II-era commitment to purchasing military items led to an enormous surge in American manufacturing capacity and set the stage for decades of sustained economic growth,” Warren wrote, arguing the government should stock its fleet with electric and energy-efficient vehicles and other products. “This will create immediate demand, spurring innovation and investment in the American clean energy sector.”

Companies supplying those goods under a federal contract would need to offer a $15 an hour wage, 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave, and guarantee collective bargaining rights.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/446852-warren-unveils-2-trillion-green-jobs-plan

What has Trump got for all those promises he made in 2016 to the Rust Belt?

[Blue_true]

37. People have said that each time she first ran for an office.

Friends in Massachusetts say that the early prognosis in the Senate race was that she would be the weakest candidate against Scott Brown. But she worked the count full and then got an approval to get on the primary ballot at her party's convention. She then won the nomination at the ballot box, and the rest is history.

[Voltaire2]

3. Hmmm... Mr. Inevitable is not looking so inevitable anymore.

Which is good, as in my opinion he is unelectable.

[bluewater]

20. ikr

[griffi94]

5. She's still trending up.

And she seems to be steadily gaining momentum.
I expect this to be the new norm as more people become
familiar with her and her policies.

[Funtatlaguy]

7. Both Biden and Warren would beat Trump easily

But they won’t face him. He’s gone iff the deep wind. The gop will pull in someone like Romney.

[honest.abe]

9. Opt-in online poll.

I still dont trust them.

[emmaverybo]

12. Harris X poll from Sept. 28-Oct. 1 shows Biden still in the lead, way ahead of Warren. Opt-in online

poll not credible.

[progressoid]

19. Harris X also inflates Trumps approval to 48%.

538 gives Harris X a C- rating

YouGov gets a B

[videohead5]

23. This is a online poll?

I knew I seen a poll yesterday that showed Biden ahead. I wondered how this one today made any sense.

[emmaverybo]

25. Yes. NT

[Blue_true]

38. Yougov has proven itself to be a reliable poll. nt

[emmaverybo]

39. Online. Opt-in. Just no.

[Blue_true]

40. It has been extensively vetted for accuracy and fared well. nt

[ritapria]

14. I don't support Biden or Warren but I feel

Warren is taking over the race …..Joe needs to pickup his game - particularly in the upcoming debates ….We know Warren is going to perform well in future debates ….. She is poised to win Iowa and NH by 5-10% …..She is starting to make inroads amongst African-Americans …… SC will not be the Biden blowout he needs to remain viable on Super Tuesday …..It should be over on Super Tuesday ….No one wants a protracted bitter primary fight and everyone will rally around Liz in short order ….. Unless the media turn on her , she's got this thing pretty much wrapped up ...I am a Bernie supporter and don't have a dog in the Biden- Warren fight ...I shouldn't refer to Warren as a dog ….I don't mean that to be offensive

[emmaverybo]

29. She is taking over the media attention. She is ahead by a wee bit in two states. Recent Harris

Last edited Wed Oct 2, 2019, 04:58 PM - Edit history (1)

X poll shows Biden way ahead of Warren nationally. Online polls have not been accurate in recent past elections according to Nate Silver.

[Buzz cook]

18. Tortoise and the hare

Dedicated people working on the ground and Warren giving a message that resonates with most people. She was bound to get a lead in the polls at some point.

[BlueMTexpat]

24. This.

Whether this poll is accurate or not, this is exactly what is happening with her campaign.

[DrFunkenstein]

26. It is in keeping with the RCP average trend

That has shown her consistently moving closer and closer to Biden. She's currently only 1.7% behind him on average, so it shouldn't surprise to see her starting to inch ahead.

[BlueMTexpat]

27. Exactly.

And I am loving it.

[evertonfc]

30. too bad

Love her but she will not win Texas or Florida. I see her competing but it will be much more difficult in a General. Biden will trounce Trump and put 4-6 states in play.

[FloridaBlues]

35. Actually good for Warren to be in front for awhile perhaps her policies will get

More of a vetting process so we can see how she handles incoming. She hasn't had much much vetting to date.

[jcgoldie]

36. "But but but she can't win cuz' dummies in the flyover states won't vote for a giiiiirrrrrllll..."

(That's what de facto sexism looks like on a Democratic message board folks.)

[Gothmog]

41. Does Warren Have Room to Grow?

If the NYT's expert is correct, then Warren may be near her ceiling https://politicalwire.com/2019/10/02/does-warren-have-room-to-grow/

Nate Cohn: “Elizabeth Warren is gaining. She has breached 20 percent of the vote in recent national surveys and might hold a narrow lead in Iowa and New Hampshire. The prediction markets now consider her a clear favorite to win the nomination. It can be hard to see how her Democratic rivals will attack or stop her.”

“But the challenge facing Ms. Warren, if past primaries are any indication, isn’t those rivals. It is whether she will hit a wall: the rank and file of the Democratic primary electorate.”