Monmouth and YouGov national polls out today have Warren ahead by a few points

[highplainsdem]

And additional questions asked by the Monmouth poll show Biden is being hurt by Trump's lies about Ukraine. They found even 20% of Dems believed the lies about Biden, though their polling also showed that those who believed the smears weren't likely to be Biden supporters anyway.

Economist/YouGov poll:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eb2rrb9ofh/econTabReport.pdf



Monmouth:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_100219/

The Monmouth poll also finds that 43% of registered voters believe Trump’s claim that Biden probably did pressure Ukrainian officials to keep them from investigating his son’s business interests there. This compares to 37% who say that Biden probably did not do this and 20% who are unsure. Among self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, 67% say Biden probably did this and 15% say he did not, with 17% being unsure. Among self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, 21% say Biden probably did this and 60% say he did not, with 18% being unsure. Among true independents, 39% say Biden probably did this and 27% say he did not, with 34% being unsure.

“The fact that 4-in-10 independents are inclined to believe what they have heard from Trump is a warning sign for the Biden campaign. How the candidate fights back against this charge will be crucial to his argument of electability,” said Murray.

The poll finds Warren (28%) and Biden (25%) at the front of the pack for the presidential nomination preferences of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters across the country, with Sanders (15%) following behind. Monmouth’s August poll, which showed a three-way race at the top among Warren (20%), Biden (19%), and Sanders (20%), was considered an outlier at the time it was released. Still, Biden’s backing remains lower in the current poll than it was early in the summer (32% in June) whereas Warren’s support continues to grow (15% in June). Support for Sanders is in line with where it stood in June (14%).

The rest of the field includes Buttigieg at 5% (similar to his 4% to 5% showing in Monmouth polls since June) and Harris at 5% (down from her range of 8% in summer polling). Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and author Marianne Williamson each earn 2%, while the remaining 11 candidates included in the poll register 1% or less.

-snip-

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters who feel that Biden pressured Ukraine officials not to investigate his son, 45% have a favorable view of the candidate, 48% have an unfavorable view. Among those who feel this did not happen, 85% have a favorable view and 10% have an unfavorable one. Among those who are unsure about the claims of Biden’s actions in Ukraine, 61% have a favorable view of him and 20% have an unfavorable one.

“This is a bit of a chicken and egg problem. It is likely that many of those Democrats who say Biden pressured Ukraine were never going to be his supporters to begin with,” said Murray. Among those who say Biden probably pressured Ukraine, 31% support Sanders for the party’s presidential nomination, 15% support Biden, 15% support Warren, 5% back Buttigieg, 4% back Harris, and many others throw their support to candidates who are not polling well overall, such as Williamson (5%), former cabinet secretary Julián Castro (4%), and Yang (3%).

And before anyone here thinks this just means Biden's a weaker candidate and Trump can't do the same thing to any of our other candidates, keep in mind that Trump is lying, and the media have said he's lying.

But you still have a nonstop barrage of lies, and you have many voters who get most if not all their news from RW sources.

[OKNancy]

1. Trump's smear is working

I hope Joe will put together some professionally made ad to counter this

Link to tweet

[highplainsdem]

3. Mark Murray's right. With the smear hurting Biden despite all the fact-checking, Dems

should be worried about what Trump's lies can do against any of our candidates.

[bluewater]

10. nah, Biden's support is where it's been since the middle of August

In the 26-29% range, fluctuating up and down some.

Biden was losing ground to Warren since that time, and that trend started way before the Ukraine business.

Biden was at 26% before on August 25th and September 16th, way before the Guilianni Ukraine smear hit the news.

[qazplm135]

5. Trump is relying on the third of the country

who believe "both sides do it" and "both sides suck" and revel in their I'm a better person because I haven't picked a side and I'm cynical.

Trump just needs a sliver, and that comes from the fact that his son working for Ukraine was a slice of privilege.

Does that make Biden corrupt? Of course not. But they don't need that, they just need a sliver.

[Yoopy]

2. Gabbard dropped below 1%

She's listed as <1.

[qazplm135]

4. As I've repeatedly said

polling is going to change several times over the next few months.

Relying on summer polling is a fool's errand.

Relying on polling a year out is even worse.

And even now there's as much a chance that Warren AND Biden don't end up winning as there is either of them do.

The only thing the polling tells us is the current snapshot...and the current snapshot is that Warren and Biden are currently co-leaders.

H#ll, for all we know...Buttigieg comes out the winner (although I doubt it).

[redstatebluegirl]

6. Even relying on it close to the election is nuts.

Look at 2016, nothing matched or even close to matched the outcome in the battleground states.

[qazplm135]

12. I mean for the most part sure it did

We knew PA and FL and VA were going to be close and they were.

Heck MOST of the states turned out just like we thought.

I don't think anyone thought WI or MI were going to be a blowout, but yes polling and all of us (even Trump) thought she'd win those two for sure and PA probably.

They were off by a few percentage points...which is not really that surprising. Happens every election.

Not a lot of polls had Obama winning Indiana in 2008.

My point is not that polls are worthless...they have value, it's just that value is dependent greatly on three things:

1. Questions asked
2. Time in relation to election
3. Sample size

If you don't have all three tight, you've got a poll that is as close to a guess as anything. If you have all three, then you have something that is more scientific than some want to believe but by no means foolproof.

[honest.abe]

7. From Monmouth poll -- "Biden's drop.. is coming mainly from voters in states.. after Super Tuesday"

That is an important note.

[DrFunkenstein]

8. The Appearance of a Conflict of Interest Can Be Manipulated By Liars

Although Biden did nothing illegal, the appearances can be manipulated by Repube lies. Hopefully, time will sort this out in the public mind. A lot of people are still unclear as to what happened, so we can only hope that truth prevails.

The media still operates in the he said/she said mode that has been sending the country into hole after hole because the GOP has mastered how to manipulate it.

Biden is absolutely a good, decent man. He has built that reputation for decades, and my guess is that his reputation will eventually serve him to clear away these despicable slanders.

[still_one]

9. exactly, they weren't Biden supporters, and most likely DON'T believe the accusations, but are just

hoping to elevate their candidate

[helpisontheway]

11. Elizabeth was surging prior to this..nt