David Binder (Obama pollster) national poll, Likely Voters: Biden 34%, Warren 17%, Sanders 15%,

[highplainsdem]

Harris 7%, Buttigieg 5%, Booker & O'Rourke 3%, Gabbard & Yang 2%, all others 1% or less


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/



https://thirdway.imgix.net/pdfs/override/Third-Way-Dem-Primary-Poll-Q3-Results.pdf

[Cha]

1. Hmmmm!

Thank you,

[DownriverDem]

9. Who can win?

Biden is still our best candidate to win the Electoral College which is state by state.

[UncleNoel]

2. Joe is ticking up toward the mid-thirties

RCP's average includes several low-lying polls. When new polls are averaged we will find Joeis up.

When the ooing gets tough, the tough get going. So they say.

[Thekaspervote]

3. Indeed this is good news!

Was just looking at RCP. Quinnipiac was such a shift from the month before when other polls did not show that.

Plus 538 just out with some new state polls that were nothing like Quinnipiac. Now, b4 anyone jumps, I know Quinnipiac is highly rated. Just questioning their last poll.

[UncleNoel]

5. Also Emerson and Economist had lows for Joe

with Warren and him in a dead heat (Emerson 23/22; Economist 26/27).

These may reflect a real "surge" for Warren (Good for her!), but her rise may be flattening out as new polls are ticking Joe up.

The latest CNN poll (9/22) has a new category to me: "Persuadability":
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-iowa-poll-09-22-2019/index.html

We asked likely caucusgoers whether their mind was made up or whether they could be persuaded to change their support another candidate. The minority, 20%, said their mind was made up. The majority, 63%, said they could be persuaded to change their allegiance.

Warren doesn't do anywhere near as well among those who said their mind is made up.

Among those who said their mind was made up, the horserace breakdown was Biden 26%, Sanders 19% and Warren 14%.

Among those who said they could be persuaded to vote for a different candidate, it was Warren 31%, Biden 22% and Sanders 12%.

These numbers shouldn't be too surprising. Even as Biden has dipped since entering the race, he's consistently been in the top tier. His voters seem to be more with him than others.

[UncleNoel]

7. New YouGov Poll has Warren ahead though:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
9/28-10/1

Warren 26
Biden 22
Sanders 14
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 5%
Yang 3%
O'Rourke 3%
Bennet 2%
Gabbard 2%
Booker 2%
Klobuchar 1%
Castro 1%
Steyer 1%
All others 0

See how this plays out I am wondering why some js continue t give Biden double=digit leads and
othrs show Biden and Warren neck to neck What are the polling differences that bring this about?

[Thekaspervote]

12. Wonder if the poll mentioned is now "post ukrainegate." Could explain it, or not

[honest.abe]

14. These opt-in on-line polls can be skewed one direction or the other.

I wouldnt put much faith in any particular poll or result. Need to look a the overall trends.

[Demsrule86]

4. Great news for Biden. Thanks. K&R

[BlueMississippi]

6. k&r nt

[honest.abe]

8. Looks like Joe survived "gaffe-gate" and "Ukraine-gate" and all the other "[ ]-gates".

I think he has solid support in the mid-thirties and that will rise as the lower tier candidates drop out.

[Thekaspervote]

11. This!

[Yoopy]

10. Either Binder or Yougov is doing something wrong

Big difference between the two.

[Thekaspervote]

13. That's my thought as well

The thing is Silver and other pollsters say look for changes following debates, etc.

It’s like the Monmouth poll that came out about a month ago. They admitted they got it wrong. Why the big shift? Just a question... please do not perceive it as an attack.... on anyone!

[highplainsdem]

15. With any small sample, there's a large chance of error. We've seen some state polls lately

that had widely varying results, too.

[oasis]

16. Joe keeps rolling along. Dem voters recognize a winner when they see one.

[ritapria]

17. The Polls are all over the place

Warren ahead by 4 % ( YouGuv) or getting crushed by Biden by a 2-1 Margin (Obama Pollster David Binder) ……..Madness