Warren gets 'dramatic shift' in support from black voters

[BeyondGeography]

One element of Elizabeth Warren’s surge in the polls is likely to strike fear in her top Democratic rivals — her rising support among African-Americans. After struggling to win over black voters in the early stages of the primary, the Massachusetts senator appears to be gaining ground with a demographic that will play a pivotal role in determining the nomination.

A Quinnipiac University national poll last week showed Warren winning 19% of the African-American vote — a nine-point jump over the poll’s August results. In the latest Morning Consult poll, released Wednesday, she’s up by five percentage points with black voters since August...“It’s certainly a dramatic shift that had to be noticed by the Biden campaign — and also Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg,” said Tim Malloy, Qunnipiac’s polling analyst. “Other [candidates] aren’t moving. And if they are, it’s in the wrong direction.”

...“Elizabeth Warren has been speaking directly to a lot of black women’s issues,” said Avis Jones-DeWeever, a lead researcher on last month’s Essence-Black Women’s Roundtable poll, which has Warren in third place behind Biden and Harris. “I’m seeing those direct specifics that [she’s] looking at and focusing on.”

Her April appearance at the She The People forum — the first-ever presidential candidate forum focused on women of color — marked a significant milestone for her campaign, particularly in regards to black women. Following her remarks to a majority-black female audience, the Warren campaign sharpened its messaging to include issues unique to black Americans like maternal mortality rates and racial justice, an approach that some activists say helped alter the perception that Warren was a detached policy wonk.

“In terms of her building trust and authenticity, I believe that was the moment,” said Aimee Allison, founder and CEO of She The People. “The thing about [black women] is that we have networks of networks. When she impressed a room of 2,000 women of color, I could just see months later that she started getting people’s attention.”

Since then, Warren has continued to hold listening sessions with black women’s groups and community activists. Ahead of July’s Netroots Nation conference, one of the largest gatherings of progressive activists, Warren held a roundtable with a group of black organizers who then took to social media to express support for her platform...

More at https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/02/elizabeth-warren-black-voters-support-2020-016649

Warren’s powerful closing remarks at She The People and the crowd response:

Link to tweet

[jcgoldie]

1. This is great news

The more people pay attention, the more Elizabeth will set herself apart from the field.

[Demsrule86]

2. I looked at both polls cited by politico...and the info they said was there wasn't there...

Seriously, I was concerned at first. But both polls showed Biden in first place and nothing that I could see about AA voters.

[thesquanderer]

11. Did you miss the link? The poll info is there.

The politico article refers to, "A Quinnipiac University national poll" and the word "poll" is a hyperlink. Look at that poll, page 5 shows Warren's 19% figure (the column is "Blk&quot . The previous Quinnipiac poll from a month earlier showing her at 10% can be found at https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638

[wysimdnwyg]

12. How DID Politico make this determination?

There is nothing in the poll report that mentions African Americans, Blacks, Minorities, or anything of that nature. Does Politico have access to more detailed information than I could find? Did they extrapolate (based on the total vs White breakdown)? I don't doubt that Warren is making in-roads into the AA vote (likely at the expense of Harris), but that's a significant gain and so far I've seen nothing from the Q poll that suggests a definitive number there at all.

[honest.abe]

13. It's in the report. There is a breakdown by race.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3641

My point in a previous post is that the SC poll showing her in single digits is more relevant as that is the earliest primary with a high number of AA voters plus that is where presumable Warren has spent a great deal of time suggesting her message is not resonating with AA voters who have seen and heard her the most.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=297263

[wysimdnwyg]

14. Aha! Found it.

DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......................................
POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY WHITE......
LIBERAL..... Mod/ COLLEGE DEG
Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No

Biden 25% 13% 19% 31% 23% 26% 23% 40% 20% 27%
Sanders 16 23 19 12 17 16 13 12 8 19
O'Rourke 2 3 3 1 2 2 2 1 1 4
Harris 3 3 4 4 5 2 3 4 4 2
Warren 27 36 30 21 27 26 33 19 37 26



OK, I can't figure out how to format this worth a damn, but I've bolded the relevant bits.

[honest.abe]

3. Recent South Carolina poll (Among African Americans): Biden 46%, Harris 10%, Warren 9%, Sanders 8%

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=296775

[BeyondGeography]

4. SC early poll clutching does not detract from the main point of the article

Warren has been building support with younger AA opinion leaders, particularly women. As she has risen in the polls her numbers with black voters have moved as well. What do you think will happen if she wins at least two of the first three contests? With about five months to go before SC, she is already demonstrating why you shouldn’t be leaning too heavily on those polls.

[honest.abe]

7. Actually the article is clutching polls favorable to Warren and apparently ignoring the one I cited.

The SC poll would be the more relevant one as it is the earliest primary with a significant number of AA voters.

A bigger storyline would be Warren not gaining any ground with AA voters in SC despite spending a great deal of time there.

[DrFunkenstein]

18. The Relevant Quote From Joe Biden

"When Barack clobbered me in the campaign, you know, I had more black support in South Carolina than anybody, including him. I got blown out in Iowa, and all of a sudden everything changed."

It's true that everything can change dramatically after Iowa, even if Biden's claim about South Carolina polls in 2016 couldn't be further from the truth.

Biden did not lead in a single poll conducted, rarely rising beyond low single digits in South Carolina as Hillary Clinton heavily dominated the polls until it all collapsed for her after Obama won Iowa.

[Celerity]

20. 'SC early poll clutching'

well, there is a neologism, lolol

[LanternWaste]

22. Ironic you charge someone else of "poll clutching..."

As (if we use consistency) that is precisely what the OP itself is predicated upon.

[Bradshaw3]

24. The only thing that is consistent

is the unwarrented use of the term ironic. Ironic isn't it?

Ever post anything positive about your candidate? It woule be a refreshing change from the constant unwarrented personal attacks on posters who just favor another candidate.

[BeyondGeography]

25. The accompanying clip shows her connecting with the audience referenced in the article

It's a chance for you to put two-and-two together. You could also click on the twitter thread and see evidence of real enthusiasm for Warren, thereby deepening your understanding of an actual political development.

[Demsrule86]

5. That is not the poll cited in the article... and all other polls don't show that...I will put that

in wishful thinking...still not concerned. Thanks for the link though. I agree with you...if these numbers hold, Biden is the nominee...and there is no Quinnipiac polls that I found that had the information in this OP.

[onetexan]

6. agree. Need AA-targeted polls for EW. The polls cited in article doesn't show any dramatic shift.

[Demsrule86]

9. The media (Politico) putting their thumb on the scale...pretty obvious...This post is

misleading unless the OP can find a Quinnipiac poll that supports the...Warren is surging with AA vote claim. I couldn't.

[Politicub]

17. I don't think anyone can overtake Biden's strong lead in SC.

It’s great to see Warren making inroads nationally, though.

[NYMinute]

8. She is winning over AA supporters of Bernie Sanders

This shift is happening in all segments so not surprising that it is happening in the AA community.

Warren's rise has come primarily at the expense of BS. (Which is also a good thing.)

[Demsrule86]

10. But the poll given in the political article does not support the conclusion...and other polls show

her lagging behind Biden by substantial numbers...

[NYMinute]

15. Biden winning is bad for ratings and readership

They need a horse race so they prop up someone to keep people glued to their TV sets and buy newspapers.

[DrFunkenstein]

19. The Media Wouldn't Love For Biden and Trump to Duke It Out Right Now?

C'mon.

[cwydro]

16. Fantastic!

Recommended!

[Baclava]

23. Excitement!

[blm]

37. Best campaign organization, by far. Great PLUS for general

[loyalsister]

21. Her understanding of racism

her foci, and the language she uses are consistent with modern assessments and awareness. Much moreso than Biden. I expect that is why she has been doing better with younger Black voters. I think her support will grow with increasing dialogue between younger and older voters.

[Faux pas]

26. Kicketty Kickin'

[ecstatic]

27. Not surprising at all. I'm seeing it firsthand.

And it's NOT just millennials and/ or women.

[Gothmog]

29. Warren still has a ways to go in order to threaten Biden's hold

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

28. Black Voters Prefer Establishment Candidates Over Liberal Alternatives

I personally believe that Iowa and New Hampshire are essentially meaningless. These states are 90+% white and do not represent the demographics of the party. The primary process does not really start until South Carolina where the voting population reflects the demographics of the party as a whole.

I found this article from 538 to be very informative https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-do-black-democrats-usually-prefer-establishment-candidates/

So here are a few explanations for why black voters have tended to side with the establishment wing of the Democratic Party. I have tried to order these explanations from strongest to weakest (in my view, at least):

1. Establishment candidates typically have existing ties to the black community
This will sound tautological, but an establishment candidate is … well … established. A candidate who is part of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party likely has fairly strong ties to major constituencies in the party, such as labor unions, women’s rights groups and, of course, black leaders and voters. So when black voters backed Gov. Andrew Cuomo over Cynthia Nixon in New York’s Democratic gubernatorial primary last year, or Andy Beshear over Adam Edelen in Kentucky’s Democratic gubernatorial primary earlier this year, that was not shocking. Not only did Beshear and Cuomo spend years developing their own ties with the black communities in their states, but their fathers did, too. (Steve Beshear was governor of Kentucky, Mario Cuomo the governor of New York.)

Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 similarly entered the primaries with longstanding ties to black voters. It’s worth considering if the story here is not that establishment candidates are smarter in appealing and connecting with black voters during the campaign, compared to anti-establishment candidates. Maybe it’s that the establishment candidate in a race is likely to be the person who enters the campaign with the strongest support among black voters.

2. Black voters are pragmatic
White Democrats are significantly more likely than black Democrats to describe themselves as liberal. Perhaps that’s the simple explanation for why most black voters eschew more liberal candidates. But scholars of black voters argue that the liberal-moderate-conservative framework does not apply well to predicting the actual policy positions and voting behavior of black Americans.

I agree with the conclusion of this article

But even if Sanders or Warren gets more support among black voters in 2020 than the Vermont senator did in 2016, I tend to think Biden will remain fairly popular with black voters overall — because of his ties to Obama and other black leaders and the perception that he can defeat Trump. So there is a very real possibility that black voters will play the same role in the 2020 presidential primary that they have played in Democratic politics over much of the last four years: blocking the path of the liberal left as it attempts to dethrone the party’s establishment.

[BeyondGeography]

30. What about number three?

3. Black leaders are part of the establishment and support its candidates

Two problems with that for Biden supporters. Political establishments are increasingly unpopular in this country on both sides of the aisle because they have failed to improve systemic problems like income and wealth inequality and rising health care, housing and education costs. Also, the establishment favorite this time around is much weaker than usual.

One could argue that those two points are related.

[Gothmog]

33. The leadership of the Democratic party reflects demographics of the Democratic Party

In the real world, African American votes make up a significant portion of the base of the party. It was African American voters who elected Doug Jones and who accounted for most of the success of the Democratic victories in the mid terms. It is a good thing that the leadership of the party reflects the base of the party. Let me post the section of the article that you are referring to.

3. Black leaders are part of the establishment and support its candidates
This is a slightly different point than No. 1, above. It’s not just that Sanders in 2016 and Warren in 2020 entered those races with weaker connections to black leaders than Clinton or Biden. During the primary process, black leaders weighed in — on the side of the establishment candidate.

In February 2016, fairly early in the primary season, the Congressional Black Caucus’s PAC formally endorsed Clinton. Eight black caucus members have endorsed Biden this year. None are behind Warren or Sanders. You might say that politicians just like to endorse front-runners, so they can be on the side of the winner. Not quite. Ten black caucus members have backed Harris, another candidate whose politics are best described as center-left establishment. (More on her in a bit.) And Biden and Harris are also getting the vast majority of endorsements from other high-profile black figures, such as state representatives and prominent mayors.

Why are elected black officials more likely to side with establishment candidates? Many of these candidates have long courted black community leaders, including elected officials, as I mentioned in No. 1. But I also think it’s the case that many black Democratic elites spent much of the last several decades courting the establishment, and are thus tied to it. You see this on Capitol Hill, where black House members are among the strongest defenders of Speaker Nancy Pelosi in her internal battles with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and the progressive wing of the House. Black elites also express the same pragmatism that black voters do and are wary of pushing forward candidates they view as unable to win a general election.

It’s not clear that black voters follow high-profile endorsers. That said, the lack of high-profile black support for Sanders, Warren and other anti-establishment Democrats creates a self-reinforcing problem. They don’t have much support among black voters or black elites, so the press covers their lack of black support. A candidate defined by the press as lacking black support is going to have a hard time getting black voters to support her or black elites to endorse her.

I was a delegate to the Philadelphia convention which means that I have been very active in the party for many many years. I believe in working inside the party and I support the party and its leadership. The leadership of the party should reflect the base of the party. There is nothing wrong with this in my opinion.

[DrFunkenstein]

31. Massachusetts Liberal Sen. John Kerry Got 88% of the Black Vote

Higher than anyone who was not Barack Obama, including Bill and Hillary Clinton.

[ecstatic]

34. Wow @ the last line: "blocking the path of the liberal left"

At the end of the day, we want the most qualified candidate. It's definitely not about "blocking the liberal left." If it's between a liberal CLOWN and a well qualified liberal candidate (who happens to be more centrist), we're going with the qualified, center-left candidate.

[LAS14]

32. YAYYYY! Elizabeth!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (BE SURE TO PLAY THE VIDEO) nt

[BeyondGeography]

35. Thank you...I saw that when it came out

and have watched with amusement here as poster after poster insisted Warren couldn’t and wouldn’t connect with black voters. It’s just one video but it shows she has the goods.

[BannonsLiver]

36. This is excellent news for Democrats

And the hard working staff of the Warren campaign. Whoever our nominee is we need them to have broad appeal. I think Warren is an excellent candidate who if nominated would have that kind of appeal.

[LAS14]

38. I just watched this again to show hubby. Elizabeth is great. But the crowd is the news! nt

[sarah92]

39. indeed! she inspires so much diversity - woman, people of color, minorities. Go cougars!

[BlueWI]

40. Congrats, Senator Warren!

She's the most focused and energetic candidate in the race, and polling trends reflect this.

[Gothmog]

41. Here are some interesting polling results

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

42. Poll: Biden holds 24-point lead over Democratic field among black voters

Last edited Mon Oct 7, 2019, 12:48 PM - Edit history (1)

Link to tweet

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the top pick among black voters, with a 24 point lead over his closest competitor in the 2020 Democratic primary field, according to a new poll.

A Hill-HarrisX survey found that 36 percent of registered black voters said they want Biden to be the party's nominee, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) with 12 percent support.

No other candidate received double-digit support. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) tied for third place, garnering 8 percent each.

[Gothmog]

43. Warren is at 3% in South Carolina

Link to tweet

[BeyondGeography]

44. Biden's support among blacks nationally continues to fade while Warren's rises

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

45. Joe Biden is at 61% with African American voters

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

46. The most important number in the CNN 2020 poll isn't the one you think it is

You can not win the Democratic nomination without significant African American voter support

Link to tweet

Biden is ahead because he is consolidating his support among non-white voters, a key voting bloc among whom he already had a very clear edge over his primary rivals.
Here's how the numbers by race break out in the new CNN poll:
Whites

Biden 27%
Warren 23%
Sanders 15%

Non-Whites

Biden 42%
Sanders 16%
Warren 13%

That's striking stuff. And while Biden has long led among non-white voters, his support has surged since earlier this fall when he was taking just 28% of their vote in a hypothetical Democratic primary ballot.
Why is his support among non-white voters -- and the suggestion that support is increasing as actual votes near -- so important for Biden and his chances? Because non-whites have been the decisive voting bloc in each of the recent contested Democratic presidential primaries. In 2008, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton because of his massive edge over her among black voters. Eight years later, Clinton beat Sanders because she crushed him among African Americans and Hispanics.

[Gothmog]

47. Black vote in SC in new Qpac poll:

Link to tweet

[BeyondGeography]

48. So do you think Hinch will be banned or just suspended for a year?

[Gothmog]

49. Biden does beast amongAfrican AMERICAN voters

Link to tweet

[BeyondGeography]

50. I see the Astros were wearing buzzer bandages too now

They should just shut that team down:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/astros-sign-stealing-scandal-mlb-execs-reportedly-think-buzzing-bandages-may-have-been-used-to-relay-pitches/

[boomer_wv]

51. Using a single poll to support this...

is something only someone who doesn't understand how polling works, wants to push an agenda, or both would do.

Consider this poll. It's a great pollster and has a decent sample size at a little over 500 for the democratic primary questions. However, when you start trying to use it to show a jump in black support, you stretch the ability of the poll. This is because the n of the sub sample of black voters is going to be considerably smaller than the overall n. If you have 500 voters, you may only have 100 black participant, perhaps even lower. Given than, the MoE of this subgroup will be much larger than the overall MoE. So, a poll showing 19% support and a poll showing 9% support might not be different, it could just be noise from the sample. You need to see this movement over multiple polls to start thinking about it as real.

Keep in mind there are polls from time to time that show Trump with 20% with blacks, which is demonstrably wrong. It is just a product of small samples and weighting.

[pattyloutwo]

52. Biden more AA support than Booker?

How can that be? Just the Obama connection? What about the work Booker has done and his record? Hard to understand. And Warren’s policies are much more progressive for African Americans than Biden’s policies....And, I’m still mad about Anita Hill and Biden’s support of Clarence Thomas. We’re still dealing with the ramifications of that confirmation.

[Gothmog]

53. Biden has 154 endorsements from current or former black or Hispanic elected officials.

Link to tweet

[BeyondGeography]

54. Uh oh

MLB widens investigation of Astros' conduct to last 3 seasons

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28131590/mlb-widens-investigation-astros-conduct-last-3-seasons%3fplatform=amp

[Gothmog]

55. Even when I represented the Astros under prior ownership, I did not care about baseball.

The fact that you think that I care about this amuse me.

[BeyondGeography]

57. This is about so much more than baseball

[Gothmog]

56. This is interesting

Link to tweet

[Gothmog]

59. Biden's support from African American voters has increased

Link to tweet

?s=20

[BeyondGeography]

60. Here's an example of a proper Thanksgiving Day post

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212736662

Have a good one.

[Gothmog]

61. African American vote share in this South Carolina @YouGov poll:

Link to tweet

[madville]

62. Dramatic shift downward

Warren has fallen from that high of 19% down to 6% in the latest version of that same poll.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3650