Nate Silver: Media hyping of particular early states is a tell as to which candidate it prefers

[highplainsdem]

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

I've said it before, but the extent to which the media hypes up the importance of various early states is often as a tell as to which candidate it's implicitly rooting for.



SC polls (good for Biden) and NV polls (relatively good for Bernie) don't get nearly as much attention as Iowa and NH polls (usually good for Warren). And sure, IA and NH will go first and affect the results in NV/SC. But NV/SC reflect the demographics of the party a lot better.

[BeyondGeography]

1. As is grumping about them

[Demsrule86]

3. There is no question Sen. Warren is hyped...momentum...but honestly I don't think she does...

I would bet Biden will be the nominee despite the media's best efforts.

[Demsrule86]

2. So true...and it looks like Iowa and New Hampshire will be a wash...no one ahead in delegates...

And then Biden cleans up in the Atlantic states, Southern states and the rust belt where the voters look more like the modern Democratic Party. I would not be surprised if Biden has an insurmountable lead on Super Tuesday.

[Cha]

4. Good for Nate making note of this..

I thought I saw an OP around here that said "Nate Silver is a joke".. they must have not liked what he said about their candidate?

Thank you for his, highplains

[thesquanderer]

13. For as long as I can remember, Iowa and NH are ALWAYS the ones hyped early.

I think Nate is too tree (poll) focussed to see that it's the same forest it always is, and is not any different this year for having different candidates. The public will not be as interested in states 3 and 4 until after 1 and 2 happen. Not because 1 and 2 will influence 3 and 4 as he alludes to, but simply because they come first. Main interest is Iowa caucus. Secondary interest is NH which is second but the first actual primary.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

5. Is this a conspiracy theory/media bashing?

Asking for a friend...

[SharonClark]

6. Another Silver fail.

Iowa and NH are getting attention because they are FIRST. After that the other states will get the coverage they deserve. It has nothing to do with who the 'media' prefers.

[sharedvalues]

10. Yes he's a terrible political analyst

Think back over all the election cycles you remember.

I remember Iowa/NH ALWAYS being the discussed states with SC getting rare mention (when things like the GWB racist attack on McCain happened, for example.)

[TwilightZone]

17. He addressed that in the post.

"SC polls (good for Biden) and NV polls (relatively good for Bernie) don't get nearly as much attention as Iowa and NH polls (usually good for Warren). And sure, IA and NH will go first and affect the results in NV/SC. But NV/SC reflect the demographics of the party a lot better."

Link to tweet

[sharedvalues]

7. Nate is a terrible pundit

And should go back to statistics

[boomer_wv]

8. Rooting?

I domt think the media is rooting for a candidate l....they are rooting for a story. It's boring to say that Biden is the frontrunner with a built in advantage after NH.....so they play up the horse race and closer states.

[ritapria]

12. With all due respect

I believe it is clear the media is all in for Liz ….

[blm]

15. Except when they weren't.

Like saying for months that she couldn’t get her campaign off the ground, and that her campaign couldn’t break free of Trump’s Pocahontas attack.

That she’s too wonkish.

That this country still won’t elect a woman for president.

I think people have short memories.

[Tarheel_Dem]

9. Thanks Nate. n/t

[Mr.Bill]

11. What the media does more and more each election

is to sell the idea that it's a close race. That's what generates ratings and that is not what they care about most, it's all they care about. The closer to the election we get, the closer they will call it. In the final days the words "dead heat" will get thrown around.

In the primaries, it's just a matter of which two or three candidates are in this "dead heat".

It's so predictable it's become boring.

[blm]

14. Uh, as long as I've been alive Iowa and NH have ALWAYS been the early stories.

I think it’s odd that Silver is consistently taking potshots at Warren.

[Bradshaw3]

16. Nate is showing which candidate he prefers

Did he just start studying the nominating process? NH and Iowa have always been given more prominence. For reference see: EVERY primary campaign EVER held in the past half-century or longer.

[rpannier]

18. Agreed

This is nothing new
Carter was basically a nobody governor from Georgia when he won Iowa and suddenly he was on the front cover of everything
Silver is whining

[ritapria]

19. The Objective Numbers Guy prefers Joe

Nate should come clean ...He is a Joe B Man ...Stop Bid'en time and fess up Nate …..

[caraher]

20. The media have always hyped Iowa and New Hampshire

I don't think there's much to be read into that.

I agree with Nate that those two states are not representative of the party or the nation. But I don't agree that it's a sign of media bias in favor of a candidate when media outlets do the same lazy horserace reporting they do every four years with heavy emphasis on the very first primary and caucuses.

Nate has zero evidence for his claim. It's baseless speculation on his part.

[Gothmog]

21. Iowa and New Hampshire are both 90+% white states who do not reflect demographics of the party

I am not sure why these two states matter