Nixon ran against a moderate/liberal Democrat in 1968 and a progressive in 1972

[highplainsdem]

Let's not forget which one he did better against.


Humphrey lost to Nixon, but by only about half a million popular votes. Electoral vote count was 301 to 191.


McGovern lost the popular vote by about 18 MILLION votes. And the electoral vote count was 520 to 17.


If you're going to look back to 1968 and try suggesting that a more moderate, establishment Democrat won't win elections because Nixon beat Humphrey, you should also remember what happened to a progressive senator running against Nixon four years later.

[Dennis Donovan]

1. ...and Nixon did that (1972; McGovern) thru *serious* skulduggery.

...it turned into Watergate.

[Hoyt]

2. Had forgotten how badly McGovern was trounced.

[highplainsdem]

5. I think we all wanted to forget it.

[peggysue2]

10. LOL!!

So right, highplainsdem. McGovern's loss was a political debacle for the Democratic Party.

[The Mouth]

12. The convention and the campaign were horrible

The 1972 convention was, if I'm not mistaken the reason for us having 'super delegates', many many ballots, the appearance of a fractured party beholden to its most extreme elements, basic negative publicity instead of what should be a big bounce.

I worked on McGovern's campaign, at age 11, making coffee and doing other stuff, as did my mom. But it is even used as a case study, I understand, in how NOT to run a campaign.
sure Nixon's plumbers and dirty tricks played a part, but any campaign against an incumbent president is hard.

[JI7]

19. there was one poster who actually claimed McGovern , Mondale, Dukakis lost because they were not

liberal enough and they were too moderate/centrist.

this person does not post now but the whole argument was always just stupid.

[Cha]

3. lol@OP trying to drag on Biden with

Humphrey history.

Thank you, highplains

[highplainsdem]

6. You're very welcome, Cha!

[rampartc]

4. 1968 should be studied very carefully

we had a very serious policy difference on war. 2 great progressive leaders were assassinated that year. Nixon fgs was considered the lesser evil.

[George II]

7. Two entirely different eras about 50 years apart.

[Terry_M]

27. Ya that's where I am

what are we supposed to make of an election that happened 50 years ago in isolation? Like am I really supposed to draw strong conclusions here from it? Cause I don't quite see how.

[IronLionZion]

8. And there was no way in hell Trump could ever win

yet here we are.

And there were DUers promising us that Obama couldn't win because Americans were just too racist. And we saw what happened. There was no way an Arkansas governor could defeat a sitting president who just won a war, but Bill Clinton totally did.

Why do Repukes get more votes by going hard right but Dems are always too scared to go left? Have any Trumpsters in your social media? They are constantly posting memes claiming Biden is a racist left-wing socialist who puts his hands on little girls. The other side is completely insane.

[Buzz cook]

9. Humphrey was Identified as pro-war.

Nixon ran on the idea that he would end the war.
Nixon also made back room deals to derail the Paris peace talks. That was seen as a failure of the Johnson/Humphrey administration. In fact it was treason and Nixon should have been arrested as soon as it was discovered. That may have been the start of letting republicans get away with criminal acts.

George McGovern was a war hero, Nixon was a desk jockey in the Navy. Yet McGovern was described as weak and Nixon as strong, McGo9vern as unpatriotic and Nixon as patriotic.
That was echoed in the 2000 election.

The 72 election was also the first big defection in the "Solid South" as Nixon's Southern strategy began to bear fruit and the assassination attempt on George Wallace caused disaffection in segregationist democrats.

By this time the anti-war movement was going strong and so was the backlash against war protesters. African American's were protesting, sometimes violently, and the media were being stenographers for police and government describing the incidents.

Union organizations left the democratic side at wholesale rates. George Meany the head of the AFL-CIO backed Nixon over McGovern, though there was no formal endorsement.

Nixon was a relatively popular president, tight up till he became a reviled pariah that had to resign.

McGovern faced a perfect storm that the Democratic part still has not recovered from.

Comparing 72 to 2020 is not valid.

Problems in 2020 are different than 72. Now we can break them down to, the media, voter suppression, and racism.

While the American media is the worst in the world, they are not as bad as they have been. A Clinton is not in the race and the media is not invested in attacking the democrats as much as there were when Bill, Al, or Hillary were candidates. There are elements in the media that are pro democrat now. That is in part thanks to Barack Obama.
Democrats still should fight media narratives, but it is a bit easier now.

Voter suppression is the second largest problem democrats have to face. With the partial end of the felon purge in Florida we can hope that other states will follow suit. But every state that uses that tactic needs serious legal challenges.

In spite of the increase in volume from the racist right, America is becoming a more pluralistic nation and the power of appealing to racial animus is aiming at a smaller target.

Oh and whoever gets the nomination they won't have to worry about a popular opponent.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

33. What Buzz Cook said

Humphrey was seen as the Hawk - continuing LBJs Asia policy. Nixon had "a secret plan to end the war."

McGovern was probably the wrong guy at the wrong time. Very articulate, and with a war record he should have played up more on the campaign trail. In a perfect world, '72 should have been Bobby Kennedy's reelection campaign; in a different world, Ted doesn't drive of a bridge at Chappie and kill someone. But in November of '72, the economy was humming, white America was enraged with the SCOTUS, and 'Nam was seen as winding down.

[DrFunkenstein]

11. Who Did McCain Run Against in 2008?

Biden probably knows the answer to that one.

[PatrickforO]

13. That's not apples to apples. That was a whole different time.

It is not useful to choose a candidate out of fear of what happened to a milquetoast in 1972. You cannot have it both ways. You say we should not criticize Biden for something he said 25 years ago, and then tell us that we have to run a centrist because of a progressive candidate crashed and burned against a pretty popular incumbent fifty years ago!

Watergate was only just being reported at the time Nixon won in his 1972 landslide, and Nixon was quite popular. Trump, on the other hand, isn't. Everyone knows he's a dirtbag.

Nixon had succeeded in dividing the traditionally Democratic union members against the progressive youth of the time, and McGovern was advocating amnesty for draft dodgers, and the same kind of guaranteed basic income Yang is today. In addition, McGovern was reportedly 'too decent' to run a hardball presidential campaign against a guy like Nixon.

Warren is decent, but she's also an articulate, energetic, charismatic, scrappy, back-at-cha candidate who will create the passion and the vision we need to win.

I'm just not seeing much in the way of vision from Biden, though if he is our candidate he will enjoy my wholehearted support - just because we've got to get rid of Trump. But I firmly do not believe Biden is our best choice.

[elocs]

14. McGovern was my first presidential vote at age 20 and I don't want to go through that debacle again.

We naively thought that the nation believed exactly as we did and it didn't matter who we ran against Nixon because we couldn't imagine how McGovern could lose.
America is just not a far left nation that is ready to embrace socialist idea in a single election.

In this election I would take a candidate who has an excellent chance to beat Trump as opposed to one who make lofty promises that have little chance of becoming law because if Trump is not defeated none of those promise will mean anything anyways.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Nixon's approval rating was over sixty percent in November of 1972.

If Trump's approval rating is over sixty percent in November of 2020 he's likely winning in a landslide too, his opponent notwithstanding.

[crazytown]

17. Trump's approval started underwater, and has stayed underwater.

Disapproval (538 average) has never been less that 51% for his entire time as president - despite a very strong economy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. With today's demographics George McGovern wouldn't be George McGovern

And Walter Mondale wouldn't be Walter Mondale.

Also the comparison between McGovern and HHH is misleading. George Wallace who was ideologically closer to Nixon than HHH siphoned off a lot of Nixon's vote in 1968. There was no viable right wing third party in 1972 and Nixon was the beneficiary.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

34. Very true

People forget how enraged whites were over school desegregation and bussing, and how that really drove suburban demographics and laid the foundation for Nixon and Reagan.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. The electorate was also about 90% white. It's now around 70% white.

[Uncle Joe]

21. Thanks for adding some context DemocratSinceBirth.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. More context in the post above you.

I'm not calling anybody out but I know sophistry when I see it.

[NurseJackie]

16. Excellent reminder. Thank you!

[crazytown]

18. "Let's not forget which one he did better against"

What a ridiculous argument.


Mondale was a moderate/liberal Democrat, how did he do?

[DrFunkenstein]

22. Would He Have Beaten Progressive Bobby Kennedy?

Every candidate is different and every election is a completely different context.

I know Dems try to win the last election, but this is the first time I've seen them trying to win elections 50 years ago.

What about the election of Woodrow Wilson or James Polk?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. In 68 or 72? RMN has a better chance in the latter.

[DrFunkenstein]

29. Nixon May Have Had a "Secret Plan" For Exiting Vietnam in '68

But Kennedy would have beat him, even after losing the Dixiecrats.

[qazplm135]

31. I mean clearly Polk is proof that

we have to nominate Andrew Yang.

Why?

Let me walk you through my twenty step analysis...

[LincolnRossiter]

25. Great point, highplains.

I get the temptation by more progressive supporters to seize on Trump’s weakness to get a real liberal in office. But this is no time for risks. Trump has shown himself to be politically more durable than his numbers suggest.

[DrFunkenstein]

35. What Durability? All He's Done is Lost The House

If we had a Dem prez with these numbers, we'd be sweating bullets.

[BlueMississippi]

26. 1968 was a different year

1. LBJ was unpopular - so being his VP was a liability. In 2020, Obama is extremely popular so being his VP is a major asset.
2. Vietnam war was the major issue then. Humphrey didn't promise to end it. In 2020, getting rid of Trump is the major issue. Biden has promised to do it.

Comparing Humphrey with Biden was not only disingenuous, it was downright Machiavellian.

[Fiendish Thingy]

28. How much did Mondale lose by?

Or Dukakis? Or Kerry?

[qazplm135]

30. this is a poor argument on multiple levels

1. It's neither 68 or 72, Trump isn't Nixon, Biden isn't Humphrey and no one is McGovern

2. Nixon started his second term at 68 percent approval in Gallup. It was just over 60 percent on election day in 72, which was I believe actually higher than when he started his presidency (59 in Jan 69).

3. Responding to a poor argument with a poor argument does nothing. The arguments about Humphreys and Biden and whatnot are also poor arguments. So no, no one should look back to Humphrey nor should they look back to McGovern for any real lessons about 2016.

I am tired of centrists arguing that somehow the nation is center right and that the WORST thing we can do is nominate a progressive because they will never win. Obama was portrayed as a communist and won twice. Hillary ran on the most progressive platform ever and won the popular vote by 3 million people. Trump fluked his way into an 80K votes across three states EC win. That's all it was. It was not "proof" that we need a centrist anymore than Humphrey is "proof" that we need a progressive or McGovern is proof of anything.

So all of these attempts at historical "analysis" whether done by centrists or progressives to "prove" anything need to go back into the weak sauce can from whence they came.

[Bradshaw3]

32. No comparison to 2020 whatsoever

The reasons why are myriad but since the OP doesn't bother to offer why this election and elections half a century ago are comparable (probably because there aren't any) then I won't bother either.

[Tiggeroshii]

36. Yet it was a leftist (fdr)who had the most successful tenure

And was the longest serving in the history of our country...


Not sure if ideology ever has much to do with electability as charisma, likability and the ability to connect with people.