Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBiden's Electability Advantage Will Be Hard to Shake Among Risk-Averse Democrats
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The most obvious is Bidens consistent strength in head-to-head polls against Trump. You can remind people all day long that these are unreliable indicators of how a general-election campaign will actually play out, but they wont be able to ignore them. And Bidens advantage here is significant. There is not a single poll in the RealClearPolitics database of 2020 trial heats between Biden and Trump in which Biden does not lead. His current lead in RCPs polling averages is an enormous 11.5 percent (Sanderss is 7.0 percent, and Warrens is 5.2 percent, but both have trailed Trump in some surveys).
A second factor making Biden Mr. Electable is the widespread belief among pundits and voters alike that, all things being equal, proximity to the political center is a general-election asset. The more we approach a three-candidate nominating contest in which Bidens only real challenge comes from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, the more Bidens relative moderation will become evident. That may hurt him with some primary voters, but it could at the same time enhance his perceived electability.
A third factor some analysts focus on is the practical ability to win voters the party lost in 2016 either to Trump or to third parties or to the living-room couch. Theres at best limited evidence that Biden is more popular than other Democrats in the much-chewed-over white working-class demographic (especially Obama-Trump voters). But he certainly talks about his focus on these voters a lot, which enhances the perception they are his people. And he certainly has conspicuous strength among African-American voters, whose fall-off in turnout was a big problem for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden does not look like a good bet to energize younger voters, but Trump might well do that for him...
Risk-averse is probably the most important term to remember in assessing Democratic voters heading toward 2020. They still dont entirely understand how Hillary Clinton managed to lose to Donald Trump in 2016, but they arent inclined to take anything for granted this time around. And that will make it difficult for candidates other than Biden to convince Democrats their other qualities are worth taking a bit of a risk on. Sure, Biden could in theory blow himself up with some high-profile gaffe that undermines the very premise of his candidacy. But thats not within anyone elses control.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,323 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)of ageism on an across the boards basis. Do we now take older African Americans as un-woke, when it is they who soldiered in the front lines during the civil rights movement?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,323 posts)seen so many posts lately trying to smear Joe Biden with age.. not just mention it.
This kind of talk doesn't help their candidates, afaic.
Good point about the older African Americans who are for Joe Biden. I do trust their experience and knowledge in choosing their candidate for our Nominee.
I would never talk about anyone's age if I didn't want him/her for our Candidate.. and I never have.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)As with anybody else who becomes the nominee.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,778 posts)Such a positive upbeat man... love the smile...always a smile
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Ninga
(8,275 posts)There is nearly four months until Iowa caucus kicks off the primaries.
Steady as she goes.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided