Nate Silver: Final Thoughts

[brooklynite]

OK here’s my wrap: If you were really excited — like we were! — about seeing all the major Democrats on together on stage for the first time, that debate felt like a little bit of a letdown.

Whether it’s a Big 3, a Big 4, or something else, I don’t know that any of the front-runners had a particularly strong night. As was the pattern in the previous debate, Biden started out fairly strong and got worse as the night went along, and the evening will probably most be remembered for his rambling answer to a moderator’s question about the legacy of slavery. Warren was … fine/good? But more evasive than usual, and she disappeared for long stretches of the evening. Bernie literally didn’t sound well and I don’t think Democrats will like his answer about the filibuster. Harris just hasn’t been very sharp after a very good first debate, and she’s developed a habit of falling into a languid speaking style and circuitous answers that sometimes land somewhere and sometimes don’t.

Several of the second- and third-tier candidates performed pretty well, by contrast. O’Rourke had some very sharp moments. It was almost certainly Klobuchar’s best debate. Booker is possibly the most consistent debater in the field. I’m not sure Castro’s not-so-thinly veiled attack on Biden’s age will go over well, but who knows … and at least he’s drawing attention to himself. Same with Yang.

So, we’ll see. This is one of those cases where my default is not to expect much change, but it’s a fairly weak prior and I’ll want to see the polling and the post-debate spin. Speaking of which, Ipsos will be re-polling our panel of Democratic voters to see how their opinions of the candidates changed. We’ll let you know as soon as that interactive is updated.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/abc-news-democratic-debate/

[thesquanderer]

1. Interesting point about Harris' "languid speaking style"

As the night wore on, I started to get the sense that she sounded like she was a bit tipsy.

She's also big on evasive answers.

[Green Line]

2. I had the same feeling, she did sound tipsy