Donald Trump trails 4 top Democrats, does not top 40% in poll

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

President Donald Trump trails four would-be 2020 Democratic challengers and gets no more than 40% support in trial matchups, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday.

"It (40%) is the ceiling of support for Trump no matter the candidate: It hovers near his job approval rating which has stayed in a tight range since being elected," Mary Snow, polling analyst with Quinnipiac, said in a statement.

Ex-Vice President Joe Biden has the biggest lead, 54-38% over Trump. Sen. Bernie Sanders is not far behind at 53-39%, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren up 52-40% on the president. South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg leads Trump 49-40%.

The poll found 38% of Americans approve the job being done by the 45th president, with 59% disapproving. A second poll, by USA Today and Suffolk University, pegged Trump's base of support at 39%.

https://www.seattlepi.com/local/politics/article/Trump-trails-four-top-Democrats-does-not-top-40-14393905.php?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailynewsletterspi&utm_term=spi

[OAITW r.2.0]

1. By this time next year, I predict the ceiling will be 33%.

A point here a point there.....I also predict he will have 100% approval and votes of whatever is left of the GOP,

[captain queeg]

2. What gets me is the common refrain from many of them is the good economy

He inherited an improving economy, artificially gave a bounce to the richest, but has guaranteed a crash and many years to recover by his and the repugs actions. As many have pointed out they will be glad when the crash comes so they can say we can’t afford social security and Medicare. I’d love to see huges taxes leveled on the rich at that point, and massive cuts to “defense” spending. What is presented as defense spending is defense for big business interests, not national security. Do we need 12 nuclear carriers to defend our borders?

[Kaleva]

3. Trump trails top 5 Dems. Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris and Buttigieg

"If the 2020 presidential election were held today, 54 percent of registered voters say that they would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, while only 38 percent would vote for President Trump. Matchups against other top Democrats show:

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders topping Trump 53 - 39 percent;
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren ahead of Trump 52 - 40 percent;
California Sen. Kamala Harris beating Trump 51 - 40 percent;
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 49 percent to Trump's 40 percent. "

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638

[Princetonian]

4. This poll is +/- 4.6%, N is 648. The Emerson poll is much better quality: +/- 2.5%, N is 1468.

Quinnipiac polling was done Aug 21-26 while the Emerson poll was done in a tighter, more recent time frame between Aug 24-26. As for the Quinnipiac MOE:

"The survey includes 648 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage point..."

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638

[Kaleva]

5. 538 gives a slightly higher rating to Quinnipiac

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

To say Emerson is much better doesn't jive.

[Princetonian]

8. Quinnipiac has inferior MOE and N values relative to Emerson.

Quinnipiac polling was done Aug 21-26 while the Emerson poll was done in a tighter, more recent time frame between Aug 24-26. As for the Quinnipiac MOE:

"The survey includes 648 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage point..."

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638

[crazytown]

6. You only get those numbers when you distribute the don't knows.

The basis for that is a false assumption.

[Princetonian]

7. I disagree. The +/- 2.5% Emerson poll is a far more accurate poll than Quinnipiac w/2x N value.

The Emerson poll methodology is better too:

The data was weighted by age, region, income, and education based on 2016 turnout modeling.

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/08/27/august-national-poll-sanders-closing-gap-with-biden-mayor-pete-fades/

Quinnipiac's polling was done Aug 21-26 while the Emerson poll was done in a tighter, more recent time frame between Aug 24-26. As for the Quinnipiac MOE:

"The survey includes 648 Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage point..."

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638