Who will be the Not Biden candidate in March?

[Funtatlaguy]

I think that after the first four primaries that it will be very clear what the race looks like.
I think by then (unless Bidenmakes some really egregious errors) that we will have narrowed it down to a two person race.
Biden vs somebody else.
Odds are that person will be Sanders, Warren, or Harris.
Now, here’s the rub.
Will the other two drop out before SuperTuesday in March?
If not, that really helps Biden.

[Voltaire2]

1. The not Biden polling is about 2x Biden.

Unless Biden wins via winner take all primaries, as things now stand Not Biden could decide the outcome.

[Fresh_Start]

2. Bernie will not drop out...

I hope Liz Warren is one of the top 2. But I wouldn't be heartbroken if Kamala Harris is one of the top 2 either.

[LonePirate]

7. He is weak in IA but strong in NH. He is weak in SC but strong in NV. That is why he will stay in.

[comradebillyboy]

15. But he still won't be the nominee. He has done precisely

nothing to expand his base.

[OhZone]

3. Not Biden -

Does not poll well against Rump.

[at140]

5. you still believe in polls?

after 2016 when polls assured us Hillary had 97.9% chance of winning?
forget polls and just be sure to vote!

[LonePirate]

8. Polls do not measure the EC. They measure the popular vote which she won handily.

[Funtatlaguy]

11. I would have loved to have seen some more state by state

Polling in the last few weeks before November 2016.
I’m not 100% convinced that there wasn’t hanky panky in the three large Democratic cities of Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia.
Was there any Election Day exit polling in those cities or in their 3 states.?
I never saw any.

[at140]

18. There were tons of state polls on RCP

Real Clear Politics shows statewide polls in addition to national polls.
don't remember Trump leading in any polls in PA & MI.

[OhZone]

10. "Believe in" -

Not like a religious thing.

No.

Not like a religious thing.

But they are interesting snapshots.

And I know they are imperfect.

But they can give an idea of what things look like at the moment.

As far as Clinton goes, if the electoral college didn't exist, that predictor was pretty accurate for the popular vote.

Now, you have to look at averages and trends. Nate Silver did notice a trend toward Trump at the last moment, if you remember.

Also, the prediction markets were much more accurate again in 2018!!

So, yeah, I do not completely discount polls.

But at the same time, I do know that things change.

However, for the moment, NOTBIDEN does not poll as well against Rump as BIDEN does.

[elocs]

16. Belief in the certainty of polls is what too many on the Left had in WI, MI, and PA.

They were convinced that Clinton would win so that freed them either not to vote for either her or Trump because they bought the Big Lie that both were the same (propaganda is how the Russians really swayed the election) or it made it ok for them to vote 3rd party like for Jill Stein who here in Wisconsin received more votes than Trump's margin of victory.

Until the horses leave the starting gate, none of them are in the lead. It's just the odds before the race showing who is the likely winner and then down the line.

Yeah, forget the polls, just vote.

[at140]

17. ---/this/---

[still_one]

4. Biden, Warren, maybe Harris. Sanders is losing support to Warren, and his base is not expanding

[Sneederbunk]

6. Harris continues to fade. Will not be a factor.

[Bettie]

13. Most of the Harris supporters I've talked to

have Warren as their second choice.

A lot of the Warren supporters I've talked to have Harris as their second choice.

I've talked to a lot of people this summer, as we pulled our county Dem party float in parades.

No Biden organizer has even shown up at any of the parades. Every other major campaign has at least had a staffer or two show up at some event.

At the last parade, Sestack was walking with us. He's really likable, talked with my husband for a while.

[Gothmog]

9. I really like Harris

The choice between Biden and Harris would be a win/win senecio

[Funtatlaguy]

12. I really think they'd be a dynamite ticket.

Some think their first debate busing discussion would negate the idea.
I don’t think so.
Tickets have had much worse bad blood and been successful, Reagan/Bush for example.

[comradebillyboy]

14. Warren most likely given the current situation...

[mtnsnake]

19. Come March, I don't think Biden will be in it. Nor do I think Bernie will be in the running by then

I think it will be a two or three person race in March with Warren most likely the front runner. Plus a couple of other candidates, possibly Harris, Buttigieg, or maybe even someone like Castro, Steyer, or Bennet by that time.