Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBiden Still Holds Solid Lead Nationally
Biden Still Holds Solid Lead Nationally
August 15, 2019 at 6:10 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 286 Comments
https://politicalwire.com/2019/08/15/biden-still-holds-solid-lead-nationally/
"SNIP.....
A new Fox News Poll finds Joe Biden continues to lead the Democratic presidential race with 31%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 20%, Bernie Sanders at 10%, and Kamala Harris at 8%.
Everyone of the four frontrunners beats President Trump in general election match ups.
The leaders are followed by Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, and Andrew Yang stand at 3% apiece, and Amy Klobuchar and Beto ORourke are each at 2%.
.....SNIP"
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,338 posts)"Biden Still Holds Lead Nationally" when Warren climbs to within one per cent of his lead?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
calguy
(5,338 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,338 posts)It's also a fact. Buckle up!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
onetexan
(13,071 posts)Also note Warren is only coming close to Joe in..oh maybe 1 poll? Overall he still has a hefty lead. And no we Biden supporters are not gloating. It's a fact.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,338 posts)She's been red hot and on the rise. Joe is stagnant. I'm sure we'll exchange notes again over the months to come as your "hefty" withers away.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,809 posts)1. She still polls very poorly with the AA voting block. Last Quinnipiac poll shows her at 8%.. cant win on that- primary or the general.
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637 dated 8/6
SC, the bellwether state for the AA vote is some better for her, but still low with mr. Biden holding a 19 pt lead over warren
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457373-biden-tops-democratic-field-by-19-points-in-new-south-carolina-poll dated 8/14
2. Many assume that when candidates begin to dropout that warren or Harris will gain significantly. Except the polls dont show that at all. Morning consult polls show that second choice preferences will not eat into his lead
Morning Consult's polling of voters' 2nd choices indicates no one can catch Biden by other
candidates dropping out or fading, simply because he does better or almost as well as any other candidate when voters are asked who their second choice would be.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/ dated 8/12
Sanders supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Biden 30%, Warren 27%, Harris 7%
Warren supporters, when asked for their 2nd choice:
Sanders 23%, Harris 20%, Biden 19%
Harris supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 28%, Biden 23%, Sanders 12%
Buttigieg supporters, asked for their 2nd choice:
Warren 22%, Biden 20%, Harris 17%
So, if any of these candidates dropped out or drastically lost support, apparently Biden would pick up approximately as many of their supporters as his nearest rivals would.
And in case anyone's wondering about Biden supporters' 2nd choice:
Sanders 26%, Warren 19%, Harris 13%
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,338 posts)but we'll see where things stand in October. By then 8% could be 20%. She's on a roll and is only 7 percentage points out in the hallowed Biden state of Pennsylvania. No poll was indicating that sort of surge for Warren a month ago.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,809 posts)And second choices arent going to bring about a seismic shift in voter preferences
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,799 posts)I wish Warren well.. what I don't like are supporters of other Democratic Candidates insulting Biden Supporters.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,809 posts)Acknowledge such. Otherwise back it up with facts... preferably reliable links.
I really should thank highplainsdem for the morning consult post. I just bookmarked it and now passing it on!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,799 posts)the best.. I love all our Biden supporters and Allies(those who support other candidates but stand up for Biden, too).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,809 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,799 posts)I love Biden Supporters and our Allies who stand up for Biden even if they're supporting someone else as first choice.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
onetexan
(13,071 posts)Given at this point it remains to be seen who will win the nomination. Not eating our own is the way to go, &may the best man/woman win. End goal is to kick this Idiot out of WH
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emulatorloo
(44,210 posts)Biden and Warren are my top two. Mayor Pete number three.
Poll doesnt say anything about Warren being behind Biden by 1%.
As my mom used to say, dont count your chickens before they are hatched.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
True Dough
(17,338 posts)I'll see you again when that 1% becomes reality. I'll wager it's by October.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emulatorloo
(44,210 posts)Ill be happy w either Warren or Biden as our nominee.
My mom was great and very smart. Too bad you didnt know her.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
True Dough
(17,338 posts)Warren is a juggernaut, and she's forcefully making a strong case for herself and her policies on the campaign trail. She has momentum.
The best Biden can do is a step back followed by a step forward. He's running in place.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,338 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)I get it though... as long as you believe it, that's good enough.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,338 posts)Allegation: a claim or assertion that someone has done something illegal or wrong.
See you in October!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)allegation noun
al·le·ga·tion | ˌa-li-ˈgā-shən
Definition of allegation
1 : the act of alleging something
2 : a positive assertion especially of misconduct Some former colleagues have made serious allegations against him. specifically : a statement by a party to a legal action of what the party undertakes to prove
3 : an assertion unsupported and by implication regarded as unsupportable
allegation noun
al·le·ga·tion | ˌa-lə-ˈgā-shən
Legal Definition of allegation
1 : the act of alleging
2a : a statement not yet proven
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Bradshaw3
(7,533 posts)Can't make a post without taking a unfounded personal shot at another poster, can you?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,799 posts)is Undecided from Canada.
And, you have no idea what Biden supporters are about with your gratuitously rude post.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,809 posts)Lots of rather baseless assumptions goin round
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
applegrove
(118,842 posts)candidates. I try and post a little on everyone.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,799 posts)Biden over others.
Mahalo, apple!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
applegrove
(118,842 posts)in the way Bernie explains things beyond simple yelling that has already changed the hearts of many. Kamala is electric one on one. Warren has the plans to build a much better country and she makes it sound to easy. Buttiggieg has the politics down to a vision.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,123 posts)The gaffes by Joe just keep on comin... go Elizabeth and Bernie!!
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!!
Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)It's a tried and true method to deny math and sampling when they don't align with our narratives.
Wishful thinking, indeed.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BannonsLiver
(16,508 posts)Might be a good time to think about jumping ship. I know its fun to amplify MSM/GOP talking points on Biden for someone who hates him, but wont it be awkward if he is the nominee?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)to lose states...the national polls inflate her numbers...where as the opposite is true for Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,338 posts)The same points are made over and over. A number of you keep claiming only Joe can take Pennsylvania and yet Warren is now polling within 7 percentage points of Biden.
Sleep with one eye open...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(297,799 posts)insulting Biden supporters.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)I have seen other polls that clearly show that but without AA support she is going no where nor is your candidate.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Dough
(17,338 posts)That's today's date. We'll see where things shake out in a few months.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
myohmy2
(3,182 posts)...I'm not sure if I trust them...
...it's still very early, but that's not to take anything away from Joe...
...Joe's a nice guy...
...he's always struck me as the kind of guy who'd drive Meals On Wheels to Seniors...
...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Fiendish Thingy
(15,685 posts)So much for "invincible inevitability".
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Skya Rhen
(2,701 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Fiendish Thingy
(15,685 posts)The inevitability may not be so inevitable- if this were the general, would you be comfortable with such a MOE?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)except for those who called other candidates "anointed."
(being 'comfortable' with statistical sampling is not the purpose of statistical sampling... just in case you're unaware of that bit of relevance)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #6)
InAbLuEsTaTe This message was self-deleted by its author.
democratisphere
(17,235 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,589 posts)That SB cop shooting looks to have been a really bad inflection point for his campaign so far. He is going to need a massive debate performance to recover. It appears that a lot of his support has went to Warren, if you add up the net gains and losses of all between when Pete was at 8% and now the present (3%). I cannot believe he is now tied with Yang. SMDH
Warren cannot win if she does not improve her percentage of support from African American voters. That has crushed Pete (he is at basically zero in this poll.) Ironically, Beto is also at 3% now and black voters are his strongest demo (6%.)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,386 posts)Sticking with the known quantity. The majority see how it plays out and then make their decision. If the known quantity falters his support among black voters will too. People are making a mistake if they think Warren or anyone for that matter will not appeal to black voters based simply on the numbers right now.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,715 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(49,428 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
elocs
(22,614 posts)before they have left the starting gate just because he was given the best odds of winning.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,123 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Warren is in fine form but she's still in Bernie's lane, with Bernie's baggage, notably Medicare for All and her commitment to abolishing workplace health plans.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
elocs
(22,614 posts)inasmuch as they know it is unlikely to ever become law yet they hold out hope to people that it could become law soon.
They never give a realistic explanation of how Medicare for All could be passed into law.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Pretending MFA is a road-ready alternative to the ACA only helps Trumpsters kill the ACA. When Warren said at the last debate that she didn't know why anyone would run for president who didn't want to dream, the crowd cheered, but Delaney was right. And my question would be, if you're going to run for president, why not build on what's already been accomplished instead of reinventing the wheel?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden