** NEW ** HarrisX Poll - Biden 30%, Sanders 17%, Warren 9%, Harris 6%

[Skya Rhen]

Poll taken: Aug 8th to 11th
1,350 Registered Voters

https://scottrasmussen.com/3-day-dems-voting-for-trends/

[highplainsdem]

1. Interesting. Biden's gained several points over the last 5 days. That's probably

partly the effect of his brilliant speech last Wednesday, but I'm guessing the attacks on him for his "gaffes" are also backfiring.

Thanks for posting this!

[GeorgeGist]

2. That's a Rasmussen Poll NOT Harris

[Skya Rhen]

4. FiveThirtyEight says it's HarrisX.

[highplainsdem]

5. Rasmussen Reports, which Scott Rasmussen sold years ago, is the pro-Trump poll. This is SR,

a new collaboration with Harris X, which FiveThirdtyEight lists as Harris X:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

See the line there for the Aug. 8-11 Demcoratic primary poll.

[highplainsdem]

7. Here -- see this from Harris X about their partnership:

https://blog.harrisx.com/blog/2018/08/harrisx-partners-with-veteran-pollster-scott-rasmussen-on-new-daily-poll-tracking-american-political-sentiment

[ancianita]

11. Good to know, thanks.

[ucrdem]

3. This is about where things stood just before the first debate.

Which is about where I'm guessing they're likely to stay, give or take 5 points here or there.

[highplainsdem]

8. This is about where they've been all year, except for Biden getting a bump after his announcement,

when he apparently cut into Sanders' support quite a bit for weeks.

[ucrdem]

10. Oh that's right, back when Bernie was the frontrunner

even though he wasn't. Ah the good old days!

[highplainsdem]

14. If you look at the graph on the RCP page

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

you can reset the dates to go all the way back to December 9, 2018, through August 10,2019.

Biden leads the entire time, most of that time with about 30% of the vote.

The main difference is that Warren has been gaining, mostly at Sanders's expense.

But Sanders isn't likely to allow that to continue much longer.

[ucrdem]

21. Yes he does.

Amazing how consistent this race has been.

[Kahuna7]

27. Bernie was never the front runner. Even before Biden announced, there..

was only one Emerson poll that showed Bernie slightly ahead of Biden.

[George II]

9. I haven't seen the debate plunge in ANY of these polls.

[crazytown]

12. Re Elizabeth Warren - bunk

Looking through the RCP listings of polls since May, Harris X is the only poll which has shown EW at less than double digits. Current RCP average for Warren is 18.6%.

[bluewater]

16. the HarrisX poll is a poll of the "Harris Panel"

The "Harris Panel" is the same pool of people they survey from over and over and over again online.

That is why it's results are always so similar and why they can pump out a Harris X poll 5 times a week.

It's not a random poll of the general public.

MorningConsult, Reuters/Ipsos and The Economist/YouGov polls all do something similar, when I fairly recently found out how these pollsters actually conduct their surveys, I stopped posting about them.

If anyone believes that Warren is actually at 9% support because of the scads of Harris X polls that insist so, well, go right on thinking that. Eventually people will actually cast votes and we'll see how accurate that was.

[pnwmom]

18. Thanks. And that's why it is so unreliable, according to 538. n/t

[Thekaspervote]

13. The longer the polls continue to show similar results, unless there's some earth shifting "thing"

The harder it will be to move the dial.

[Thekaspervote]

15. Here's 538 summation of all the polls. Warren's biggest problem is her inability to gain traction

With AA voting block. Last week’s Quinnipiac has her at 8%... just can win on that


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

[Skya Rhen]

17. So true!

[pnwmom]

19. HarrisX is a C+ poll according to 538.

Its results are somewhat more accurate than flipping a coin.

[AlexSFCA]

20. IMO, Biden's gaffes don't matter

it shows he is authentic not always perfect and scripted. In fact I think the gaffes help him to connect with older voters. He does’t repeat exact same things over and over and over like BS does non stop. It’s interesting to see that Biden’s lead is higher than BS and EW combined. I think Biden/Beto ticket would be unstoppable even as we all wish VP would be a woman. Gun control and healthcare are winning issues.

[oldsoftie]

22. No on Beto. I'd rather have Pete, but He'll go with a woman i think

Beto would be his own gaffe machine IMO

[SunSeeker]

26. Yep, he should go with a woman or person of color. Harris fits the bill nicely. nt

[AlexSFCA]

30. only if it increases his chances to win

As much as I adore Harris, I don’t see her brining more votes in general election as Biden is far more popular among black voters than she is. Beto would energize young voters and republican women with degree, independent voters, ‘moderate’ voters and, of course, the progressive vote that Biden may lack.

[SunSeeker]

31. There's also talk of Stacey Abrams for the slot.

So you would suggest Beto? Why do you suppose he has not taken off in the primary race,?

[Cosmocat]

23. IMO, the country seems intent on replacing the current insane meglomaniac old white POTUS

with a decent, normal old white guy.

I am like most in wanting to have a sharper, younger more progressive candidate (or EW) but the country has been drug SO FAR in one direction it just seems the lifeline is a normal, kind older white guy.

[Thekaspervote]

29. I luv Beto!! And agree that would be a winning combination

[OnlinePoker]

24. It's really time for the bottom candidates to drop out

Not only do they take financial donations which might be better used by more viable candidates, but it also clouds the issues with so many competing voices trying to get their messages heard. Better for them to throw their support behind candidates that share a similar set of policies and campaign for someone who is more likely to go the distance.

[Cha]

25. Thanks, Skya!

It seems some people don't like this poll.

Oh well!

[Peacetrain]

28. Made my day!!

thanks Skya