Warren emerges as Biden's most dangerous rival

[left-of-center2012]

Sen. Elizabeth Warren is now the most serious rival to former Vice President Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2020. Several recent polls, both nationwide and in Iowa, have shown the Massachusetts senator in second place to Biden. Her performances at televised debates have won widespread praise. And her fundraising has been robust. She raised $19 million in the second quarter.

But if Warren is the one major candidate who is unquestionably on an upward trajectory, there are still significant questions about how she gets past Biden, who continues to lead by a sizable margin in most polls.

Among progressives, there are also worries about a split in the left-wing vote between Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt). Even if Warren emerges as the clear standard-bearer of the left in the months ahead, Sanders is not going anywhere. Several polls in recent days have suggested that Warren is moving past Sanders, who has so far been unable to recapture the magic that made him a tough challenger to eventual nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016.

A Monmouth University poll in Iowa released Thursday showed Warren with 19 percent support to Sanders’s 9 percent. Biden was leading the field with 28 percent. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) was third with 11 percent support. One national poll from The Economist and YouGov saw Warren trailing Biden by 6 points (16 percent to 22 percent) with Sanders in third on 13 percent. A second national poll, from Quinnipiac University, had Warren 7 points clear of Sanders — 21 percent to his 14 percent — though she still trailed Biden by 11 points.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/456862-the-memo-warren-emerges-as-bidens-most-dangerous-rival

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I thought it was Harris?

[left-of-center2012]

2. Harris has been down in the polls

Several posts here in DU citing articles say she dropped more after the last debate.

Note Harris' ratings in the opening post.

[Joe941]

4. That was last week.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Oh. Got it.

[left-of-center2012]

7. I must have missed it

Is Harris now surging in the polls?



Everything I've read online has her down.

[tonedevil]

10. Nothing to see here...

you keep thinking like you think.

[rurallib]

3. dangerous is an odd word in that context methinks.

I know it was The Hill that used the word.
"Dangerous" would usually indicate some possible physical harm as if the two were in a battle.
I would think "formidable" would make more sense.

I only say this because I was having a discussion with someone this morning (oddly a Warren staffer) about words that the corporate media will be using on Warren if she is the nominee.
In this context the implication is that the Democratic Party - or at least Warren and Biden - are in some kind of battle, thus Dems are splitting apart. Or so I see it.

Some words evoke a lot of meaning.

If the headline was "Warren emerges as Biden's most formidable rival" it is a whole different meaning to me.

[left-of-center2012]

5. Googling 'dangerous' finds ...

adjective: dangerous

able or likely to cause harm or injury.
"a dangerous animal"

likely to cause problems or to have adverse consequences.
"it is dangerous to underestimate an enemy"

[rurallib]

8. ok - my point is that it sort of implies physical harm

as if the two candidates are ready to duke it out.
So the Hill kind of paints a picture that seems much more vivid than what is actually taking place - a civilized race for the party nomination.

Over the years I have just gotten kind of sensitive about what words corporate media uses when they talk about Democrats and what kind they use when talking about Republicans. It is often very different words.

[left-of-center2012]

11. "it sort of implies physical harm"

I guess it's one's interpretation.

[cwydro]

17. I think it would be dangerous for him to underestimate her.

She is indeed a formidable opponent.

[Peacetrain]

20. Sen Warren has the left side of the party pretty much locked.. she

took huge numbers away from Sen Sanders.. and my guess.. is that those are the two who will come roaring out of Iowa.. VP Biden and Sen Warren..

[Thekaspervote]

9. Biden maintains a double digit lead over warren 32% to 21% Quinnipiac 8/6

She will have to do a lot lot better than she currently is with AA voters
Biden 47%
Warren 8%

Rest of the numbers here

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637

[peggysue2]

18. Agreed!

That's Warren's real barrier at the moment. If she can't bring those numbers up with the AA electorate she simply can't win.

[Sapient Donkey]

21. What is drawing African American voters toward Biden?

Any thoughts? Mostly name recognition? The belief he is the best chance to beat Trump? It's not policy is it? I mean, I may be slow and uninformed, but to me most the serious candidates don't seem all that different. You have cherry coke and cherry pepsi, might have some cherry sprite in there too... In the end it all kinda tastes similar and does the same thing. Well, then there is that weird kumis stuff... *cough* Williamson *cough*

[JI7]

12. the biggest problem for Warren i have seen is she doesn't have much support among minorities

Harris was seen as a threat becsuse it was assumed if she did well she would get take away minority voters from Biden.

[Thekaspervote]

13. Yup... polling does not give her enough of an edge... yet anyway to be a true contender

[BlueMTexpat]

16. The crux of the issue is in

the "yet anyway" of your statement.

Biden and Warren have not yet shared a debate stage.

I think that there will be some perceptible movement when they do, and that Elizabeth will be the beneficiary of that movement.

But that's JMO.

[chimpymustgo]

14. This is a HUGE problem for Warren. If Biden and Harris split the black vote

the party could be in trouble. But that could be the ticket - though I would much prefer to see Kamala on top!

[5starlib]

15. Warren can't beat Biden...

Unless she can beat him with black voters, which ain't happening. Harris has the better profile as she could conceivably win the black vote, but she's is lagging in polls.

[Blue_true]

19. This is what I think.

Say every thing remains the same as now, Warren doing great in debates. It then comes down to the Iowa Caucus. If Biden wins cleanly there, it likely all over. If Warren beat him and follow up by winning or being close in NH, it's a new race Biden v Warren, and in that race, my money is on Warren.

The fly in the ointment is Sanders. If he sees that he does not have a chance, will he drop out and endorse Warren, my guess is he will not, helping Biden win the nomination.