Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumWashington Post-Analysis: Is Iowa no longer feelin' the Bern?
If sanders fails to win any delegates in Iowa, he may be finished
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Sanders did fare significantly better in a third recent Iowa poll, though, taking 19 percent in a CBS News/YouGov survey a few weeks ago, and his national polling has also been relatively stable after dropping earlier in the summer. Monmouths poll also includes a slightly older sample than showed up for the 2016 caucuses, which might depress the numbers of a candidate like Sanders, who does so well with younger voters. So its worth waiting to see if more quality Iowa polling shows a similar decline. (Its also possible Iowa voters are tuning in earlier than other voters, given they hold the first contest, and dont mirror the nation as a whole.)
But if the new poll is close to accurate, its not a great omen. As with the Suffolk University poll a month ago that also put Sanders at 9 percent, this one shows relatively few Iowa voters have him as either their first or second choice. In this poll, another 8 percent name Sanders as their second choice, meaning hes the first or second choice of just 17 percent of voters. Thats compared to 40 percent for Biden and 38 percent for Warren.
As I argued last month, this is especially ominous for Sanders given he took nearly 50 percent of the vote in the state in 2016. He was never going to get that much of the vote again, given this is a crowded field instead of a two-candidate field, but hed probably hope to at least be a leading option for lots of voters early in the process. In both this new poll and the Suffolk poll, hes either tied or trailing South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg on first- and second-choice voters.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Skittles
(153,174 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Skittles
(153,174 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
2020Junker
(99 posts)Iowa and New Hampshire are ideal environments for his campaign and political message. If he cannot find traction there, South Carolina isn't going to treat him any more kindly.
Should he stumble, the common sense thing for him to do would be to withdraw and endorse Warren - she being closest to him in ideology.
I generally like Bernie. But if Iowa and New Hampshire don't work for him, I don't see a national campaign working anywhere else. Primaries are oftentimes about momentum, real and perceived. He cannot come out of those two states with no momentum and remain viable.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Funtatlaguy
(10,885 posts)endorse Warren unless his numbers look really good going into New Hampshire.
I think he would prefer she win than Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
2020Junker
(99 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)I've never understood what goes on in the head of someone who thinks I'm little different from Republican voters, but he really, really has always despised Democrats. When someone tells us who they are and shows us who they are, for over 40 years, we should probably believe him.
I can imagine him officially endorsing Establishment Warren but in reality not coordinating with her and using her name to run his own political game. His VT voters seemingly like him calling himself I-Sanders but voting as a +1 to the Democratic caucus.
Also easy to imagine that if he doesn't get enough delegates to be a presence at the convention, which seems increasingly likely, he might refuse to endorse anyone and take his revolution and residual following to the political streets. (His current senate terms ends in 2024, when he'll be 82 or 83, might not worry about reelection.)
"I am Not Now, Nor Have I Ever Been, a Liberal Democrat." ~ Bernie Sanders
I know that, Senator Sanders. Because I am.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MrsCoffee
(5,803 posts)As an Independent.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,481 posts)I was a delegate to the Philadelphia convention and saw how the process works. One key item is that under the rules, a candidate cannot be put into nomination without 300 delegates. https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2020-Call-for-Convention-WITH-Attachments-2.26.19.pdf
States in the following manner:
a. Requests to nominate a presidential candidate shall be in writing and shall have affixed thereto the written approval of the proposed nominee and the name of the individuals who shall be recognized to make the nominating and seconding speeches on behalf of a presidential candidate and shall be delivered to the Convention Secretary at a location as specified by the Secretary no later than 6:00 p.m. of the day preceding the day designated for the commencement of presidential nominations.
b. Each such request must be accompanied by a petition indicating support for the proposed nominee signed by delegates representing not less than 300 or more than 600 delegate votes, not more than 50 of which may come from one (1) delegation. A delegate may not sign more than one (1) nominating petition for president and for vice president. Pledged and automatic delegates may sign the petition.
I signed the petition for Clinton in 2016 to put her into nomination but we have over 170 Clinton supporters in the Texas delegation.
If sanders is frozen out of enough states due to the 15% rule and remaining non-Biden delegates are split among several candidates, there is a chance that sanders may not reach 300 threshold
Link to tweet
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thanks, Goth
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
elocs
(22,596 posts)who is proud to be a member of the Democratic Party rather than one using the party for a presidential run, again.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dalton99a
(81,565 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
betsuni
(25,588 posts)Oh sorry, habit.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Quixote1818
(28,955 posts)According to polling I have seen. So these numbers could shift extremely fast if Biden loses favor and they switch to Sanders.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/442738-poll-almost-one-third-of-biden-supporters-pick-sanders-as-their
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,237 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,496 posts)no matter how much they wish.
And, I know of no Biden supports who have BS even on their radar.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,237 posts)I've never met one either. That's not to say they don't exist, but I don't know 'em.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
peggysue2
(10,836 posts)I mean I've been reading this 1st and 2nd business for weeks now as if Biden and Sanders are interchangeable. To me, it makes no sense because I don't know any Biden supporters who would willingly jump on Bernie's bandwagon. And I have to believe the reverse is also true. The two men are completely different politically. And yet these polls keep indicating this shifting contest between the two.
Makes. No. Sense.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to Gothmog (Original post)
Post removed
betsuni
(25,588 posts)ridiculous of dream worlds, Sanders could not have possibly won the nomination after May 3 -- at that point, he needed 984 more pledged delegates, but there were only 933 available in the remaining contests. ... Sanders supporters were tricked into believing a false narrative. Once only one candidate can win the nomination, of course the DNC gets to work on that person's behalf."
http://www.newsweek.com/myths-cost-democrats-presidential-election-521044
Conspiracy theory.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Go Vols
(5,902 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
betsuni
(25,588 posts)Maybe it was a similar situation as Al Franken found himself in.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(94,679 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_Tires
(55,445 posts)then he had a golden chance (since his campaign never really ended after '16) to get a huge, insurmountable lead on the rest of the field and he fucked that up as well...
It's tragic because if he had people who were at least half smart managing his strategy he'd be president now, but the fact that he hired the same old ideological nutbars who see Dems as the real enemy and not the GOP means nobody has learned shit...
He's done. The best he could possibly hope for now is a Veep slot.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thirties Child
(543 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden