Biden holds two-to-one lead over Sanders in post-debate poll (Harvard CAPS/Harris poll)

[highplainsdem]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/455979-biden-holds-two-to-one-lead-over-sanders-in-post-debate-poll

Former Vice President Joe Biden has a 2-to-1 lead nationally over the next closest Democratic presidential contender after the second round of debates, according to the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll.

The new survey finds Biden with 34 percent support among Democrats, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 17 percent.

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) is in third place with 9 percent support, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) at 8 percent, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 4 percent, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke at 3 percent and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) at 2 percent.

-snip-

A plurality of Democrats, 47 percent, said they want to nominate a candidate with the strongest chance of winning. Only 12 percent said their first preference is a candidate who shares their positions, while 36 percent said they value both traits equally.

Biden also leads when voters are asked to name the top three candidates that best share their values, with 46 percent saying Biden, followed by Sanders at 34 percent, Warren at 27 and Harris at 24.

[JI7]

1. are you sure ? there is a thread about Sanders massive lead from coast to coast

[Cha]

6. Wow.. I guess I missed that one!

[katmondoo]

14. I don't think Mr Anger will keep his lead. We need some niceness to counteract the hateful rhetoric

of the past three years.

[NurseJackie]

24. I saw that one... ROFL!

[onetexan]

41. Thats a lead in campaign donations, not the polls

I recall Bernie was ahead in single small donations in 2016 as well. He didnt win the nomination.

[George II]

54. When someone encourages his follower to make many small contributions rather than one...

...large contribution, he's going to lead in contributions.

He's got one person who has contributed more than 800 times since January! Small contributions, sure, but in aggregate they constitute "big money" - in fact, that person has given more than the allowed limit of $2800.

[SouthernProgressive]

42. That meant to read...

From Coaster to Coaster. It was Nina Turner and her crayons studying her campaign map on the kitchen counter with two coaster holding it down.

[George II]

53. That was with respect to "contributors", not polls. And much of it was speculative anyway.

[Still In Wisconsin]

2. I like everyone in that list except for Senator BS. Can't understand why Mayor Pete

isn't higher though. I think he's done really, really well!

[NurseJackie]

25. Many people think the same as you.

Myself included.

[busterbrown]

40. like a lot of our good candidates..

They are setting themselves up for a long time... Young ones, bright, articulate, Progressive.. and IMO...they just have to be patient...Their day will come.. perhaps not as President, but man they're gonna be a huge part of the transformation of our Country..

[bluewater]

3. "As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval."

"The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval."

So it's not a truly random poll?

It's a "representative online sample" of a preselected "Harris Panel" of voters?

[highplainsdem]

7. I don't have any more info on the poll than what's in that article, but it says they'll have more

info online later this week.

[BannonsLiver]

9. It doesn't fit that poster's narrative so it must be crap.

That’s the takeaway.

[bluewater]

11. "is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics."

[OilemFirchen]

30. ...

YouGov specialises in market research through online methods. The company's methodology involves obtaining responses from an invited group of Internet users, and then weighting these responses in line with demographic information.

New Economist/YouGov poll has Biden at +5 lead.
Poll: Disappointed if they become the Nominee

[bluewater]

32. Excellent point. These pollsters "invite", "sample" and "weigh"

Thanks for the YouGov poll info. Its seems they and Harris and MorningConsult are actually polling the same people over and over and over.

Then they "sample" and "weight" their selected "panels" apparently.

This explains WHY Harris and MorningConsult surveys are consistently the same on the high side for Biden, and YouGov consistently on the low side.

They are all polling their own little selected subset of voters over and over and over.

Thanks again, I will be giving less credence to all three pollsters from now on.

[bluewater]

13. "it does not report a probability confidence interval."

That's from the pollster, not me.

[bluewater]

22. The "Harris Panel" is "sampled" and "weighted"

Who is the "Harris Panel" that is being "sampled" and "weighted"?

The same people being polled over and over and over?

Is that why this pollster consistently returns such similar results poll after poll after poll?

[DeminPennswoods]

35. What is the "Harris Panel"?

A quick search turned up references to the Harris Poll Online being a poll that gives rewards to people who sign up to participate.

From the Harris Poll website:

The Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll is conducted by The Harris Poll online within the United States every monthly and captures the responses of over 2,000 registered voters. The results reflect a nationally representative sample. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, marital status, household size, income, employment, and education where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

The Co-Directors of the Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll are:

Stephen D. Ansolabehere – Professor of Government & Director, Center for American Political Studies, Harvard University

Mark J. Penn – Visiting Lecturer, Harvard University & Managing Partner, The Stagwell Group

[bluewater]

36. Thanks! So it IS a preselected group of people that they "survey" from over and over.

Apparently the YouGov and MorningConsult surveys do something similar.

They "survey" their own little subset of voters, for example the Harris Panel, over and over and over.

This explains the systemic bias that seems to occur in their surveys.

Harris and MorningConsult consistently return very similar results week after week with Biden being in the 30-33% support range while YouGov consistently returns very similar results week after week with Biden being 6-8% lower than the other two pollsters.

[DeminPennswoods]

52. Imho, the big problem with these polls that

track individuals over time is that a participant who has an opinion that's an "outlier" can create odd results after all the weighting, etc, is done. IIRC, in 2016, the Morning Consult poll happened to get a youngish AfAm participant who was a Trump supporter end he ended up "representing" that entire (AfAm age group, ethniciity, gender) demographic set when he was probably not really representative of it.

But, I agree that opinions are fairly set right now on Dem primary candidates.

[SouthernProgressive]

43. If polls don't matter...

How can they be unskewed?

[bluewater]

44. Its a good poll of the "Harris Panel"

Who ever those handful of preselected voters are.

Sampling the same pool of voters over and over, in this case the Harris Panel, introduces a systemic bias in the poll's results that a truly random poll would just not have.

[SouthernProgressive]

45. I'm not sure who they are.

And you did nothing to enlighten me.

I’m still unsure why you are attempting to discredit something you find to be meaningless.

You seem to be swinging wildly at something you don’t see.

[bluewater]

46. That the poll is a survey of the "Harris Panel"and not the general population is eye opening

Most people think every poll is a random survey of voters in the general population.

I know it was eye opening for me to find out that several online polls often quoted on DU actually "survey"" a sample of the same small preselected pool of voters over and over and over.

"I’m still unsure why you are attempting to discredit something you find to be meaningless."

um, because it's better to know what a pollster is actually doing? And it's really about being aware how a systemic bias can creep into a polls results. Surveying the same pool of voters over and over again introduces a systemic bais that truly random polls do not have.



The truth will set us free, right?

[SouthernProgressive]

47. Why do you think it is "eye opening?"

You keep saying that but add little to no context.

So, how does Harris conduct it’s polls in a manner in which you take issue. Again, you keep taking issue without actually taking issue. It’s kind of fun to watch.

[bluewater]

49. Re-read the post you just responded to, perhaps?

[Cha]

4. Thanks, highplainsdem..

I would think this poll is significant after the last debate.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

5. So the progressive candidates, together, have a big lead over the moderate candidate in 1st place.

That's not surprising!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[highplainsdem]

10. ???????????????????

[Thekaspervote]

15. That is one way of looking at it

But, Sanders supporters polled show they choose Biden as their 2nd choice. Warren supporters are almost split between Harris and Biden

[highplainsdem]

20. And in this poll Sanders and Warren together have 25% compared to 34% for Biden.

[bluewater]

27. This sampled and weighted poll of the "Harris Panel" ?

What is the "Harris Panel" that this poll is taking a "representative sample" of and then "weighting for known demographics"?

The same pool of people they poll over and over and over?

From the poll itself:

"The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval."

[BannonsLiver]

17. True to form.

[Gothmog]

33. Only if you ignore the 15% rule

It does not matter what the other progressive candidates do if they are under 15% https://www.politicususa.com/2019/08/02/joe-biden-is-rolling-as-no-one-gains-ground-after-second-debate.html

A looming problem for candidates is the new delegation allocation rules require that only candidates getting 15% of the vote or more in each primary and caucus are awarded delegates. This means that every candidate outside Biden who isn’t at less than 15% in any early state is flirting with not picking up delegates.

There is a sizable segment of Democrats who like and want Joe Biden as the party’s nominee. The possibility is growing that Biden catches fire in the early voting states and rolls to the nomination. The other candidates the nomination may have to beat Biden early or not at all, as these debates aren’t moving the needle and shifting voters away from the former vice president.

[NBachers]

39. SPEW!!!

"So the number of Americans NOT polled greatly outnumber the total of those who were."

[George II]

55. 34 is greater than 17 plus 8.

[stonecutter357]

8. let's go Joe !

[Princetonian]

12. Biden holds almost a four-to-one lead over Harris who has support in the single digits.

I guess smearing Joe for having "worked with segregationists" didn't work.

[Thekaspervote]

16. No it didn't work...

[NurseJackie]

18. Good! It's increasingly clear that BS will not be our party's nominee!

No traction.

[LAS14]

19. I think this demonstrates that Bernie ran a national campaign in 2016...

... and built up his donor base then.

[NurseJackie]

26. Yep! That small detail is conveniently omitted.

All these boasts are superficial and hollow... it's the sign of a campaign that knows it's in trouble.

[Gothmog]

21. None of the other presidential candidates gained any ground on Joe Biden

Link to tweet

[Perseus]

23. Oh, the mysteries of life, if that is true

I wonder who is being polled, and where? Has anyone here ever participated in a poll?

[LincolnRossiter]

28. Biden's a damn strong candidate.

Hope he takes nothing for granted and keeps it up through the first contests!

[Hortensis]

29. Effectively almost all will vote for the candidate with the strongest

chance of winning, 47 +36. That's because all the possible frontrunners as this develops are overall very similar on positions. Thus almost all of those who say they value both traits equally will find the most compelling differences in perceived electability.

"47 percent, said they want to nominate a candidate with the strongest chance of winning. Only 12 percent said their first preference is a candidate who shares their positions, while 36 percent said they value both traits equally."

Interestingly, that 12% for positions only must include Sanders' devoted following, the larger poll's counterpart to his 8% here, but also including some others for whom their own positions rule. So what is his floor? Other polls I saw the other day were ranging from lows of 11 and 13 to a pair of 20s.

[Gothmog]

31. Joe Biden Is the Big Winner of the Democrats' Leftward Shift

Harris, sanders and Warren can go after the extreme left of the party but Biden will be the nominee if he wins the middle of the party which comprises the bulk of the party

Link to tweet

In the 2016 race, voters who identified as “very liberal” were the only ideological group in which Sanders ran evenly with Hillary Clinton. But they represented only about one-fourth of all primary voters, according to a cumulative analysis of 2016 exit polls by CNN. Voters who identified as “somewhat liberal” (just over one-third) or “moderate and conservative” (about two-fifths) cast a larger share of the vote. Likewise, voters over age 45 cast fully 60 percent of all primary votes in 2016, compared with about one-sixth for voters under 30.

On paper, Biden could face competition for moderate and older voters from the other centrists in the field. But none of them have yet consolidated much support. And while some of the moderate candidates performed well over the two nights—particularly Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado and Montana Governor Steve Bullock—none of them had a breakout moment likely to dramatically improve their position. Meanwhile, several of the relative moderates, including Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, delivered low-wattage performances that may further hurt their standing in the polls.....

A recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll underscores the challenge Democrats may face selling many of those ideas. In that survey, 54 percent of Americans opposed eliminating private insurance; 62 percent opposed covering the undocumented in any national health-care system; and 66 percent opposed decriminalizing unauthorized border crossings.

Even among Democrats who identified as moderate or conservative, nearly half opposed covering the undocumented, and a clear majority opposed decriminalizing border crossings, according to detailed results provided to The Atlantic by Marist. A solid majority of those more moderate Democrats also rejected ending the death penalty, which every major Democratic contender has now embraced. In the survey, a national health-care system that eliminates private insurance did register support from a clear majority of both liberal Democrats and moderates. But, for Democrats primarily concerned about electability, the overall public’s opposition to that idea may still make them hesitant about supporting a candidate who advocates for it.

[Thekaspervote]

34. Great post! Thx

[Cha]

51. Wow.. I love that tweet pic! Joe Biden Is the Big Winner of the Democrats' Leftward Shift

Link to tweet

In a Quinnipiac University poll released this week, 51 percent of likely Democratic-primary voters nationwide said Biden presented the party’s best chance against Trump—Sanders (at 10 percent) and Warren and Harris (both at 8 percent) all distantly trailed. Biden held a comfortable lead on that question over his rivals, even among voters younger than 50, but his advantage swelled among older Democrats: He is leading the next closest candidate by a factor of 10 among those 65 and older. Among Democrats who identified as moderate to conservative, more than six times as many picked Biden as the strongest candidate compared with any other contender. Among black voters, he led by a factor of 9, drawing 57 percent on that question, compared with Harris’s 6 percent.

Mahalo, Goth

[Tiggeroshii]

37. Sanders holds individual donor lead in virtually all of the continental US

I think that will at off more than being ahead in early polls.... just imho

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

56. Right on the money Tigger... as usual!!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[Scurrilous]

38. K&R

[crazytown]

50. If you believe Warren is polling 8 ...

if not, take this one with salt, pepper and ketchup