Morning Consult POST-DEBATE poll: Biden 32%, Sanders 18%, Warren 15%, Harris 10%,

[highplainsdem]

Buttigieg 6%, Booker 3%


https://morningconsult.com/2019/08/02/detroit-debates-deliver-meager-returns-for-bidens-challengers/

Detroit Debates Deliver Meager Returns for Biden’s Challengers




Standing in contrast to the first set of Democratic debates, this week’s matchups did little to immediately impact potential Democratic primary voters’ preferences for president.

Thirty-two percent of Democratic primary voters said they still want to see former Vice President Joe Biden at the top of the party’s 2020 ticket, according to new Morning Consult polling conducted after the Tuesday and Wednesday debates in Detroit. That figure hasn’t shifted much since the end of the first round of debates, when 33 percent said Biden was their first choice.

No candidate saw movement outside the survey’s margin of error of 2 percentage points. The Aug. 1 poll was conducted among 2,419 registered voters who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state.

-snip-

Author Marianne Williamson, despite having a breakout night Tuesday, did not attract more voters and still sits at 1 percent. She did inspire dozens of memes, however, along with a New York Times op-ed.

-snip-

[George II]

1. Just got my email a few minutes ago, was going to post this here. Excellent news for Biden....

....lukewarm news for all the others.

[highplainsdem]

4. MSNBC mentioned it, so I went looking for it. Neither RCP nor 538 had it on their list of latest

polls yet, but googling it turned it up.

[Hortensis]

23. Yes, it is excellent for Biden, isn't it? The others were supposed to

be splitting significantly more of his "unrealistically" high initial support by now.

Some good news is that attack-to-break-out tactics haven't seemed to work, so maybe we won't be enduring the sight of a repeat in September.

[comradebillyboy]

2. An unsurprising result. Joe's got staying power it seems.

[highplainsdem]

6. Yep. His lead has been remarkably consistent.

[MineralMan]

3. I don't think this is surprising at all.

There was some action in the polls after the first debates, which was expected. It settled back down over a few days. The second debates were pretty much the same as the first, so it's not surprising that there wasn't much movement this time.

Things seem to have found their level for now. Biden has a double-digit lead over his closest rival, much as he has had from the very beginning.

Maybe after some of the low-performing candidates drop out, we'll see some more changes.

[frazzled]

7. It's not surprising, but it's because

very few people are watching these debates. And thus their minds (such as they are, mine included) are not changed.

Even I, who usually watches every single debate during a presidential year (and even debates for governor and other offices on the local level), found these last debates (not to mention the first ones) nearly intolerable: I turned it off after the first 75 minutes the first night, and although stuck with the second, used the mute button frequently, got up and did dishes, and turned to other channels on more than one occasion to check baseball scores or to see what house someone picked on House Hunters.

20-person debates in July and August, five and six months before the first primaries begin, are really more than the vast percentage of voters can tolerate. The polls haven't changed because nothing has caused them to change. The debates are pretty much like trees falling in the forest, no matter how intriguing they are to political junkies like us here.

[BannonsLiver]

5. Pete is really tanking

Also, I guess Booker got a .05 bump.

[FBaggins]

9. Not really

That's a slight bump up for him from the last Morning Consult poll and right in line with almost all of the polling for him over the last couple months.

[Anon-C]

8. Gabbards polling not listed in the article and the full download will not open...

...what was her polling if I may ask?

[highplainsdem]

10. She's at 1% according to this tweet:

Link to tweet

.@MorningConsult 2020 Dem (Post-Debate)

Candidates polling at 1% or less

Castro 1%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Ryan 1%
Steyer 1%
Williamson 1%
Bennet 0%
Bullock 0%
de Blasio 0%
Hickenlooper 0%
Inslee 0%
Moulton 0%

[Anon-C]

13. Thank you, highplainsdem!

[highplainsdem]

16. You're very welcome!

[crazytown]

11. Morning Consult is junk

" You know, I can predict what Morning Consult will be next week"
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=215603

[highplainsdem]

12. The results are very close to the last Quinnipiac poll, a few days ago. Main difference is

that Quinipiac has Warren doing better than Sanders, and this one has Sanders ahead. Which I'd expect Warren supporters to be unhappy about. But the RCP poll average has had them essentially tied for weeks.

We'll have more post-debate polls soon. But I'm not surprised this one didn't find any significant change.

[crazytown]

15. Yes.

My problem is Morning Consult had has consecutive polls with one candidate (Sanders) coming up with the same result week after week (18 or 19%). I can tell you what Morning Consult will be for Sanders next week. 18%. bank on it.

[Demsrule86]

14. You know the polls are pretty consistent...

Biden has been on top since day one.

[emmaverybo]

17. Thanks for the find. Biden is holding on to a strong lead. NT

[Princetonian]

18. Excellent.

[Skya Rhen]

19. Let's go, Joe!

[Tarheel_Dem]

20. As soon as I heard the ratings, I predicted the race wouldn't change "appreciably".

"...this week’s matchups did little to immediately impact potential Democratic primary voters’ preferences for president."

[TSIAS]

21. Honestly this thing is over

The media will create a horse race, but the only question really is which woman Biden will choose for VP. I hope its Gabbard but that seems unlikely.

Even as candidates drop out Biden should easily remain on top. All of these debates seem like a waste of time, only serving to trip him up and hurt his chances in the general.

[Cha]

22. Detroit Debates Deliver Meager Returns for Biden's Challengers

Cory got 1%, right?

Thanks, highplainsdem!

[oasis]

27. I expect Cory to get his official walking papers before the end of 2019.

I will shed no tears for that guy.

[Cha]

37. Yeah, I'm not too

impressed with the Senator, either.

oasis

[Kahuna7]

32. LOL! Trying to sound like he's from the hood. Where Cory

Last edited Fri Aug 2, 2019, 09:00 PM - Edit history (1)

grew up in Harrington Park, NJ, the black pop. was less than 1% black in 2010. Which means when Booker was growing up it was close to 0%. I'm actually from the hood. We had a funeral today where family members also from the hood (Newark where Cory was mayor) assembled. The consensus was, criminals belong in jail. As my cousin said, what should we do, open the doors and let them all out? Criminals are ruining Newark, not the crime bill.

[Cha]

38. Mahalo for Booker's

backstory, Kahuna

[Skya Rhen]

41. +1000

[Princetonian]

45. Amen.

[LincolnRossiter]

24. Aaaaaandddd as expected.

I wonder how disappointed CNN is right now.

[oasis]

25. Lesson learned: If you mess with Joe you get your hat brought to you.

[Faux pas]

26. 2419 peeps

is not a huge number to hang our hats on.

[Hav]

39. This is how polls work

For polls like this, 2000+ participants is a relatively high number which explains their small margin of error.

[Faux pas]

44. Thank you

[calguy]

28. I do believe Joe is the only one in this country

who has the depth of experience to command the huge problem of restoring our country from the damage trump has brought to us. Not only in this country alone, but with our allies around the world. Joe will have instant credibility with world leaders. The only one who won't welcome his presidency would be Putin and Kim.


Looks like the majority of Democrats agree with me, although I still don't put much faith in any polling until we get to January.

[oasis]

30. 100% agree.

[Kahuna7]

34. Yeppers. nt

[democratisphere]

29. Joe Biden continues to lead in most of the polls.

[stonecutter357]

31. K&R

[madville]

33. Glad to see Harris slipping back to Tier 2 status

My rankings right now:

Biden, Bernie, Warren - Tier 1
Harris, Mayor Pete, Beto(barely clinging) - Tier 2
Everyone else - Tier 3

[highplainsdem]

35. Hadn't noticed, but you're right that Harris is closer to Buttigieg than to Warren, and closer to

Booker than to Sanders, in this poll.

[Kahuna7]

36. Same here. Though Warren was never my cup of tea...

I believe she is running the best campaign so far. I'm not impressed with her, 'I've got a plan for that schtick.' I'm impressed with her demeanor and how she is staying above the nasty, tacky personal (Biden's too old ) attacks and smears. Truthfully, I always thought she'd be the first to go on the attack. But I do give her respect for commanding a presidential demeanor.

[DeminPennswoods]

40. You can't really discount that Warren + Sanders is also 32%

since these two candidates are both occupy the about the same space on the progressive/lefty side.

[highplainsdem]

43. I'm not. I've pointed out elsewhere in this forum that Warren and Sanders have dividing a

progressive bloc for months now, and that bloc is comparable to the support for Biden.

But they're two candidates, not one, and I can't see them merging their support, possibly by saying they'll form a ticket (I think a nominee in his or her 70s is fine with a younger VP, but two candidates in thee 70s on the same ticket would probably raise more questions about age). Nor can I see either of them stepping aside and trying to direct their supporters to the other. Not do I think they'd have much luck if they tried to do that.

[Scurrilous]

42. K&R