It's Biden's race to lose in Iowa - but he should beware the rise of Warren

[left-of-center2012]

Going into the second set of presidential debates, the field in Iowa looks like this as the corn tassels and the Iowa State Fair approaches: it’s Joe Biden’s race to lose, Elizabeth Warren is on his tail with a populist screed and anything can happen before the first presidential winnowing point in the caucuses next February.

All polls show Biden with a lead beyond the margin of error, including Iowa. Most polls show Warren and Harris moving up after the first rounds of debate, and each posted prodigious fundraising totals for the most recent quarter – bested only by Pete Buttigieg.

Warren has the biggest staff in Iowa. She is well-tuned to the populist base of the state Democratic party, which distrusts Wall Street and Washington, and has made strong pitches to forgotten rural and riverside manufacturing towns left behind by world trade.

Biden has been campaigning in Iowa since 1988. He has many long friendships, including former governor Tom Vilsack, who served as agriculture secretary in the Obama/Biden administration. Biden recently released a rural platform that has Vilsack written all over it. Biden will have the big dogs in Des Moines. But when he reaches out to old friends elsewhere he gets no answer. Late to the game, many of the best organizers already were snatched up. He hasn’t lit much among the lonely little burgs along the blacktops, while Warren launched her campaign in red western Iowa.

Harris has not made Iowa her central play ... Although she bids well, she has not built the sort of organization key to winning a caucus state ... She is making her case in South Carolina, Nevada and California.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/29/iowa-joe-biden-elizabeth-warren-2020-election