Kamala Harris Is Now the Candidate to Beat - WSJ op-ed

[question everything]

By Gerard Baker Editor at Large

(snip)

It’s an especially curious state because I suspect that, if we weren’t all talking about the squad right now, we would be talking incessantly about Kamala Harris. There’s not much doubt that the California senator has suddenly become the sensation of the primary season so far. In the space of a month she has traveled from the crowded middle of the distant second tier of candidates to, arguably perhaps, the front of the front. It’s difficult to recall such a sudden shift of fortunes in a primary contest absent an actual primary or caucus vote.

The polling speaks for itself. In the Real Clear Politics polling average, her score has almost doubled from around 7% before the first Democratic debate to just under 13%. But that national poll picture doesn’t fully capture the momentum she has established in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire. It must be noted that she still trails Joe Biden in all the polls. But it’s not easy to find a thoughtful Democrat outside the Biden camp who sees an easy way for the former vice president to pull out of his free fall since his widely panned performance in the first debate.

(snip)

Nicolas Checa, a pollster and political consultant and managing director of McLarty Associates, says the Democratic race is evolving into a contest between advocates for remedies to what he calls the two inequalities. The first concerns gender, race and sexual identity. The second is economic. Ms. Harris has jumped ahead in the fight to win the first contest. That’s why her take-down of Mr. Biden at the first Democratic debate on the race issue was so effective. On the issue of economic inequality, Sen. Elizabeth Warren is forging steadily ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders.

(snip)

What could stop her? So far she hasn’t yet made much headway with black voters, who for the time being are mostly remaining loyal to Mr. Biden; he wins support by reminding everyone he served alongside President Barack Obama for eight years. But if Mr. Biden does fade, Ms. Harris may win over that support... One experienced Democratic figure who’s signed on to the Harris campaign says the bigger risk to her prospects may be a temptation to push herself out to the left—especially if she’s in a final battle with Ms. Warren.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/kamala-harris-is-now-the-candidate-to-beat-11563556667 (paid subscription)

[BootinUp]

1. Great opinion page, lol.

[question everything]

3. The interesting thing is that, so far, most of the comments -

they are readers of the WSJ after all - disagree with this oped...

[hlthe2b]

2. Seems rather premature to put it mildly...

Maybe wait and see how everyone does after (only the) SECOND debate? Geez

Yes, she's impressive, but wow.

[wasupaloopa]

4. I can't read the whole piece but I feel very certain Kamala Harris will win

the nomination after Super Tuesday. We Californians will put her over the top.

[Skya Rhen]

41. California primary is not winner-take-all. It's proportional...

[crazytown]

5. At this point in time, Kamala Harris would be Trump's choice.

He is wanting to run against the squad, and would co-opt Harris as a member.

[Mr.Bill]

8. If she wins the nomination,

I predict Trump will break out the N word.

[customerserviceguy]

12. He doesn't have to

He has plenty of dog whistles that mean the same thing.

[Mr.Bill]

20. But I still think he will.

That's the level he will be at by that time.

[bluewater]

6. "since his widely panned performance in the first debate"

"But it’s not easy to find a thoughtful Democrat outside the Biden camp who sees an easy way for the former vice president to pull out of his free fall since his widely panned performance in the first debate."

The next debate is make or break for the Biden Campaign. Another disappointing debate performance will lower his support from ~25% now down to the teens.

[Mr.Bill]

9. Biden's problem long term, as I see it

is when the lower tiered candidates drop out, who will the people who support them go to? Unfortunately, I don't see many of them going to Biden.

[customerserviceguy]

13. Many, if not most of the lower tiered candidates

are centrists, and they would go to Biden. Of course, I'm not talking about Williamson or Yang here, but their current support is inconsequential.

[question everything]

29. Not even if he start talking about love?

[customerserviceguy]

43. In politics, love means the same thing

that it does in tennis.

[Drunken Irishman]

16. Right now, the lower-tiered candidates make up only 13% of the vote...

And that's including Mayor Pete, who I wouldn't really consider a lower-tier candidate (but I went with any candidate polling with less than 10% nationally).

It's unlikely any of those candidates' supporters go to one candidate. But let's assume they all dropped out today and of that 13%...

5% went to Warren
4% went to Harris
2% went to Biden
2% went to Sanders

That would give Biden 30.4% nationally and Warren would take Sanders' spot at second with 19.6% nationally - still over ten-points behind Biden.

[bluewater]

19. That math left out the 28% undecided.

Who knows where they will go after the next debate? No one knows... yet.

If Biden has another disappointing debate, they probably won't be getting behind him, would they?

I think not. The undecided haven't supported Biden yet, so it seems likely they would not after another poor debate performance.

Also, Biden dropped in the polls after a poor performance in the first debate, so I think it's fairly safe to say he would drop again in the polls after a second poor performance.

Let's wait for the next debate and see what actually happens with the polls.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. Yes but the question wasn't about undecideds. It was about the lesser candidates.

[bluewater]

23. Thanks for the Discssion.

Thanks for sharing your perspective, and thanks for hearing mine.

Let's agree to see what happens as the next debate goes forward.

[Thekaspervote]

26. Biden is the favored second choice candidate with Sanders supporters and others as well

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/cnn-poll-06-04-2019/h_1c3591bde1cdfecf56a457205bdcf0fb

[Mr.Bill]

30. Sanders supporters I have met, some in my own family

pretty much act like they will vote for Sanders if he is in a coma.

[emulatorloo]

11. Sounds like lots of wishful thinking from Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal.

[msongs]

14. free fall lol. is this written by the harris campaign. nt

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. Obama's first debate against Romney was "widely panned". Guess how that turned out.

Go on....guess.

[bluewater]

22. Exactly, The 2nd debate is CRUCIAL for the Biden Campaign.

President Obama overwhelmed Romney in their second debate and turned the Presidential race around.

Joe Biden MUST do significantly better in the next debate or his 2020 Primary Campaign is in big trouble.

[Tarheel_Dem]

24. Not as much trouble as you'd like.

[bluewater]

25. No need to get personal.

"Not as much trouble as you'd like."



We're just talking politics on a political forum.

[Tarheel_Dem]

27. You Better Believe It!

[Mr.Bill]

31. Proceed, governor. n/t

[underthematrix]

7. I'm one of those African American women who is not on the

the Harris train. She's my senator and I think she's doing a great job. But she's not even in my top five.

It's interesting that both she and #TraitorTrump used racial grievance to improve their poll numbers.

With that said I will support/VOTE for the DEM nominee even if it's her. We're in the most important fight of my lifetime and if we lose this battle we lose everything and everyone we hold dear.

[Thekaspervote]

35. Good point- they do use racial grievances in their campaigns.To me not agood quality in a president

President Obama NEVER used the race card

[Skya Rhen]

42. +1,000,000

[snowybirdie]

10. Love how the right

tells the Dems what to do. Harris is very impressive, but I think her lack of foreign policy experience will hurt her. She is the product of one state's political process. At least Pres Obama had lived abroad, had an international background and was well traveled. Even though it's California, her experience is in one State.

[customerserviceguy]

15. The WSJ

is not talking to Dems. They're talking to their right wing country clubber Republicons to "warn" them about Harris, and maybe cover themselves with a little more financial support to Biden to shore him up.

[question everything]

33. Gerald Baker also wrote this op-ed

https://www.democraticunderground.com/128758437

Imagine for a moment you’re the ruler of China. You’ve got a master plan to run the world. The main obstacle to your ambitions, of course, is America, shining city on a hill, a nation founded on an ideal—the most inspiring and destabilizing ideal in human history—that all are created equal and that they should be free to pursue their own cause without undue interference or direction from some despotic monarch or party chairman.

This nation, powered by this ideal, rose from upstart to superpower in a little more than a century, and despite proliferating challenges, remains dominant not just militarily and economically but as an idea—a beacon of hope and opportunity for billions of people not fortunate enough to call it home. Mindful of all this, you look across at this great nation and discover that the big question preoccupying the people who control the public conversation there this week is: Should Joe Biden be disqualified from the presidency because he sniffed that woman’s hair?

I have a simple question for you: Is this really happening, people?

[LakeArenal]

36. No shit....

Also as much as they try to ignore it... Franken baggage......

[mcar]

17. Kick

[Kurt V.]

28. the title is most likely true.

[samir.g]

32. We'll see who she takes a knife to in the next debate

[Thekaspervote]

34. Yahhh!

[LakeArenal]

37. All the polls are too early.. But a right leaning paper... and bam... Not so early for opinions....

[left-of-center2012]

38. Well, that's one man's opinion

It's from the WSJ 'opinion page'.

I suspect other newspapers have their opinion?

And there's that old expression about 'opinions',
ending in "Everyone's got one".

[SidDithers]

39. DU rec...nt

Sid

[NNadir]

40. Thank you, Rupert Murdoch, for letting us know.