Bulletpoint: Beto O'Rourke Doesn't Have A Base

[Hassin Bin Sober]

Bulletpoint: Beto O’Rourke Doesn’t Have A Base

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bulletpoint-beto-orourke-doesnt-have-a-base/

Here’s the gist of the argument: O’Rourke is probably competing for young voters more than for older ones, for white voters more than nonwhite ones, and for moderate voters more than for very liberal ones. (His voting record in Congress was fairly moderate, although the policy positions he’s staking out now are more of a mixed bag.) There are plenty of young voters, white voters and moderate voters in the Democratic electorate. But there aren’t that many who are young and white and moderate.

According to the Cooperative Congressional Election Study,1 63 percent of voters in the 2016 Democratic primaries were white, 51 percent identified themselves as moderate or conservative, and 56 percent were born in 1965 or afterward, per the Pew Research Center. Multiply those numbers together, and you’d expect:

63% * 51% * 56% = ~18%

…about 18 percent of Democrats to be all three things at once. That’s enough to form a real base when you’re competing for a party nomination, especially when Democratic rules require you to win at least 15 percent of voters in a state or congressional district to secure convention delegates.

But when you actually look at individual-level voter data, you find something different: Only 12 percent of Democratic primary voters are young and white and moderate. That’s far fewer voters to go around, especially when you’re also competing with, say, Pete Buttigieg for the same voters.

[bearsfootball516]

1. I like Beto, but he just doesn't have a big enough following

He’s got a solid chunk of a few percentage points of voters that are sticking with him, but he’s not growing his followers at all.

[PatrickforO]

2. Interesting. That article also had a nice table

showing parts of the party divided into moderate and liberal.

I was gratified to see that almost half, 48.6%, are liberal!

[FBaggins]

3. Sure he does

But they're almost all in Texas.

[Indygram]

5. I'm not in Texas

And if that were true he would not have so easily gotten hundreds of donations from every state.

He has had people canvassing all across the country since the weekend after he announced. He's been running a 50 state campaign since day 1.

[BeyondGeography]

4. He could be number five if not for Buttigieg

Then again so could Booker, Klobuchar or even Gillibrand.

[dalton99a]

6. Another useless "Beto, Get Out" piece from the Get Off My Lawn geriatric center

[NNadir]

7. I love that locution, "get off my lawn geriatric center." Very witty. n/t

[Indygram]

8. Pretty much

Sucks to be them. Too bad MJ Hegar and Amanda Edwards have to put up with such blatant and disgusting sexism. Instead of wasting time try to push Beto out people could actually be supporting these incredible women running. One is a war hero who earned a purple heart and the other one has a law degree from Harvard. It's sad that so many Democrats are not embracing and supporting these qualified and capable women. It's quite shameful.

[DesertRat]

10. Nate Silver is hardly geriatric. nt

[DesertRat]

9. He also doesn't have a foil as useful as Ted Cruz

When he was running against Cruz, Beto really benefited from that sharp contrast.

[Tipperary]

11. Beto O'Rourke doesn't have a chance. nt

[Politicub]

12. I thought he would have caught fire based on his performance in Texas

[Indygram]

13. From a town hall Beto held in Trump Country today, with two curious Trump supporters in attendance

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

The Trump supporters were not rude or disrespectful...they listened and even stayed in line to meet him.

No one taken for granted, no one written off.

Link to tweet