Harris, Warren surge in new California poll

[bluewater]

The latest Quinnipiac California poll shows Harris leading among 2020 presidential hopefuls, with 23 percent of California Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters now behind her — surging six points since the last Quinnipiac survey in April. Biden, at 21 percent, has lost five points in that same period.

Closely following are Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who has remained static at 18 percent, and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, now at 16 percent, more than doubling her 7 percent standing in April.

The top tier of 2020 hopefuls is followed in the current poll by South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 3 percent and entrepreneur Andrew Yang at 2 percent. Four Democratic candidates track at 1 percent, with the remainder all polling less than one percent, the poll showed.
On the issue of electability, Biden is the overwhelming favorite, with 45 percent saying that the former VP has the best chance of beating President Donald Trump, compared to just 12 percent for Sanders, 11 percent for Harris and 8 percent for Warren.
Twenty-six percent of California Democrats also say Biden would be the best leader, compared to 18 percent for Harris, 17 percent for Sanders and 14 percent for Warren.

But Harris leads the pack in the excitement factor — with 68 percent of California Democrats saying they would be most excited by her nomination, followed by 65 percent for Warren, 58 percent for Biden and 55 percent for Sanders as the standard-bearer.
Twenty-eight percent say Warren has the best policy ideas, with 20 percent for Sanders, 11 percent for Biden and 9 percent for Harris.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/harris-warren-surge-in-new-california-poll/ar-AAEsoeV

Disclaimer: This is an early poll. No single poll result, especially this early, should be over emphasized.

Notice that 45% thought Biden was "most electable", yet only 21% actually preferred him as the nominee. The only way THAT makes any sense is that the responders also feel other candidates can also defeat Trump.

[PatrickforO]

1. We've got to change our mindset, I think, from who is

'most electable.'

That is, at best, a guess. In 2008 Obama wasn't supposed to be 'electable,' at least according to his primary opponent. Yet he won.

In Republican-world Romney was supposed to be MUCH more electable than Obama, because, after all, Obama had the temerity to act as our president while being black, and Fox routinely talked about him in the context of his 'agenda' and how he must be a socialist. But gosh, Mitt lost.

In 2016, we thought we had the electable candidate, and while she did gain 2.9 million more votes than Trump, it was very close in swing districts - we've discussed all of this so I won't belabor it - and so Trump won. And yes, we must acknowledge Russian tampering, and other Republican cheating. But still, Trump won. Our 'electable' candidate did not win.

That's just in recent times.

My point here is that the people are getting pretty upset. Yeah, you've got the 1/3 of America that are fascists, but the other 2/3?

They want to know what the candidates propose about healthcare, cost of college, social security, climate change, and yes, the deficit/debt.

The most electable candidate will be that person who can best articulate plans around these issues and generates confidence in the future.

THE MOST ELECTABLE CANDIDATE WILL BE THE ONE WHO MOST EFFECTIVELY SETS THE VISION OF HOW THIS COUNTRY OUGHT TO BE.

That could be Warren, Harris, Buttigieg or several of the others.

I'm sorry, but to my mind, Biden may not actually be the most electable. I'm not saying he's bad - I will support him should he be the nominee.

I just think Warren, Harris or Buttigieg are more electable.

[DownriverDem]

3. Really?

I'm sorry, but we've gone that route before and lost big. For most of us it is who can win the Electoral College and beat trump. It's state by state which means winning the middle. I totally disagree with your premise of who can win.

[bluewater]

4. Let's vote on it!

All will become clear in time. Things get serious once the voting actually starts.

In the 2007-2008 Democratic Primary race, Barack Obama did not lead in a single major national poll until Feb, 2008.

A month after voting started.

[marylandblue]

6. When did we go down that road before?

Obama had vision and he won. I can't say the same of Clinton. She had plenty of ideas, but that's not the same thing. She mostly seem to run on competence vs. incompetence, but that never works.

[PatrickforO]

10. When? When have we gone that route before and lost big?

And don't get me wrong. I will support Biden if he's our nominee, tooth and nail. We've got to get rid of Trump.

But consider this:

There are 86 million millennials, and the oldest members of the following gen z are now 23. It really is true that leaders set the vision, and the people respond. It is true in organizational development, and it is true in government.

I mean, look at the new House. This new group of freshmen Congress members. They are majority female, and majority people of color. They reflect the diversity of today's America. Who elected them? Oh, they say AOC was elected due to some kind of circumstance - a low-turnout election. But she was elected. Tlaib? 84% of the vote. A landslide. Omar? Won by 56%.

Right now, Biden is bleeding. He has had to hire new speechwriters after his debate performance, and like the other candidates, he has his own set of questions he must adequately answer.

My question is particularly hard, because I'm the father of four millennials, and the grandfather of three (so far). So, to both Biden and Sanders, my question is this: You've been in national government for many years. If you know how to get things done and work across the aisle as well as you say you do, then why are things so much worse now?

And I know that is a hard question. I do. Very hard. But to my mind it is quite legitimate, because like millions in this country I struggle to make ends meet and worry about healthcare, the solvency of Social Security and Medicare, the cost of college for my kids and grandkids and the climate.

Honestly, from the heart, I'm sick to death of politicians who talk a good battle about all the great things they will do when elected and then nothing happens when we vote them in and they go to DC. Tired. The interests of the people are rarely, if ever, first in the minds of most politicians, and definitely not in the minds of Republican politicians at all. That's because of lobbies, Citizens United and the massive, massive amount of corporate corruption in DC.

There really has been a class war, waged by corporate interests since the inception of the New Deal, and we are now losing badly.

So, for the sake of my progeny, I am no longer willing to be patient with gradual change. The problematic thing is that since 2010, we've had gridlock in Congress and we MUST have movement forward. We MUST make progress on healthcare. And you know what? It doesn't have to be medicare for all. It could be just fixing the Republican sabotage to the ACA and inserting a public option. But we'd have movement forward.

For the climate, yeah, I want a Green New Deal, and I'm still pissed that the Dems in the Senate voted present on it. It was a non-binding resolution, for God's sake! This kind of 'politics' makes me feel uneasy because it doesn't help me or my family at all. But you know what? I'd be quite happy if we got back into the Paris accords and just did a few policy things that would set us on a less destructive course. We don't have that much more time, so there MUST be movement forward.

And the debt? We've got to repeal the grossly irresponsible 2017 tax cut for billionaire donors and corporations because it has brought to debt to nearly 90% of GDP, which is unsustainable, and if there is a recession there is real doubt in my mind whether the bankers will even allow a stimulus package - for the government to be the spender of last resort.

So...........we need a candidate who is visionary, articulate and has some charisma. The candidate who sets the vision of the way to move the nation forward in the face of these seemingly intractable problems will be the one who is most electable. The one who can get the millennials and gen z to the polls in higher numbers is most electable.

But then, everyone has an opinion. This one is mine. You also are entitled to yours, and we can agree to disagree.

[Orangepeel]

13. With Gore? With Kerry? With H Clinton?

The candidate who seems like the safest bet, doesn’t always turnout to be the best bet.

Would Bill Bradley, Howard Dean, Martin O’Malley have been able to do a better job at overcoming republican cheating or would they have done worse? Impossible to tell, but it seems to me that we’ve been less successful going down what seems like the surest road.

[marylandblue]

5. +1 And I agree that Warren has the clearest vision which is generating excitement, but

I'll given Biden some credit here. In the last few weeks he has started to articulate a pragmatic moderate vision that has it's own appeal. If he continues down this track he can shift from merely being "most electable" to having workable solutions that both center and left can live with. Even if not my preference, at least he knows where he is going and I'd have a lot more confidence in him.

[honest.abe]

9. I suppose you think Warren is more electable than Biden.

I really doubt that. Warren is great but her appeal is mostly limited to those on left side of the Democratic party and left leaning Indies. She wont do well with moderates and may not generate much enthusiasm with AA and other minority voters which could affect turnout.

[Kind of Blue]

12. Thank you for every single point and special note of the candidates mentioned.

And I think one of the best ways to change the mindset is not to run with fear. I for one am tired of every 4 years minimizing marginalized people’s dire needs under the guise of solidarity; that after all these years of doing so we still get a 45 and anyone to the slightest degree of left is our best hope. The emphasis on PoC bailing out the country out of another mess that we did not create and to be afraid is upon us again though the overwhelming majority of us did not vote for 45 nor 43.

I'm glad there's time for the electability of Warren, Harris and Buttigieg, so far, will continue to grow. I was pleased to see this Political Wire poll, for what it's worth at this time, that who members think will win the nomination and their preference for another nominee are at odds. The mood of people in my sphere are heartily for Warren, Harris and Buttigieg in confidence, capability, intelligence and very fierce desire to make this country work for its people. https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287203920

[MrsCoffee]

2. k&r

[zackymilly]

7. Go, Kamala, Go!

[colsohlibgal]

8. We Need to Support Whoever Gets The Nomination

This is all hands on deck, 5 alarm fire, any port in a storm.

I like some of the top contenders better than others but I will fully support whoever gets the nod.

No time for hurt feelings. Biden’s age worries me......things can change quickly at his stage of life, saw it happen with both my Dad and his Dad, my Grandfather. Not thrilled with some of his previous votes and actions prior either.

But if he does get the nod I am all in, I would just urge him to pick a very competent liberal running mate, preferably a woman.

[bigtree]

11. k&r!

[rollin74]

14. Awesome! k&r

[comradebillyboy]

15. Glad to see Kamala gaining some momentum.