Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumHow Joe Sestak Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
Sestak is running on a platform of restoring American leadership on the world stage, which he believes touches on everything from national security to climate change. Its a natural fit for Sestak, a 31-year Navy veteran who served as a defense policy advisor to President Bill Clinton and eventually rose to the rank of three-star admiral. And he thinks those credentials can set him apart from the other candidates, including those of former Vice President Joe Biden, whose judgment hasnt always been impeccable when it comes to foreign policy, Sestak communications director Evan OConnell told FiveThirtyEight, citing Bidens vote on the Iraq War.
Indeed, if youre going to construct a path to the nomination for Sestak, it probably goes something like: If Biden stumbles, heres another white man with gravitas who can speak credibly to middle America (and doesnt call himself a socialist). But he has a problem that other candidates in this position (e.g., Sen. Michael Bennet or Gov. Steve Bullock) dont hes made a lot of enemies in the Democratic establishment. In 2010, in defiance of party leadership, Sestak primaried Sen. Arlen Specter, who had recently switched parties from the GOP. Although Sestak impressively came from behind to topple Specter in the primary, he lost the general election by 2 points, and some Democrats blamed him for blowing a winnable race. So when he tried for a rematch in 2016, party elders recruited another Democrat, Katie McGinty, to block his path, and she handily defeated him in the primary. That was the last time Sestak ran for office until now.
OConnell wouldnt say which specific constituencies within the party Sestak would try to woo, but his campaign strategy so far has been focused on retail politics shaking hands at parades and convincing one voter at a time in Iowa. But Sestak also plans to tap his old donor base in Pennsylvania, which raised millions for him in his previous campaigns, although OConnell acknowledged that presidential fundraising will be a challenge because of Sestaks late entry into the race. Without question, Sestak is starting from behind: Since 1976, only one successful nominee, Bill Clinton, kicked off a campaign later than April of the year before the election. And with only 27 percent of Democrats having an opinion of Sestak, according to a recent YouGov poll, he can scarcely afford to get a late start. However, he didnt do so by choice: OConnell says Sestak would have jumped in the race much sooner, but he didnt want to run as long as his daughter was undergoing treatment for brain cancer. (She was given the all-clear earlier in June.)
Sestak was always going to have an uphill climb. He hasnt won an election in nine years, and long layovers between campaigns can make for weaker candidates. Its also hard to win a nomination without at least some support from the party establishment, which he seems unlikely to get. Finally, he has yet to reach 1 percent in any poll, which is a severe handicap to his chances of making the stage for future debates (not to mention getting enough votes to win the nomination). Unfortunately for Admiral Joe, on-the-ground campaigning simply may not reach enough voters to make up for that.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-joe-sestak-could-win-the-2020-democratic-primary/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,866 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
whistler162
(11,155 posts)Of course Jimmy Carter had that issue in 76' also, Clinton in 92', and some guy named Obama in 2008.
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JI7
(89,274 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LonePirate
(13,431 posts)Otherwise he has ZERO chance to win.
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True Dough
(17,331 posts)I might have a better chance of winning the Powerball jackpot.
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sandensea
(21,672 posts)But as the nominee?
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we can do it
(12,196 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bucolic_frolic
(43,303 posts)ain't gonna happen. McGinty was a real winner too.
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StevieM
(10,500 posts)He completely transformed that race at the end, including congressional races.
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Mr.Bill
(24,330 posts)you can't have a president who is under investigation.
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Proud Liberal Dem
(24,438 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
irisblue
(33,034 posts)Maybe he will help restore the Democratic White House by working for the Dem winner.
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maxsolomon
(33,400 posts)America votes on how it FEELS about Domestic conditions.
To whit: 2016.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Celerity
(43,537 posts)soooooooo
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SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
mcar
(42,376 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden