It Won't Be Easy To Make The September Debate

[bluewater]

It Won’t Be Easy For Many Democrats To Make The September Debate

We’ll know next week who made the stage for the second Democratic primary debate on July 30-31 — July 16 is the deadline for polls that can affect who qualifies — so stay tuned, but in the meantime, here’s an early look at which Democrats are positioned to make the third debate in September.

At the moment, just five candidates have qualified for the third debate [Namely: Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Sanders and Warren], according to our research, and while it’s early yet (candidates have until late August to improve their donor numbers and gain more support in the polls), the debate’s higher thresholds will probably result in far fewer than 20 candidates making the stage.


To qualify, candidates must have at least 2 percent support in four qualifying national or early-state polls released after the first debate on June 26-27 through two weeks before the third debate on Sept. 12-13 and 130,000 unique donors (including at least 400 individual donors in at least 20 states).1 And while those thresholds might not sound that difficult to meet, it’s definitely raising the ante from the first two debates, in which candidates needed to hit only 1 percent support in three qualifying polls or 65,000 unique donors (including at least 200 individual donors in at least 20 states).

So far, there have been six qualifying surveys for the third debate, so with more surveys to come, the number of candidates who make the cut will probably grow.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wont-be-easy-for-many-democrats-to-make-the-september-debate/

[Auggie]

1. Five is a good enough number IMO

[Indygram]

2. There will be a 6th

Beto needs one more poll at 2% between now and like a week before the fall debates. He made the fundraising pretty much on day one.

[bluewater]

3. Sweet!

[ancianita]

5. I've been reading about Beto being a founding member of the Cult of the Dead Cow in Lubbock. Stop me

if I'm mistaking you for another Beto supporter.)

It's fascinating how he just became part of the most influential cybergroup in Internet history. His handle was Psychedlic Warlord. Then he went off to college.

Security engineer and cDc member, Adam O'Donnell, and Facebook security chief, Alex Stamos, hosted an early fundraiser for Beto to beat Cruz's butt.

The thing they hated so much, which is such a cDc thing, is that Cruz was the top client of Cambridge Analytica which had siphoned off Facebook data on around 87 million unwitting users. That's such a Cruz thing to go in for.

They've been for net neutrality since before anyone ever knew what it was.

?v=571914180319

For Beto fans, I highly recommend this. It's got 24 pages referencing your candidate and totally fascinating history, growth and ethics of the cyberworld.

[DesertRat]

7. That's fascinating

I hadn't heard about the book until your post. There's a poem by Beto (Psychedelic Warlord) titled "The Song of the Cow" and a video of Christopher Walken reading the poem on You Tube.

[ancianita]

8. The most important thing to remember is that they went on to be advisers and helpers of the Pentagon

and 16 Intel agencies of our government! Because they were "white hats."

One of their associates, Jeff Moss, aka The Dark Tangent, went on to found DefCon, the biggest convention on the planet of hackers, phreakers, telco and computer security business people.

Richard Clarke, former head of cybersecurity under Obama (I think) says that these people are solid.

The author, Joe Menn, says "the Cult of the Dead Cow is a skeleton key for the whole saga of modern security, especially the struggle to sort through what is ethical."

One of their members, co-founder of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, John Perry Barlow (deep with Jerry Garcia and the Grateful Dead) was the author of the most famous political document in the Internet's history, his "Declaration of Independence of Cyberspace."

This group has produced the best and the brightest in American tech history.

[DesertRat]

9. Very cool! nt

[ancianita]

11. For this reason I REALLY want Beto in the next debate. This country needs to know what he and his

tech supporters are like.

His early cDc stuff was silly kid stuff that the right wing wants to evilize, but it's nothing of the kind, and younger Texas Republicans know it.

If we need Texas, it's Beto and the tech supporting millennials there who can do it for us.

[Indygram]

10. I'll have to look into it at some point

Thanks for the heads up!

[USALiberal]

4. Good! nt

[DesertRat]

6. Good

By then it will be time to let the serious candidates actually have enough time to debate and draw meaningful distinctions.