New Economist/YouGov poll, ONLY Democratic voters considered: Biden 26%, Warren 17%, Harris 16%,

[highplainsdem]

Sanders 11%

Link to the PDF file of the poll:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/al25duedar/econTabReport.pdf


See page 150 there for the breakdown by party identification.

Joe's lead over the rest of the field is stronger with Democrats (I've noticed the same thing with other polls), will be stronger in closed primaries.

[Tiggeroshii]

1. Good thing only democrats are voting

Oh wait.

[highplainsdem]

3. Many states have closed primaries.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. Many don't

[DownriverDem]

7. Remember

It's not who I like or you like. It's who can beat trump.

[Tiggeroshii]

14. Most likely of whom is appealed to by non democrats

[highplainsdem]

15. See reply 4. We've already had lots of polls to find out which Democrat is most likely to beat

Trump. Biden's won the vast majority of them (I think there was one outlier where Beto did better).

Some of those polls of Democrat-vs-Trump that included Republicans and independents as well as Democrats had Biden beating Trump by double digits.

My concern with polls that included independents who say they're leaning Democrat, as well as registered Democrats, is that they're the most likely to pick up independent voters looking for a far-left candidate who won't be willing to vote for a Democratic candidate who's center-left. The sort of people who voted in open Democratic primaries in 2016 and then voted for Stein in the GE, wouldn't vote for HRC.

[Tiggeroshii]

17. Majority doesnt matter.

Non democrats in rural states do. We won a majority last time and somehow Trump is still president.

[highplainsdem]

19. Which is why we need a center-left, not a far-left, nominee. We have to win the electoral

college.

Again, in the polls of any particular Democratic candidate against Trump, polling independents and Republicans as well as Democrats, Biden does better than any of the other Democratic candidates.

In Democratic-primary polls including independents who identify themselves as leaning Democrat, as well as registered Democrats, some of our Democratic nominees do much better than Biden with those self-professed Democratic-leaning independents because those voters are often looking for candidates to Biden's left. You're not going to find a lot of far-left independents in rural states.

[Tiggeroshii]

20. Somehow more left tops center left out there.

Sherrod Brown, point in case vs a center left candidate Richard Cordray. Brown won by double digits while Cordray lost his governors race by almost double digits? The staunch progressive won. Michigan's most liberal state rep won the governorship by double digits. I don't think this happened because they were centrists (they aren't)

[highplainsdem]

21. Some of our candidates are left of Sherrod Brown.

And again, the polls so far show Biden is our strongest candidate against Trump.

The polls asking Democratic voters which candidate they believe is most electable usually have Biden way ahead of all the other candidates.

Biden being center-left isn't the only reason he's ahead. Voters like him, they trust him, and they value his experience.

[Tiggeroshii]

24. Polling now is as useful as polling at this time in 2015

Which showed Hillary beating Trump by 20 points

[emmaverybo]

27. +1

[highplainsdem]

4. And btw, if you want to consider ALL voters in the GE, you should look at the polls of

head-to-head matchups with Trump. And there Biden consistently beats Trump by the widest margins.

[thesquanderer]

31. re: "head-to-head matchups with Trump...Biden consistently beats Trump by the widest margins"...

...but others do well also. For example...

[highplainsdem]

32. That's an outlier in terms of how many Democratic candidates it shows beating Trump. Most

of the polls I've seen show Biden doing considerably better against Trump than any of the other candidates.

[George II]

2. Next year there will be less open primaries and less caucuses....

I guess Democrats around the country saw the rat-f'ing in 2016 and have decided to do something about it.

[DownriverDem]

9. Some Dems do it too

We vote for the weak repub in primaries here in Michigan to help our chances.

[qazplm135]

6. only 26% is not a great number for Biden

Warren and Sanders are blocking each other and one of them will have to drop out for the other to have a chance.

If that happens (it won't), then where the remaining voters go would probably determine the winner whether that is Biden, the remainder of Warren/Sanders, or Harris.

What is very clear is that:

1. the nomination is wide open, any one of four people can still win
2. Having said that, Sanders being fourth is pretty much a death knell for him.
3. Biden better find a way to re-establish himself, the trend is not his friend.
4. Warren and Harris will need to find a way to take it up another level. They have both made progress, but they have not sealed any deals at all.

[DownriverDem]

10. All that matters

Is who can win the Electoral College.

[bluewater]

18. Most of the State Polls are about a month out of date, some more, though.

I look everyday to see if any updated.

[qazplm135]

26. well

several of our candidates can win the electoral college, and to get to the electoral college you have to win the nomination.

[bluewater]

13. Biden's polling average is at 27.1% as of today.

From his high watermark of 41.4% on May 10th, Biden's support has declined to 27.1% support today.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

His support is headed in the wrong direction. He dropped considerably after the last debate, perhaps he can turn that around in the second debate at the end of the month.

[Gothmog]

8. With 15% rule, sanders will not get any delegates and Biden would do well

[NurseJackie]

11. I know. I know!

[George II]

12. If that were a state poll, Biden would get 44% of the delegates, Warren 29%, Harris 27%, others 0%

[DownriverDem]

25. Good

We need a candidate that can win the Electoral College and beat trump.

[oasis]

16. Let's go with Joe.

[femmedem]

22. I'm encouraged to see that Buttigieg's favorability is higher than his unfavorability among blacks.

Pg. 97 on the document: 26% of blacks surveyed view him very or somewhat favorably; only 17% somewhat or very unfavorably, with 56% not knowing.


Edited to add: he's got a long way to go before he can get enough support for the nomination, but there doesn't seem to be animosity that would make him a poor vp choice.

[highplainsdem]

23. He's a very appealing candidate.

[Tarheel_Dem]

28. K&R

[Cha]

29. Yay, the Democrat, Joe Biden, is

solidly ahead right now!

[Scurrilous]

30. K&R