Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumThe Iowa Poll is in and it is showing statewide what we are seeing locally
Biden is leading, and Warren is coming on strong. I do not have it in front of me..There is just one point between Sanders and Warren. Buttigieg has made a huge huge move...just one point behind them.. I did not catch Harris.. but everyone else is 5% or less..
Listening to CNN cover it.. This is the first poll showing where we are since March..
EDIT to add... Biden 24% Sanders 16% Warren 15% and Buttigieg 14% Harris 7% everyone else is in the tank..
This is the first Iowa poll we have had with VP Biden in it.. and locally it was looking good, and so happy to see it is basically state wide.. this is good..
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JI7
(89,275 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Peacetrain
(22,879 posts)its early...they do a really good job with this poll ..
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)ask how many Bernie Sanders voters would vote for Hillary but threw in another question with another word I think was "respect," or something of that general order, which overlapped the something like 90% of the first question almost entirely.
Thanks for posting. First debates June 26-27, less than 3 weeks. Almost all of IA's currently virtual unknowns will be there.
Wonder who former Sanders supporter Marianne Williamson will pull votes from? She's a very talented speaker, Sarah Palin level, and as far as positions go is basically echoing Sanders's. I'm already gritting my teeth for some post-debate ecstasies about how this wonderful person should be president.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)April Gravis Biden 19, BS 19
March Emerson Biden 25, BS 24
March Des Moines/CNN Biden 27, BS 25
Comparing tonight's Des Moines Register/CNN to the last one in March, Biden has opened his 2 point lead up to 8 points.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,879 posts)Locally this is exactly what I have been seeing , talking to people.. so I was so so pleased to see it play out statewide.. The next three are really in a horse race..
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)....right now Biden is the only "sure" thing for winning delegates. At 16, 15, and 14% those other three are in danger of not getting any if don't stay at 15% or above.
What's interesting in this poll is that 99% of those polled have a choice. Virtually no "undecided"! So if this holds, Biden will get 25 delegates, BS 16, all the others none.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mobeau69
(11,156 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,879 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Indygram
(2,113 posts)A few days ago according to people out knocking on doors in Iowa the majority of the people said they were supporting Beto, Warren or Kamala.
Link to tweet
(tweet is from someone who was on the ground canvassing people at Pride events today)
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
comradebillyboy
(10,176 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Indygram
(2,113 posts)I wasn't sure of the third name from the tweet until I was able to find it to add to my post.
I also saw a canvasser from last weekend say the same thing about Beto, Warren and I'm pretty sure Kamala. Don't let the polls get to you. Beto has an army of canvassers working hard and if 2016 taught us anything at all it should be to NOT trust the polls, lol.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JI7
(89,275 posts)she is speaking about what she is hearing in Iowa.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Thats why I asked.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Indygram
(2,113 posts)And I had seen people canvassing saying something similar last weekend that when they are knocking on doors it's Beto, Warren and I am pretty sure the third person was Kamala. It was a different canvasser last weekend.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Indygram
(2,113 posts)So that is likely why I was asked for a source.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
cwydro
(51,308 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
peggysue2
(10,842 posts)I read they'd be releasing poll numbers tonight and was definitely curious about the results. The good news? Biden is clearly in the lead with a logjam behind him: Sanders/Warren/Buttigieg.
Still early but the numbers are encouraging!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,879 posts)for Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg... Biden has a comfortable lead.. He has really picked up a lot of support since the March poll which was the last Register poll..Locally Sanders had dropped quite a bit of his support to Warren.. she is hot hot.. and Buttigieg has come on strong.. wow.. its good numbers..
edit to add.. picked up a lot of support over Sanders.. though he was not an official candidate in March.. they counted him in the poll and there we only a couple of points between them at the the time
Anything can happen.. but I am a happy camper
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
peggysue2
(10,842 posts)tight as a tick for that 2nd place slot. I expect the debates will mix things up dramatically.
We shall see!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Pick Biden as their second choice.
Im hoping that as candidates start bowing out they throw their support the the highest polling actual democratic candidate. Which their supporters are inclined to do anyway.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,879 posts)pretty happy with that..usually you have that first blush, and he has held on .. that last poll he was not in the race.. he is pretty solid..
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)And as much as I love DU, I understand we are not an accurate reflection of the party as a whole. We are much more liberal. On DU I am considered moderate. At any Lake County, Florida Democratic meeting I would be on the liberal side.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Peacetrain
(22,879 posts)Amazing isn't it
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mobeau69
(11,156 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
mobeau69
(11,156 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Peacetrain
(22,879 posts)He came out of nowhere and he is sitting at 14%.. that is a phenom move.. VP Biden did not dissolve as so many predicted.. he is holding his own and moved up.. he is doing great.. Senator Warren.. she has made up so much space.. Actually I was surprised how much Sen Sanders held on too.. talking locally.. (again that is my wheelhouse, what is happening in my county, but we Iowans do talk to each other) I had the impression he has lost more to Sen Warren..Kamala Harris is at 7%, and you have to look at it this way.. she is about the same distance between Mayor Pete as Sen Sanders is from VP Biden..these are good numbers for these candidates.. I am very pleased.. You are most likely looking at the top 5 the next President will come out of.. Unless something totally blows up someones campaign.. we are starting to sort out
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mobeau69
(11,156 posts)Unfortunately, it's not in the bag just because Joe gets the nomination. I firmly believe we need to nominate one of our younger and more progressive leaders. Joe just has too damn much baggage! It's the sure pick that's gonna backfire on us. I hope I'm wrong but I have a bad feeling how this is gonna play out.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
calguy
(5,333 posts)than Biden possibly accumulate in lifetime.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,718 posts)VP Biden's long career going up against the Psycho from fucking hell.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,718 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
angrychair
(8,733 posts)The Iowa caucus is an incredibly poor predictor of who the nominee will be and an even poorer predictor of winning the GE.
# of times since 1972 the winner of Dem Iowa caucus became the Nominee (out of 10 due to not counting 2nd term attempts of Clinton and Obama with no primary opponent of consequence):
5
# of times since 1972 the winner of Dem Iowa caucus also won the GE (out of 10, not counting 2nd term attempts of Clinton and Obama with no primary opponent of consequence):
1
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)That's it. Iowa used to be more important than it is for 2020. If I were a candidate, I think I'd be focusing heavily on what happens on March 3, instead of spending my time courting Iowans, frankly.
Why? Because California, which votes on March 3 this year, will send 495 delegates to the convention. Texas will send 262. North Caroline sends 122. Massachusetts will send 114. Even Minnesota, which is holding its first presidential primary in many years on March 3, will send 39. And so on...
Delegates matter. Odds are that this primary season will be pretty much locked up on March 4, 2020. The field will be reduced, in all likelihood, to just two candidates, and there will probably be a clear leader.
So, I'm not focused on Iowa. It might have been a crucial state in some elections, but with a field of 24 candidates, it's not crucial for this election.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden