Here is my take on the democratic primary field.

[Blue_true]

Unless Joe make a huge mistake, he is likely in the driver's seat. That leaves second place.

I think second place comes down to Senator Sanders or Senator Warren and this is what I believe the dynamic is. Senator Warren is continuously creeping up on Senator Sanders. Because they share a lot of voters, those voters will soon need to make a choice, because of that, I believe the first and maybe second debate will be critical for both Senators, more so for Senator Sanders. If Senator Sanders don't have a solid debate, his support (except for the hardest core) likely goes to Senator Warren as the best option to Biden.

[Vidal]

1. Makes sense

at least, as things look now, although a lot can change over the next nine months.

[Blue_true]

8. I get pretty much all of my news feeds from national wires,

except when I come on to DU, then I see postings about what Senator Sanders is doing, most of the posts from his loyal supporters, with an occasional post from a detractor.

What I see when I check regular news outside of DU is that Senator Sanders has largely vanished, I see news on Senator Warren and Biden. That is telling to me because the vast majority of primary voters have never heard of a site such as this, they listen to local, state, national news.

The rally crowd that Senator Warren had in Oakland a few days ago was telling, IMO. It had a lot of the twenty and thirty something people that backed Senator Sanders and the crowd looked in size like a 2016 Senator Sanders crowd.

I am not a political strategist or even pay much attention to politics, but what I believe I am seeing is Senator Warren picking up some of the momentum that Senator Sanders gained in 2016, that can't be good for Senator Sanders.

[PatrickforO]

12. Warren is pretty awesome.

Her policies are brilliant.

[flotsam]

2. I like all three

But if any of them is on top of the ticket it is nearly mandatory to pick a younger running mate.

[democratisphere]

3. Joe Biden will be our candidate.

I believe Harris will takeover second place as soon as the Democratic debates begin.

[Turin_C3PO]

6. I like Harris.

She’d chew up and spit out Pence in a debate.

[Blue_true]

9. I like Buttigieg as a dark horse.

I will have to see how well Senator Harris hold up as the race turns to Nevada and beyond before I would believe she will finish second.

[at140]

4. Sounds good and logical! nt

[Turin_C3PO]

5. That could very well happen.

Actually, I expect both Biden and Sanders to lose some support as the other candidates become more well known. I still predict Biden will win though!

[SCVDem]

7. Biden and Warren

Harris as AG toward SCOTUS.
Many others fill the cabinet.

[Blue_true]

10. I honestly don't see Biden/Warren.

Biden/Harris is much more likely if Biden takes the nomination, which absent a grotesque miscalculation by his camp, seems to be his. There is a little of animus between Biden and Warren, plus their ages are too close to form a general election ticket.

[SCVDem]

11. Disagreement here,

Isn't really!
I could get along with Biden Harris with no reservations.

Do you see Warren as AG/SCOTUS?

[Blue_true]

13. I would LOVE to see Senator Warren as Treasury Secretary.

I think that she will get banks and the Fed to doing what they should be doing to insure an equitable, growing economy that lifts everyone.

[hay rick]

14. I think Biden is a shoo-in.

He is aided by the diminished expectations wrought by Trump, his treasonous band of enablers, and his feces-gobbling base. It's difficult to imagine a Biden faux pas that wouldn't be eclipsed by Trump's toilet tweets inside 24 hours.

The contest is for VP. I would love to see Elizabeth Warren in that spot but think it is Kamala's to lose.

I supported Sanders last time around but think he will be kicked to the curb as old news and damaged goods.

[JI7]

15. Warren can do better with minorities and women

Biden would easily win those groups against Sanders .

But Warren could possibly make it competitive.

[Blue_true]

19. That is what I think happens if Bernie drops out.

It becomes a one on one matchup of Biden v Warren. You made a good point, Bernie is not going to make serious inroads in the vital African American prinary vote, but I believe Warren can because of how she explains stuff in a way that people can clearly see the benefits for them.

But I still see Mayor Pete as the person jockeying for daylight and if he sees it, he could be gone for the wire, leaving the others in his dust.

[McKim]

16. If Biden is the One: Progressive Must be VP

If Biden is the one, then he must have a progressive VP that is more than ceremonial, but adds the value of policies that appeal to the millennial. Otherwise, we are dead in the water. And this time, it had better be a more Left cabinet. Part of me wants Warren as the Sect’y of the Treasury. Sanders ideas and shaping of ideas are big winners. We need his voice in government.

[LiberalLovinLug]

18. You'd think. If they were smart. It makes a huge difference who the running mate is

I was astounded last time when they went with the choice of Tim Kaine. A 'nobody' relatively speaking on the national stage. And hasn't been any more visible after. He seemed just an uninspiring yes man who wouldn't cause waves. Hind sight is 20/20, but IF the Clinton camp had gone with a more progressive running mate, who knows? Something she would never have considered, and probably Sanders himself may have preferred staying and working in the Senate, but if she had adopted Sanders as her running mate, she would have blown away Trump regardless of Russian interference.

[Blue_true]

20. I agree, Hillary should have talked to Bernie about the VP slot.

He likely would have turned it down, but the invite would have taken the edge off more of his base.

[GulfCoast66]

25. No way that would have happened...

The most important trait of a VP, above all others, is to be a team player.

A serious candidate picks a VP based on actual governing. Not politics alone. Like Obama did.

[Blue_true]

29. You make a good point. But knowing that he would turn it diwn

or just not be selected in the end, inviting him to her Washington home to discuss the role would have been a brilliant tactical move, IMO.

[Blue_true]

22. I think Harris fits the bill, more progressive and younger. nt

[JudyM]

24. I'm afraid Biden's Cabinet will be his old crowd instead of fresh new thinkers. We need real change.

[GulfCoast66]

26. The old crowd like the president he served under?

Try again. Joe knows his role is to bring in the future of the Democratic Party.

There really is no old crowd left. Although I would not complain about a role for Robert Reich. I could deal with an old crowd like him.

[JudyM]

28. Robert Reich would be terrific. Doubt the basis of the rest of your post.

[GulfCoast66]

30. So not all 'Old Timers' are bad? I agree.

But seriously, and no disrespect meant, what old timers are you thinking about?

Politically the Clintons are out. Rahm Emanuel is not happening. I know you are scared of third way democrats, whatever that means. But I see nothing but a new generation. Discounting Warren and Sanders who are in Biden’s generation. The first of which I would love to see in a position of power.

To me Biden becomes the perfect bridge between the tried and true and the new.

But honorable people may disagree.

[JudyM]

32. "Old crowd," not old timers.

Sometimes being too well-connected ties your hands and channels your view and options. We need outside the box, desperately. If his saying that once tRump’s gone, the rethugs will come around to enact good legislation doesn’t make you cringe with its lack of awareness/wokeness, I don’t know what else to say.

[GulfCoast66]

35. Republicans will never enact good legislation.

It violates their true nature.

But we will never ‘outside the box’ trump! If we put up an ‘outside the box’ candidate the American people will choose the one they have had for 4 years. Americans want normality. Lacking that option they will go with the ‘outside the box’ they know.

That’s what the polls show. That’s what I want.

But again. Honorable people may disagree.

[MineralMan]

17. I don't think Sanders does very well in debates.

That's maybe just my opinion, but his finger-waving, grumpy demeanor isn't going to play well in a debate with 10 participants, I think. Elizabeth Warren, on the other hand, comports herself very well in such situations.

So, what I think is going to happen is that some more Sanders supporters will shift their support to Warren, further dividing the race for second place and, perhaps, dropping them both below the 15% cut-off point in some states' primaries. That would mean Biden would get all of the delegates from any state where that happened.

How will Biden do in those debates? Just fine, I think. He won't hurt his support and may gain a few points in the polls. And, then, there are all of the others, with single-digit polling, some with just 1 or 2%. If they perform well, some of them will pick up some supporters and voters. That will further cut into the higher-performing candidates.

But Biden? People are going to be looking for the candidate they think will beat Trump more and more as the primaries approach. Many who watch the debates are going to ask themselves: "Can that candidate realistically beat Trump?" People who ask that question are very likely to shift their support to Biden, who looks like a winner against Trump, if the answer is no.

[Blue_true]

21. You are right about the debates being enormous for Senator Sanders.

I think that they are less important for Senator Warren, but I still think that she, Buttigieg and Harris will be the stars of the first debate and followup debates.

Senator Sanders has not added anything new to 2016, that makes sense in a way because we have the very same problems to deal with that we had then, add to that the stinking lug called Dobald Trump. But Senator Sanders and his staff have not figured out how to state his goals differently, or how to answer tough questions without coming unglued.

My sense is that after the first debate this month, we will see a massive shift of the leftmost progressives toward Senator Warren, them seeing her as the only shot at taking the nomination from Biden.

[MineralMan]

23. You could well be right.

[customerserviceguy]

27. I concur

Although I do suspect that Pete Buttigieg will find a way to hang on through the early rounds. If he can find a way to connect with African-American voters, and maybe finish third in SC, then he will be a force to be reckoned with throughout the rest of the primary season. His debating skills are sharp, and as the field is winnowed down, he will have more and more time to get his candidacy before the electorate.

[GulfCoast66]

33. Don't disagree at all. The guy is sharp.

I support Biden, but I well remember when people thought Americans would not elect a Black man. And they did.

Buttigieg is someone to be taken seriously.

If he comes in second in SC it will be huge.

[customerserviceguy]

34. Yes. that would be

a game changer for his candidacy. At this point, I can't see it, I suspect that Kamala Harris will probably come in second, but if Pete figures out a way to tap into African-American support, yes, it could happen.

[GulfCoast66]

37. I've said for a year now Biden/Harris would be unbeatable.

Still believe that. But Pete could become a factor.

[customerserviceguy]

40. Let's see

how hard she goes after Biden in the debates. Gillibrand has nothing to lose by trying to eviscerate Biden on the Hyde Amendment, even if he does flip his position.

[ecstatic]

31. Warren runs circles around both of them. It's sad

that people can't see that. I like Biden as a person and am prepared to vote for him if he's the nominee. I saw his speech a couple weeks back, and it was excellent. Sanders? Well, between him and Warren... there's just no comparison. Warren has studied these issues for decades and can answer questions without getting loud and grumpy. Sanders can't do that. Warren is what Sanders would be if he were a lot smarter, thoughtful, and prepared.

[Blue_true]

36. The debate in a couple of weeks should start to clarify things.

I hope that Biden, Bernie, Liz and Pete end up in the same debate group. That would be electric and Zi think that Senator Warren and likely Mayor Pete will impress big.

[paulkienitz]

38. I recently said much the same on Fb

Warren and Sanders are competing for the same voters, and I think Warren has the advantages in that matchup. And for the rest of the voters, it's Joe vs whoever can best match his level of backing, which probably means Harrris. That matchup is Joe's to lose, so the debate for the path of the party is likely to come down to Warrenism vs Joe-ism.

[Firestorm49]

39. Here in WI,

Elizabeth Warren was the top pick at the WI Democratic Convention held in Milwaukee last week. Following were Biden, Sanders, Harris, and Buttegieg. “No other names really came up very much”.

I was surprised.

[Blue_true]

41. Why were you surprised? nt