Guess how many candidates drop out before Iowa.

[Funtatlaguy]

I think 14 of the 24 will drop out before a single vote is cast.

The ten that will remain in February are:
Biden
Bernie
Warren
Harris
Pete
Beto
Klobuchar
Booker
Inslee
Hickenlooper

Dropping out:
Gravel
Messam
Williamson
Moulton
Swalwell
Bennet
Bullock
Yang
Castro
Gillibrand
Ryan
Delaney
DeBlasio
Gabbard

[Sherman A1]

1. It's far too early to tell

24 hours in politics is an eternity.

[Funtatlaguy]

2. Very true. I am just bored. Lol.

[JI7]

3. the names on the first list are more likely to drop out than most of the no chance

types in the 2nd list.

[Funtatlaguy]

4. Why do you think that.

[W_HAMILTON]

5. Not very many. Less than five.

[BlueMTexpat]

6. I believe that you are

too optimistic.

[Hortensis]

7. Most likely reason would be lack of finances, of course.

Wayne Messam reportedly lost some staffers after his campaign couldn't pay them.

We've already lost one even if we didn't notice.

Richard Ojeda, who voted for Trump but got elected to the WV state senate as a Democrat, resigned to run for president in December and then was the first to drop out a couple months later. Ojeda, described as another wannabe left-wing populist leader, complained that big donors wouldn't take his calls, that he was shunned because he didn't stay in line and challenged the powers that be, etc.

"Richard who?" "The state senator who resigned his seat then tried to rescind his resignation a few days later? The one who voted for Trump?" "Oh."

Sad loss.

[Mars and Minerva]

8. How many are planning a switch to a Senate race? nt

[Hortensis]

9. That's a question I wondered about.

[Mars and Minerva]

10. They can keep their war chests and their staffs and step right in. nt

[Hortensis]

11. Okay. Also their raised profiles.

From what I've read, none of these races would be easy, so all this increased exposure would hopefully be all to the good.

[Taraman]

12. I'm loving this idea

Ditch Mitch

[Funtatlaguy]

15. Don't think this will happen.

But would love to see Beto or Castro in Texas.
Bullock in Montana.
Abrams change her mind in Georgia.

[Indygram]

16. MJ Hegar, a female war hero is running in Texas and Beto will NOT run against her

She is very popular and if she and Beto are both on the ballot Texas will go to Democrats.

[Funtatlaguy]

17. Can she beat Cornyn?

[Indygram]

18. If both she and Beto are on the ticket

I firmly believe they both win. If Beto is not on the ticket then it is less likely. Beto is loved in Texas. Right now he is NOT being treated fairly by the media. They are not only misrepresenting him but in some cases outright lying about him and because he streams everything live all of those supporters in Texas KNOW he is being treated unfairly. I think there is a good chance that Texas turnout could be depressed if Beto is not on the ticket, especially if the mistreatment and bashing of him continues. O'Rourke is one of the best candidates of my lifetime and I am absolutely disgusted at the way he is being treated.

[Amimnoch]

33. THIS! My thoughts exactly.

Her in the Senate race, Beto on the Presidential Ticket, and Texas could very well flip it... Net gain of 1 in the Senate and Trump out of office. Damn, I wish more people thought strategically like you!

Each would fuel the others campaign, and force the tRumpublicons to spend a fortune of their non-primaried war chest just trying to hold on to Texas.

[Mars and Minerva]

29. I wouldn't give up hope until the Senate primaries start. nt

[Renew Deal]

13. Doubt it

But some might go after. Some are fanatics that are there just to be there. Gabbard isn’t going anywhere. She is there for alternate reasons.

[CDerekGo]

14. Don't know about many (or all)

But it all comes down to the almighty $$$. When BIG MONEY donors stop sending checks, that's when you'll see some of these start dropping out. Have a feeling at some point Democratic National Committee may even 'politely' suggest a few to bow out. But, who knows. As someone has mentioned previously, 24 hours a an eternity in Politics.

[sop]

27. After all the incoming the DNC took in 2016, I don't see them doing much

If the Democrats aren't careful, this whole thing could turn into a three-ring circus.

[peggysue2]

19. I'm guessing at least half the herd will drop out before Iowa

After Super Tuesday I'd be surprised if there's more than 3 still standing.

We shall see.

[Funtatlaguy]

20. My guess is 4 after Super Tuesday.

Bernie, Biden, Warren or Harris, Beto or Pete.

[Politicub]

21. I don't think Gillibrand will drop out.

Last edited Sun May 26, 2019, 12:44 PM - Edit history (1)

Notwithstanding all of the issues people on DU have with her, Gillibrand strikes me as a tough and relentless in pursuit of what she believes in. She comes across well when she's on TV.

I kind of want Williamson to stay in so I can see how she answers questions during the debate. Will she quote from a Course in Miracles? This I want to know.

[Funtatlaguy]

22. If Oprah would endorse Williamson, that would help her.

[Politicub]

23. Wouldn't that be bizarre? And Dr. Oz, too.

Dr. Phil would endorse her and have her on his show every day if she writes a book and publishes it under his imprint.

[Funtatlaguy]

24. Especially if she had a dysfunctional home life to share.

[Politicub]

28. yes!!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

25. Depends on how well the money holds up, which is hard to predict just yet.

I think your list is a pretty good guess, except that IMO there won't be that many by the time the primaries start. I'm guessing it will be down to Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg, and maybe Booker.

[rampartc]

26. not many ever drop out before iowa

and new hampshire is wgere the real crazies run. vermin supreme, the naked cowbot, and all the rest.

williamson, by the way, is more popular than i thought. oprah likes her, and stripped of the self help veneer her policy and mine seem not so different.

[TeamPooka]

30. This is a 3 person race between Biden, Warren, and Harris.

[Blue_true]

31. Good guess. But I would add Beto and Hickenlooper to the drop out list.

Unless something powerful happens during the debate next month, I expect to see the first drop outs announcing soon after.

The interesting dynamic in my mind is how long Senator Sanders or Senator Warren keep their supporters from bolting to the other. The first debate may crystallize what happens in that area.

[RLG]

36. Hickenlooper maybe, O'Rourke no.

Everyone else on the second list is pretty much on point.

[brooklynite]

32. Why would Gravel drop out?

He's not actually spending any money or doing any campaigning.


FWIW, your list will be far shorter; anyone who can keep afloat on small donor dollars will hold out to see what happens in Iowa (no pre-registration) and New Hampshire (all you do is pay a fee to get on the ballot).

[Jose Garcia]

34. Gravel probably won't drop out before Iowa

Why would he? He already knows that he can't win, and it doesn't cost any money to have teenagers tweet for him.

[IrishEyes]

35. I will guess that a few will drop out.

I was watching to see who would enter the race. Now, I'm watching to see who will drop out. It is going to be an interesting election.