New Poll **Biden's Lead Widens in Democratic Primary**Big Joe 38% Bernie 16% Mayor Pete 5% Liz 5%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://echeloninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/Omnibus-May-2019_Dem-Primary.pdf

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Patrick Ruffini
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More Patrick Ruffini Retweeted Echelon
On top of a 38-16% lead over Sanders, Biden crushes with ~3-to-1 support in head-to-heads against other top-tier Democrats.

ON EDIT-Their findings for the top two mirror the A + Rated Monmouth Poll:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_052319.pdf/

and the A- rated Quinnipiac Poll:

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

and the B rated Morning Consult Poll:

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

[Celerity]

1. online poll, firm launched in summer of 2014 by top Republican digital strategist Patrick Ruffini

and pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson

https://iop.harvard.edu/get-involved/internships-careers/directors-internship-program/echelon-insights

http://echeloninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/Omnibus-May-2019_Dem-Primary.pdf

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Their findings for the top two mirror the A + Rated Monmouth Poll

Their findings for the top two mirror the A + Rated Monmouth Poll:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_052319.pdf/

and the A- rated Quinnipiac Poll:

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

and the B rated Morning Consult Poll:

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/


Seems like they're doing a good job.

[Celerity]

6. they do not mirror at all on Warren and Harris, literally shows them with less than half combined

that Monmouth does



Monmouth




Major difference percentage wise on that spread, Echelon has them at only 47.6% of the Monmouth numbers

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. They got the top two right.

[Celerity]

8. when a poll has large skew in the middle, the numbers at the top are more than likely off as well

Last edited Fri May 24, 2019, 06:30 PM - Edit history (1)

Especially noticeable is the trendline on the Echelon, it does not reflect the momentum that Harris and Warren are showing on a broad-based view of multiple other polls. Obviously Bernie and Biden are still one and two, but there is almost zero chance that all others are only at 5% or less. Biden looks overplumped in this one.

Echelon is a self-selecting online poll, those tend to be far less reliable. Just take a look at the one that shows Bernie tied with Biden.

Echelon sent off polls to 1005 people, and only 44.5% replied.

[Lucky Luciano]

2. I wish Warren could get more support. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. She was higher in the Quinn and Monmouth Poll.

[KayF]

9. why not just post the reputable ones

especially if they show the same results?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I'm not convinced they're disreputable

I'm not convinced they're disreputable, especially when they have the imprimatur of the Harvard Kennedy School Institute Of Politics:


https://iop.harvard.edu/get-involved/internships-careers/directors-internship-program/echelon-insights

[Cha]

4. Biden has a great Team!

Link to tweet

[NurseJackie]

10. This isn't turning out to be Bernie's year, is it?

Do you think he'll try again in 2024?

[Tiggeroshii]

12. I don't think Pete is going to get much of Bernie's supporters

But I imagine he will have a lot to gain from Biden's support after he shines in the next several debates. That will bring Bernie and Pete up and Joe down.

[NurseJackie]

14. I seriously doubt that. It's not a very realistic expectation or prediction.

That will bring Bernie and Pete up and Joe down.

I seriously doubt that. It's not a very realistic expectation or prediction.

I don't think Pete is going to get much of Bernie's supporters

For obvious reasons, that I won't go into here (for other obvious reasons) I agree with you.

[Tiggeroshii]

18. I'm just saying Bernie isnt likely to lose much more support, but Joe is

Any support Joe loses will bring others and Bernie closer to first.

[NYMinute]

19. I am with you.

I have convinced myself that I'll win the next powerball jackpot.

[Tiggeroshii]

20. Good luck!

:

[Tiggeroshii]

11. Let's see how this lead goes after the next several debates. I will trust a poll in december far

more easily than I would trust a poll today or even in July.

[Cary]

13. Looks lime momentum to me

[Skya Rhen]

16. This increase likely arose from Biden's performance at his launch rally where he simply shined -

just as he will shine during the debates. I can't wait...

[CentralMass]

17. The last primary votes will be cast about a year from now.

[TwilightZone]

21. Super Tuesday is March 3rd.

It's going to be over for the vast majority of candidates within a day or two of Super Tuesday. They won't make it anywhere near the last primaries, so to most of them, the dates of the last primaries are irrelevant if they don't survive ST. I suspect they're much more focused on the early primaries than when the last ballots are cast.