If Warren and Sanders want to beat Biden, one of them will need to drop out

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Since declaring his candidacy for president on April 25, former Vice President Joe Biden has taken a commanding lead in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Indeed, despite much carping from critics about how he was a paper tiger whose polling would crumple the moment it came into contact with reality, Biden's announcement bump has been sustained and substantial. On the eve of his entrance into the race, he led Bernie Sanders by an average of just over 6 points, with Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Beto O'Rourke bunched together in the mid-to-upper single digits. But while Sanders' numbers have eroded along with the others, Biden has surged, opening up nearly a 20-point gap in polls.

The only candidate to have gained traction since Biden's entry is Warren, whose relentless barrage of hotter-than-a-graphite-fire policy proposals may finally be breaking through with voters. She was even nipping at Bernie's heels in the latest Quinnipiac poll. The upshot is that we are now much closer to the basic moderate-progressive schism that many predicted and that we've seen in previous cycles. The trouble for progressives is that, even though their wing of the party might be ascendant, Sanders and Warren have the potential to divide their vote all the way to Milwaukee, allowing the more center-left Biden to claim the nomination. If they want to stop him, they're going to have to talk one of their preferred candidates into dropping out of the race.

...

https://theweek.com/articles/843133/warren-sanders-want-beat-biden-need-drop

[PoliticAverse]

8. If Sanders leaves his senate seat in Vermont it might actually go to someone officially in

the Democratic party.

The person who had Warren's seat before she got it was a Republican.

[Kylib988]

23. Doesn't Vermont's Republican governor select?

He would select a Republican to replace Bernie if it came to it.

[PoliticAverse]

24. The governor could only make an interim appointment - there has to be a special election

within 3 months.

If a vacancy occurs in the office of U.S. Senator or U.S. Representative, the Governor shall call a special election to fill the vacancy. His or her proclamation shall specify a day for the special election and a day for a special primary, pursuant to section 2352 of this title. The special election shall be held not more than three months from the date the vacancy occurs, except that if the vacancy occurs within six months of a general election, the special election may be held the same day as the general election.

See: https://legislature.vermont.gov/statutes/section/17/053/02621

The Governor may make an interim appointment to fill a vacancy in the office of U.S. Senator, pending the filling of the vacancy by special election.

https://legislature.vermont.gov/statutes/section/17/053/02622

[Blue_true]

25. Massachusetts also has a special election. And the governor can appoint an

interim seat holder only from the party of the person that is giving up the seat. Bernie has been elected to his seat several times, Warren to her's twice.

[msongs]

2. lets keep the one with a great personality who can be a team player :-). nt

[George II]

12. You're referring to Warren, of course.

[msongs]

20. ooops thought I'd fool ya lol nt

[sheshe2]

27. Warren, in that picture is to the left of Bernie.

She is also bold in a vibrant red coat.

[FreeBe]

3. I think if Warren can get ahead of Sanders, then most of Sanders people will back her in primary.

I also think there is a faction that will never back her, regardless how aligned she is with their wants. But then, I do not think those people will back any Democratic primary candidate, but Sanders, anyway.

[Lucky Luciano]

17. That's my plan. I'm with the one of the two who is ahead when the time comes. nt

[Mr.Bill]

18. I have a millenial grandaughter

who says she will vote for Bernie even if he is dead.

[Celerity]

21. do you live in Missouri?, lolol

Missouri elects dead man as senator

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/missouri-elects-dead-man-as-senator-623222.html

[FreeBe]

19. Interesting. I got an example of both type of supporters.

I hear you both.

[sheshe2]

4. I say keep the woman in red.

My Senator Elizabeth Warren.

[FreeBe]

6. Sublte, but.

I went to look at the woman in red. She is looking over the cliff in contemplation while Sanders is looking at his toes.

[SidDithers]

16. Welcome to DU...

Sid

[sheshe2]

28. ;)

[sheshe2]

29. lol

Contemplation of jumping? That is silly.

[FreeBe]

30. Warner? Nah. More viewing beyond all the issues she is willing to tackle.

I have been very impressed, surprisingly so, with Warren. She is doing well. She is tied or a point from Sanders in some polls. I saw one today where Harris was tied. I like our women moving up. I think Warren has earned it.

[Funtatlaguy]

5. New Hampshire may decide it for its 2 neighboring Senators

After Iowa, NH will be huge for both of them

[FBaggins]

7. No they don't

Unlike Trump, Biden can’t win with 35-40% of the vote. One of them dropping out doesn’t help the other enough (which just helps Biden)

[Blue_true]

26. Biden can win with 35-40% of the vote.

If he is way ahead on delegates, my guess is that anyone else besides Senator Sanders will tell their delegates to vote for him on the first ballot, that should put Biden over the top.

[still_one]

9. First of all that isn't going to happen. They will both be in through Super Tuesday, and then it

will be too late.

Let's take your scenario at face value, and say one drops out.

If Warren drops out, assuming that Warren supporters would default to Sanders I think is a false assumption. I would speculate at least 50% of those Warren supporters would move to other candidates other than Sanders, and that would not remedy the situation for the Sanders campaign as you outline.

However, if Sanders drops out, it is a different story. I think the vast majority of Sanders supporters would move over to the Warren camp, and that would change the dynamics of the Democratic primaries significantly. It still would be uncertain if that would be enough to take the lead over Biden though. There are too many candidates in the race, and where the supporters of those candidates would go to if their candidate was not competitive, is unknown.

[still_one]

14. Thanks Chin. This is all hypothetical though, since I don't see either one dropping out before

Super Tuesday

[Hortensis]

13. Courteously disagree. :) My guess, she refused to go on Fox

in part to try to get it into people's heads that they are not at all similar, neither as people nor in their policies and the way they would pursue them.

Sanders rushed to be first to go on Fox to bottom-trawl for RW voters, so she made a point of differentiating herself by denouncing it as a hate-for-profit racket and refusing to associate herself with it or with the kind of people drawn to both Trump and Sanders.

I'm guessing that because it's obviously critically important that people not connect her with Sanders so that as/if he continues to fail she doesn't get pulled down or back by association.

Which would be terribly unfortunate for us. She's a valuable, can-do leader and candidate, and we'd be fortunate to have her as president or in another top position in the next administration.

So here's a huge clue for people who imagine they're either-ors to chew on: Warren would not even support, much less formally endorse, Sanders in 2016.

[BootinUp]

15. My gut says that wouldn't help too much

Most of Warrens support would go somewhere else. And Sanders supporters (a significant number) are not going to turn out in a primary if he drops out. Just a theory of course.

[NYMinute]

22. I'd vote for Bernie

to drop out.