Experienced strategists tell Reuters they believe Biden's frontrunner position is likely sustainable

[highplainsdem]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-biden-idUSKCN1SN112

Experienced presidential strategists told Reuters that while they expect some other Democrats to eventually become top contenders, Biden’s strength is likely sustainable.

They cited two main factors: The massive Democratic field makes it difficult for any one candidate to stand out, and voters tend to be risk-averse when seeking a candidate to topple a sitting president.

In recent elections, early front-runners such as Democrat Al Gore, himself a former vice president, in 2000 and Republican Mitt Romney in 2012 largely kept a lock on the nomination, despite some bumps along the way.

In 2008, Democratic favorite Hillary Clinton was overtaken by Barack Obama to secure the nomination, but Obama took advantage of a relatively small field to steadily amass support as the top alternative to Clinton. When Clinton ran again in 2016, Sanders tried to do the same thing with a similarly small field and almost succeeded.

[left-of-center2012]

1. "they expect some other Democrats to eventually become top contenders"

That's sure to happen as some of those in low digits drop out.

[Peacetrain]

2. I am glad to read that.. because that is what I am seeing on a local level

people are starting to settle in already on who they want .. and I am seeing that people are very pro Biden.. and it looks to me on the local level a huge move from Sanders to Warren . now that is just my view from a local level.. but Biden looks very good.. and keep your eyes on Warren..

[RelativelyJones]

3. How can they say Sanders almost succeeded? He lost to Clinton by more than 3.7 mil. votes?

[Hortensis]

6. With a great deal of help from enemies foreign and domestic,

that's how, including corruption-embedded MSM, the Republican Party, wannabe-and-now-real kleptocrats, the FBI, and of course Russia.

AND, of course, all those conservative spoilers who voted for him in the primary to try to knock out Hillary but had no intention of voting for Sanders ever. Pew had to estimate and subtract their numbers from districts across the nation to come up with estimations of his genuine support.

[yardwork]

17. It's too bad that the media is so poor at reporting facts.

[Scurrilous]

4. K&R

[KPN]

5. Almost 100% of these same experts were wrong in 2016 about who would win thje GE too.

[progressoid]

10. Yeah they're quoting experienced strategist Robert Schrum who has won zero presidential campaigns.

[Hortensis]

7. I've been reading this from experts struck by the

breadth of his support across various demographics. Young, middle age, older, various colors and religions, women, men, LGBTQ, and all across the ideological spectrum of the Democratic Party. People like him.

[Raven123]

8. I'm not sure where they get the data to support their "risk-aversion" argument

Since 1900 5/19 re-election bids (if you count Ford) were unsuccessful. At least 3 took place IMO during a time when the economy was an issue (Hoover, Carter, Bush). Taft wasn’t a good campaigner, from my reading, and Ford was running in the aftermath of Watergate.

Is it possible that each re-election attempt is unique in circumstance? i wish the “strategists” would provide some context for their opinions.

[marylandblue]

12. Strategists who say "I don't know" don't get much business.

[kcr]

13. I wish they'd explain how the candidate with multiple attempts

under their belt is the candidate for the risk-averse.

[Cha]

9. I missed this..

Biden has a lot going for him beside "being risk averse" .. Thank Goodness!

[marylandblue]

11. Judging from supportive comments here on DU,

I'd say risk aversion is one of the primary motives driving his candidacy.

[Gothmog]

14. Joe Biden is the most electable candidate that the Democrats have

[marylandblue]

16. An experienced well-liked white male is percieved to be less risky.

[Gothmog]

20. We have to beat trump and for me the choice is to win

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[marylandblue]

21. Sorry, that comment was meant to be a reply to a different post.

Nonetheless, it applies. "I want to win, therefore Biden," is a spurious argument, because it implies that backing a different Democrat means you don't want to win.

[Politicub]

15. 30 Helens agree

“A sensible candidate makes sense”

Anyone remember this Kids in the Hall sketch?

https://m.

[JI7]

18. as long as Biden keeps the support he has among black voters

he will be tough to beat.

[aidbo]

19. From the article:

Robert Shrum, Kerry’s top strategist at the time, said Democrats began to panic at the thought of running Dean against Republican President George W. Bush.
Which candidate could beat Bush became “the defining question,” Shrum said.

That worked out well!