Did the Left Misread the 2020 Democratic Primary?

[brooklynite]

Politico

For a huge swath of political observers, from pundits to Democratic activists, it was obvious that Joe Biden was going to flop. Before the former vice president entered the race, he was written off as a relic. He was too old (a problem for a party pulsating with millennials and Generation Z). He was too undisciplined (a flaw exposed during his short-lived presidential campaigns in 1988 and 2008.) And he was too wedded to a bygone era of bipartisanship—a centrist out of step with rising progressive stars like Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez.

“Biden is opposing where the center of energy is in the Democratic Party,” Justice Democrats communications director Waleed Shahid said.

“I think there’s going to be a lot less air in the room than it looks like for Biden. The reality is that Biden’s time is passed,” predicted Democracy for America chairman Charles Chamberlain.

“We’re in a new moment. This is not Joe Biden’s moment,” Progressive Change Campaign Committee co-founder Adam Green said.

But it was Joe Biden’s moment, and it sure still seems to be Joe Biden’s moment. He has dominated the polls since he entered the race last month. Before Biden announced, he was at a measly 29 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, only 6 percentage points ahead of progressive favorite Bernie Sanders, who not all that long ago looked like a genuine co-front-runner. Since then, Biden has surged to 40 percent, kicking Sanders down to the mid-teens. In the past week, Biden has posted intimidating double-digit leads in polls from the early-contest states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. His dominance of the Democratic Party’s moderate wing has helped stall the rise of Mayor Pete Buttigieg while also squeezing the ability of candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris from positioning themselves as more viable progressive alternatives to Sanders.

Considering their performance in 2018...

[qazplm135]

1. having energy is great

but you know who really has energy when it comes to voting?

Older people. They come out every single time. They come out in the greatest numbers. They are the most reliable.

So, until young people figure that out and start duplicating it, then they will always be in this position of thinking they are more important than they are, and seeing their influence never quite be enough to change things in their direction.

[George II]

19. The two older age groups commonly spoken about around here historically have the highest turnout....

.....and the 18-29 age group historically has the lowest turnout.

[Politicub]

37. This has been true in every election that I have voted in since 1992

There are always older people voting. Every time.

The only exception is when I early voted for Obama in 2008. The line went for more than a block and was filled with people from all walks of life. I still well with tears when I think about the African American families in that line along with so many others.

I would love to feel that level of excitement, and yes, hope, again.

[ucrdem]

2. You know that Truman quote the progressive pundits are fond of?

The one about real and fake Republicans, with the real one getting chosen every time? Well, it looks like there's some truth in it. The real Democrat dropped a hammer and that was all she wrote.

[R B Garr]

6. Agreed, and I think that's partly why Biden's poll numbers

are so high— he’s a loyal Democrat with very deep ties within the party.

As a pundit said yesterday (actually, I think it was Chris Matthews...?) — an “unhyphenated Democrat”.

[samnsara]

17. yeah it was Chris..I saw that..and hes right

[R B Garr]

3. LOL @ the irony in this quote from Justice Democrats

“Biden is opposing where the center of energy is in the Democratic Party”.

Reality is that Justice Democrats are opposing where the Democratic Party is. Their dismal track record over time is proof. Yesterday there was a spox on MSNBC very concerned about Biden’s lead. Awww.

[ucrdem]

4. Eagerly awaiting the day we can say exactly what we mean here.

I hope the servers are in good shape because it's going to be a very busy day.

[R B Garr]

5. Oooh, me too. I think there will also be some

Caps Lock action, all finally spilling the TRUTH.

[Cha]

25. Awwww!

Before Biden announced, he was at a measly 29 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, only 6 percentage points ahead of progressive favorite Bernie Sanders, who not all that long ago looked like a genuine co-front-runner. Since then, Biden has surged to 40 percent, kicking Sanders down to the mid-teens.

Thanks, RB!

[Blue_true]

39. The Justice Democrats learned nothing from 2018.

A candidate open to their view won in two districts that were already deep blue and very progressive. Otherwise they got wiped out in the primaries. What they should do is work with regular democrats to make more districts deep blue, they will stand a much better chance of taking the seat.

[LibFarmer]

7. The organizations quoted in the OP

Last edited Thu May 16, 2019, 03:26 PM - Edit history (1)

are just like flies circling around a bull's head.

Annoying, but they can't stop the bull.

[NurseJackie]

12. OMG! That's perfect!!

[Funtatlaguy]

30. Yes, Chewbacca's son has entered the race. Spitbacca says

he wants to honor his fathers legacy and kick Trumps ass.

[NurseJackie]

31. Spitbacca! You're awful!

[Hortensis]

16. :) One of our legislators running for president spent

nearly 30 years as a famous gadfly buzzing his colleagues, with no effect except to get ignored and avoided as much as possible. It reportedly took him only a few minutes to terminally outrage and offend the leader of the progressive caucus on their first meeting. But $174,000/year with all the perks any newly arrived elite could want presumably made however he used his time in the next decades very worthwhile.

[George II]

23. Bazinga!

[comradebillyboy]

8. I don't know about the left but the pundits certainly missed the boat.

The media wants a Bernie-Trump contest because they feel it will get better ratings and more page clicks.

[Honeycombe8]

36. I'm not seeing that at all. A political talk show host is talking up Bernie or something?

What I'm seeing is covering the candidates. They'll play videos of them, say recent statements by the different ones. Report on polls.

The 2020 election will be a big deal, whoever the Democratic candidate is. They don't care if it's Sanders or Biden or Bullock. Everyone wants to know if the country will be able to get rid of Trump.

[comradebillyboy]

40. Just my opinion. Others may see it differently.

[peggysue2]

9. Joe Biden has definitely busted all the prognosticators . . .

those who screeched that Joe was yesterday's news, his poll numbers would collapse and the electorate was looking for radical change.

That was then, this is now. However, wisps of that sentiment are still floating around the ether: once voters know all the dirt on Joe, they'll surely change their minds or Biden's half-way measures are unacceptable to the Democratic electorate or electability is a poor measure of success.

Hello?

The so-called dirt is out there. Nada. The half-way measures? Not registering. Electability? In almost every poll out in the Netherlands where real people live, the electability factor is mentioned: we want someone to take the hideous Donald Trump to the woodshed, beat him senseless, a full repudiation, and then get on with healing and restoring the country.

Who can do that effectively? The rising chorus says Joe Biden.

The pundits and politically aware might hate the idea of the electability factor. The American public does not. Because unless we win in 2020, the dissembling of the country will continue. Democratic voters and those leaning left across the country know that. Even the Never-Trumpers know that. We have a lot of great people running. But there's only one who people feel confident in, a candidate who can do what must be done:

Joe Biden/2020.

[emmaverybo]

34. Yes! What you said.

[abqtommy]

10. Politico

is not one of my trusted sources.

[brooklynite]

11. This is an opinion piece. You can accept the opinion or not.

As for Politico, it reports on politics. Pro and Con.

[LanternWaste]

14. At least it avoids the post hoc ergo prompter hoc arguments. You should try that too.

At least it avoids the post hoc ergo prompter hoc arguments. "You can accept the fallacy or not."

"Considering their performance in 2018..."

[brooklynite]

15. Nothing wrong with my argument...

Take a look at the endorsements of Justice Democrats and Our Revolution, and count how many were successful. We won the House with centrist candidates in suburban marginal districts.

[abqtommy]

41. And you can accept my opinion or not. Interesting

how that works, innit?!

[MineralMan]

13. Only maybe 1% of the voting population in this country has any freaking

idea what the Justice Democrats, Democracy for America, or the Progressive Change Campaign Committee are. The other 99% have never heard of any of the people quoted in that article.

You know what, though? All of them know who Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are. 75-80% know something about Elizabeth Warren. 60% have heard of Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg.

Those spokespersons for the "Left" in that Politico article are about as influential politically as I am. Their members know who they are and might think they have the right answers, but nobody else knows or cares.

In fact, I'd be willing to bet that less than 15% of the voting population has ever heard of Politico or knows that it's a website.

Politics is about realities. It's not about people nobody has heard of.

Silliness!

[crazytown]

20. 'The self appointed left'

There is a rich left tradition within the Democratic Party, as there is a deep mainstream (I hate the word moderate) and conservative tradition.

I doubt if insiders with their ears to the ground, were all that surprised by how Joe Biden’s campaign took off.

Senator Sanders himself May have been surprised how his support wilted, but then again, he is not a Democrat.

[MineralMan]

32. Yup.

[GulfCoast66]

26. Excellent post. I love DU. But we do not represent the average democratic voter.

Few Democratic voters know about DU.

And if you read the beliefs of Justice Democrats, they are proudly not democratic voters. Good thing for them that even fewer have read their platform.

Not that it is all bad. But not one that can win a national election.

[emmaverybo]

35. Play it Again, Sam: "Politics is about realities. It's not about people nobody has heard of."

[FreepFryer]

18. "A tale told by an idiot; full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." -- any actual Democrat

In respons to this Bullshit editorial. This spoilerism is a tired, beaten down one-trick pony that should have been put out to pasture a long time ago.

Still, some opportunistic sociopaths would rather invent and exploit anti-Democratic critique than build a real coalition. The latter takes talent, leadership and time... and the former takes only a lack of honor and conscience.

[mcar]

21. Oh, is it over?

I guess I fell asleep for a year.

[BlueWI]

22. Maybe we'll know if the left misread the primary

once there's a primary?

[Cha]

24. And, this is Why I'm so Grateful

Biden entered the race

Before Biden announced, he was at a measly 29 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, only 6 percentage points ahead of progressive favorite Bernie Sanders, who not all that long ago looked like a genuine co-front-runner. Since then, Biden has surged to 40 percent, kicking Sanders down to the mid-teens.

[Raven123]

27. Wait - did we vote already? You mean I missed it?

[OregonBlue]

28. Seems to me after all this ugliness and hatred people might

want someone older and kinder and Joe is known for being kind.

[Gothmog]

29. Joe Biden is running a general election campaign which is appropriate

Link to tweet

[Scurrilous]

33. ...

[Blue_true]

38. Adam Greene has consistently underestimated to influence of POC in the Democratic Party.

POC tend more moderate to moderate-liberal. So Biden is more appealing to them than Senator Sanders is. Adam Greene sees that party as being dominated by the far left, a view that is way inaccurate.