PA Biden v Trump: 60-36% Women; 44-49% Men

[crazytown]

Biden v Trump 41-54% White Men
Biden v Trump 57-37% White Women
Biden v Trump 53-42 Overall



https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620

In 2016, only 18% of Democratic Voters were white men. How about energising the 82% rather than endless talk about appealing to this sorry bunch of losers.

[highplainsdem]

1. Greg Sargent tweet about those numbers, plus more data:

Sargent's tweet:

Link to tweet

Also from this new Q-poll of Biden and Trump in Pennsylvania:

Biden outperforms a bit w/ noncollege whites, losing by 38-56

Biden has shocking leads w/ college educated whites (63-32) and women (60-36)

This, even though 54% say they're better off financially than in 2016!

By Biden outperforming with noncollege white, I think Sargent is drawing a comparison to 2016, when HRC lost that demographic 28-67, a 39-point loss with this group compared to 18 points for Biden in this poll.

I'm using 2016 figures from this source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

Trump beat HRC with college educated whites by 4 points in 2016. Biden's winning them by 29 points.

With women voters in 2016, HRC beat Trump 54-42, 12 points. Biden is beating Trump with this group by 24 points.

I didn't see anything in that old article about Trump's percentage of the 2016 vote with white men, but found it in other sources as 63%, with 32% voting for Clinton, a 31 point loss.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/17/behind-trumps-win-in-rural-white-america-women-joined-men-in-backing-him/

This new PA poll shows Biden still losing white men to Trump, but it's 41-54, only a 13 point loss.

Anyway, I think it's too early to write off white male voters. Biden can apparently win more of them than some other Democratic candidates, while still winning by large margins with groups that usually support Dems.

[crazytown]

2. White Women 57-37 is the most stunning of al

2016 Exit Poll White Women
Trump 52 - 43

9 points down to 20 points up
That doesn’t happen in American politics.

Edit. Thanks for the references, I’ll be reading through them. These are exciting numbers.

[highplainsdem]

4. Well, the swing toward the Democrat obviously isn't all because of Biden, since Trump's alienated

so many people.

But the numbers show that Biden, as a candidate, can really capitalize on those changes in the electorate.

Greg Sargent seems to prefer Warren to the other candidates

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/05/08/only-one-democrat-fully-grasps-threat-trump-poses/

so seeing him so impressed by these poll numbers, how well Biden was doing, really got my attention earlier today. But I didn't take the time then to compare Biden's poll numbers to the 2016 election results. That was eye-opening.

[crazytown]

7. Yes. That's how I'm reading it too.

Not - this amount is Trump, and this amount is Biden, but this is how Biden, Democratic Party’s best candidate, can capitalize on the electoral climate.

It’s a long road for one of the other candidates to match that appeal.

[LovingA2andMI]

6. It's about a Women's Right to Choose....

Trump will lose White Women based on this issue as well as many other issues.

[crazytown]

8. This poll was before Alabama HB 314.

Abortion is going to be a catastrophe for the GOP.

[Cha]

3. I wondered what that meant..

"outperforms" but still losing to trump with noncolllege whites! smh.

Biden outperforms a bit w/ noncollege whites, losing by 38-56

Thanks, highplains

[highplainsdem]

5. True, he's still losing noncollege whites, but doing 21 points better than HRC in 2016.

[crazytown]

9. The last line a Dem nominee won the white vote was LBJ

The closet after that was Clinton 1996: 44-46
This result in PA 45-49 is very encouraging, but does not include the South. IMO the huge swing away from the GOP amongst white women, is something Dems can capitalize on right actress the country.

Obviously it’s great news for Joe, but very good news for all Democrats.

[Cha]

10. YAY!