Bernie Sanders
Related: About this forum538 Sacrifices Integrity to Go After Sanders on Independents
by Jim Naureckas
I used to be an admirer of Nate Silver and his empirical approach to covering elections. Not that the horserace ought to be the center of campaign journalism, but since media are going to focus on predicting whos going to win, it seemed like Silver was approaching it as public opinion research rather than tea-leaf reading. When he left his perch at the New York Times to launch 538 as a freestanding enterprise, I wished him well in his pursuit of journalism that was based on testable information rather than on the opinions of powerful people.
My first hint that all was not right in Silverland was when he confidently declared, despite Donald Trumps high poll ratings in 2015, that he would not be the Republican nominee (538, 8/11/15): Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. Polling more than a year before the election famously doesnt mean much, but this is a reason to not make predictions, not to predict that the opposite of the polls will happen. But not making predictions is hard to do if youre in the prediction business, and so in the absence of useful data Silver and his crew substituted their own punditrywith embarrassing results.
As this campaign has gone along, it seems to me that the 538 crew have at times gone beyond the realm of punditry into the realm of hackerythat is, not just treating their own opinions as though they were objective data, but spinning the data so that it conforms to their opinions.
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http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/05/29/538-sacrifices-integrity-go-after-sanders-independents
jamese777
(546 posts)HubertHeaver
(2,522 posts)After all, he's right 100% of the time.
dreamnightwind
(4,775 posts)Excellent work by F.A.I.R. Sad to see the behavior this election from 538, they almost seem like one of the companies Brock bought (C.R.E.W. (arrgh, C.R.E.W. used to be excellent), others I can't recall at the moment).
PDittie
(8,322 posts)talk about baseball stats than politics.
dreamnightwind
(4,775 posts)but the baseball stats aren't ruining my country, so I'll keep banging my head on the political walls while the baseball game is on in the background.
He got a lot of cred from his sports work, and then for awhile it translated to predicting political outcomes. Not sure what changed over there, but he's been way off all election, reeks of bias and monetary reward clouding his methodology.
PDittie
(8,322 posts)Especially the ranting about our current state of political play with MLB.com on in the corner of my eye.
He and Kos and Maddow have all drunk the Blue Koolaid, can no longer discern what's good for party from what's good for country.
n2doc
(47,953 posts)About all the deals and promises that went into this campaign. Because a lot of people appear to have sold their souls to the Clinton Group.
PDittie
(8,322 posts)Love the toons, doc. About the only reason left for me to keep coming back here. If you shift them elsewhere, let me know, please?
n2doc
(47,953 posts)Unfortunately their site software limits posts to 8 toons max, so it is a bit more work and I have just been posting the bern group toons+ my favorites from the others.
If I transition there full time I will probably try to post more of the toons.
PDittie
(8,322 posts)as well as the explicitly stated purpose of electing Bernie president (i.e. limiting discussion) has precluded my activity at that site to a great degree as well. There's a bit of purpose-reimagining that I hope the founders are undergoing (or considering undergoing).
Some of us are shortly going to be outcasts looking to immigrate, and I don't want to drown on rough seas or rocky shoals. Almost any port in a storm, but the least difficult one to transition to is preferred.
n2doc
(47,953 posts)But it is an alternative. I figure I will give it a shot, if it devolves into something I can't abide by after June then so be it and will keep looking. Same goes with this place.
Phlem
(6,323 posts)Overtly so.