Hillary needs 70% of remaining delegates to secure the nomination

[justaddh2o]

Here's my math:

Total 2016 delegates (no supers): 4,051

Current delegates by person:
1,644 (Hillary) + 1,364* (Bernie) = 3,008

*I added the 48 delegates from Washington state to Bernie's count, since they're missing from the google totals.

Remaining delegates (left to vote): 4,051 - 3,008= 1,043

Number of delegates required to secure the nomination: 2,383

Hillary needs: 2383-1644= 739

739/ 1043 = .708 (70%)

It's not over and won't be until after the convention. Please let me know if I've got anything wrong here...

Source: google

Edited: Fixed Bernie's total -- should be 48 not 50 delegates from WA to add in.

[in_cog_ni_to]

1. I do believe that's what I read on Reddit last night too. Of course, the corrupt corporate owned MSM

ALWAYS leaves that very important salient Point out of their propaganda.

The queen can't win enough pledged delegates either. Bernie is the ONLY CANDIDATE that can beat Trump in the GE.

He has the perfect argument to make at the convention. He can win the GE, and queenie will lose it in a landslide.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[LiberalArkie]

2. This is an exciting time. Bernie people will stand in the rain and in the snow through anything.

Bernie does best when people believe he doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell of winning. The bots feel he is though and in no way pull it off. "Bernie is quitting and laying off people". duh, of course. If it keeps working, then maybe, just maybe some of those bots will not take the time to show up to vote. After all Hill has it won already, really why should they take the time and effort to vote.

[HubertHeaver]

3. At this point, Bernie needs all outstanding delegates to win outright.

Hillary needs >70% to win outright. This is the scenario the supers were created to handle. The Party Pros take hold of the situation out in the open rather than the "group of bleary-eyed men in a smoke-filled room in the wee hours of the morning" handing down the decision.

[samrock]

4. I do not understand.. if total number of delegates are 4051...

Wouldn't the winner need 2026?? In that case ( by your calculations)..Hillary has 1644. sooo she would need 382.. therefore 382/1043 = 0.366 (37%) of the delegates.. if you are not going to count super delegates.. than don't use them in your math...

[justaddh2o]

5. Supers

I'm not using them. As I understand it, a candidate needs 2,383 delegates to secure the nomination. At least that's what google says. If so, then she won't have enough regular delegates -- those from voting/caucuses -- to secure the nomination before the convention (when the supers get to vote). That's my understanding anyway. Perhaps you have a different understanding?

I'm using the 4051 number because that's the total number of delegates available from voting / caucuses. So that's the number that should be subtracted from their current totals, since those too only come from voting/caucuses.

Let's put it this way: if either candidate were strong enough, they'd get 2,383 from the voting in the primary and wouldn't need to add in the supers. But neither one is. So we go to a convention and try to win over the supers to our candidate's side. Sounds like democracy at work to me. Right?

[drm604]

6. And by the same reasoning

Bernie would need 98%, which is even more unlikely. I support Bernie but math is math.

Please correct my math if I'm wrong. I want to be wrong.

[JDPriestly]

7. The OP is pointing out what Hillary would need to go into the convention

as the candidate and win on the first ballot without super delegate votes.

Super delegates are not really pledged until the convention and they vote. They are free to change their minds until then.

Let's say that Trump wins the Republican nomination and the super delegates or enough of them decide that they do not think Hillary can win the debates or election against Trump. They could vote for Bernie and he could win, not Hillary.

[justaddh2o]

8. Yes, exactly.

Thank you for your clarification.

Further there's the 180+ uncommitted super delegates-- ones who have not said as yet who they're going to vote for. So if these folks decided to support Bernie, that could start some momentum rolling in his favor. It seems to me that the convention should be pretty interesting.

[findrskeep]

9. K & R

I'm thinking the same thing...I still get the feeling Bernie is going to win...somehow. This is important, let's keep it visible.